Summer in March, 2012, draws to a close

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:54 PM GMT on March 23, 2012

The most incredible spring heat wave in U.S. and Canadian recorded history is finally drawing to a close today, after a ten-day stretch of unprecedented record-smashing intensity. Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many spring temperature records broken, and by such a large margin. Airports in fifteen different states have set all-time records for March warmth, which is truly extraordinary considering that the records were set in the middle of the month, instead of the end of the month. The 29.2°C (85°F) measured at Western Head, Nova Scotia yesterday was the third warmest temperature ever recorded in Canada in March, according to Environement Canada and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (top two records: 31.1°C at Alberini Beaver Creek BC on March 29th 1926, and 29.4°C in 1921 at Wallaceburg.) Michigan's all-time record for March warmth was toppled on Wednesday, when the mercury hit 90°F at Lapeer. The previous record, 89° at Lapeer in 1910, was matched at three stations yesterday--Ypsilanti, Dearborn, and Lapeer. The duration, areal size, and intensity of the Summer in March, 2012 heat wave are simply off-scale, and the event ranks as one of North America's most extraordinary weather events in recorded history. Such a historic event is difficult to summarize, and in today's post I will offer just a few of the most notable highlights.

Figure 1. Clear skies over the Eastern U.S. caused by a blocking ridge of high pressure on March 21, 2012, are apparent in this visible satellite image. The comma-shaped cloud pattern over the Central U.S. is associated with a "cut-off" low pressure system. This low is moving over the Eastern U.S. today through Saturday, and will bring an end to "Summer in March" over the U.S. and Canada. Image credit: NOAA's Environmental Visualization Lab, and modified by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central.

Low temperatures beating previous high temperature records for the date

I've never seen a case where the low temperature for the date beat the previous record high. This happened on at least four occasions during "Summer in March, 2012":

The low temperature at Marquette, Michigan hit 52° on March 21, which was 3° warmer than the previous record high for the date.

The low at Mt. Washington, NH on March 21 (44°) beat the previous record high for the date (43°.)

The low temperature for International Falls, Minnesota on March 20 bottomed out at 60°F, tying the previous record high for the date.

The low temperature in Rochester, Minnesota on March 18 was 62°F, which beat the previous record high for the date of 60°.

Breaking all-time April records for warmth in March

Not only did many locations in Canada set records for their all-time warmest March day during "Summer in March, 2012", a number also broke their record for warmest April day:

St. John, New Brunswick hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 21. Previous March record: 17.5°C on March 21, 1994. April record: 22.8°C.

Kejimkujik Park, Nova Scotia hit 27.9°C on March 21. Previous March record: 22.5°C on March 30, 1986. April record: 25°C on April 27, 1990.

Yesterday, I reported that Halifax, Nova Scotia hit 27.2°C (81°F) on March 22, 2012. Previous March record: 25.8° set the previous day. April record: 26.3°C, set on April 30, 2004. However, Rob Paola, a meteorologist with Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Center in Winnipeg, Manitoba, wrote to tell me that Halifax did not break its April record: In fact, Halifax recorded a temperature of 29.5°C on April 28, 2009. For some reason, that stat does not show up on EC's normal/extremes climate site for Halifax, which only has data up to 2006 for extremes. More details on my blog at http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/

Breaking daily temperature records by more than 30°F

It is exceptionally rare for a weather station with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily temperature record by more than 10°F. During "Summer in March, 2012", beating daily records by 10° - 20°F was commonplace, and many records were smashed by over 20°. Two stations broke records by more than 30°F, which is truly surreal. Western Head, Nova Scotia hit 29.2°C (85°F), yesterday, breaking their previous record for the date (10.6°C in 1969) by 18.6°C (33°F.) Yesterday's high temperature was 24°C (44°F) above average. Pellston, Michigan in the Northern Lower Peninsula--dubbed "Michigan's Icebox", since it frequently records the coldest temperatures in the state--hit 85° on March 21. This broke the previous record for the date (53° in 2007) by 32°, and was an absurd 48°F above average.

Breaking daily temperature records nine consecutive days or more

It is extremely rare for stations with a 50+ year period of record to break a daily high temperature record for seven or more days in a row. The longest such streak of consecutive high temperature records at International Falls, Minnesota, was a 5-day period March 3 - 7, 2000. The city has tied or broken their high temperature for the date ten consecutive days, as of yesterday. This streak will likely end today, as the high is predicted to be 60 - 65, and the record high for the date is 66. Chicago, Illinois has tied or broken their daily high temperature record the past nine days in a row. This ties the nine-day streak of record highs set on August 26 - September 3, 1953. Other cites that have set daily high temperature records the past nine days in a row include Fort Wayne and South Bend, Indiana. Numerous cities have broken high temperature records on seven consecutive days during "Summer in March, 2012", including Gaylord, Pellston, and Traverse City in Michigan.

Figure 2. All-time high temperature records set in March 2012 for the U.S. The grey icons show locations where the March record was broken on multiple days. Image taken from wunderground's new record extremes page, using data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

The big picture: the impacts of "Summer in March, 2012"

I've always said living in Michigan would be much more bearable if we could just get rid of March. March weather here is always horrible, with brutal cold, high winds, damaging ice storms, heavy snow, interminable cloudy stretches with no sun, all interspersed with a few teasing warm spells. Well, this year, I got my wish. This March, we started with twelve days of April weather, followed by ten days of June and July weather, with nine days of May weather predicted to round out the month. This has been a huge benefit to the economy--vastly reduced heating costs, no snow removal bills, and far fewer traffic accidents due to icy roads. However, there is major downside to the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave. The growing season is now in full swing, five weeks early. A damaging freeze that will severely impact the fruit industry and other sensitive plants is very likely. Indeed, the forecast calls for lows in the upper 20s in the cherry-growing region of Michigan near Traverse City on Monday night. The exceptional March warmth has also melted all the snow in the northern U.S. and southern Canada, drying out the soils and setting the stage for a much warmer than average summer, and an increased chance of damaging drought conditions. The early loss of snowpack will also likely cause very low flow rates in the major rivers in late summer and early fall, reducing the amount of water needed for irrigation of crops. Low flows may also cause problems for navigation, limiting commercial barge traffic on Midwest rivers.

Links

Andrew Freedman of Climate Central interviewed a number of climate scientists who are experts in studying the link between extreme weather events and climate change for his post, Global Warming May Have Fueled March Heat Wave Odds.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt will be posting a more comprehensive summary of the "Summer in March, 2012" heat wave this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post. I expect I'll be hard at work this weekend, mowing my lawn for the first time ever in March!

Jeff Masters

2012 03 22 Neighbor's Magnolia Tree drops its blossoms (gatyamgal)

Because of our week of record breaking Temps here in Bettendorf, IA, the neighbor's tree bloomed and lost its blossoms 3 weeks early. What will April bring?

Spring Landscape (thebige)

Jefferson Memorial (KEM)

Cherry blossoms in Washington DC.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2059

Rain Threatens to Plague Another NASCAR Race Sunday

Crew members push driver Elliott Sadler's car down the starting grid in the rain before the NASCAR Daytona 500 Sprint Cup series auto race at Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Fla., Sunday, Feb. 26, 2012. (AP Photo/John Raoux)

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Mar 24, 2012; 5:41 PM ET

Nearly a month after causing the Daytona 500's first postponement in history, rain threatens to interfere with another NASCAR race on Sunday.
NASCAR officials are set to drop the green flag at 3 p.m. EDT in Fontana, Calif., Sunday, kicking off the Auto Club 400, the latest race in the Sprint Cup Series.
Unfortunately for NASCAR drivers and fans, rain is expected to be moving into the area around the same time.
It is possible that the rain holds off until after the start of the race, but that will only delay the inevitable.
"It is unlikely that the entire race will be run rain-free," stated AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.
The wet weather heading to Fontana is accompanying the same storm delivering rain and mountain snow to all of California this weekend.

It is not just the rain that those in attendance at Fontana will be dealing with, but also unseasonably cool air. Fontana will only record a high of 62 degrees on Sunday, when highs in the lower 70s are more typical.
A bit of a breeze will develop in the afternoon, but will pale in comparison to the winds set to whip the Southwest's interior as Sunday progresses.
In the event of a postponement, officials will not have to wait long to reschedule the race.
Dry weather and some sunshine will return Monday as high pressure builds overhead. Spectators may still need a jacket this day with temperatures remaining on the cool side.

Rain Threatens to Plague Another NASCAR Race Sunday

Numerous Violent Thunderstorms Striking Southeast

Many in the Southeast will witness ominous-looking skies this afternoon. Photo submitted by AccuWeather.com Facebook fan Michael G. on Friday of storms rolling into Terre Haute, Ind.

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Mar 24, 2012; 11:18 AM ET

The same storm system that sparked Friday's deadly tornadoes in the Ohio Valley and Deep South threatens to leave communities damaged in the Southeast into tonight.
As of 3:30 p.m. EDT, numerous violent thunderstorms were rumbling across southwestern Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina.
Baseball-sized hail from one of the thunderstorms in southwestern Virginia broke windows of a home at Groundhog Mountain along the Blue Ridge Parkway.
In South Carolina, quarter-sized hail covered the ground of some homes near Salley.
Hail will remain one of the main threats from the thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds, flooding rain and isolated tornadoes are other serious concerns.
Later this afternoon, these thunderstorms should congeal into a more organized squall line across the Piedmont region of the Carolinas and neighboring southern Virginia.
RELATED:
Live Tracking: Follow the Severe Weather on Radar
Deadly Tornadoes Strike Ohio Valley, South
Dying to Shoot Tornadoes
Cities set to be targeted by the squall line later this afternoon include Charlotte and Winston-Salem, N.C., Columbia, S.C., and Danville, Va.

The squall line will shift to the coastal plain of the Carolinas this evening, passing over Raleigh, N.C., in the process. Charleston, S.C., Rocky Mount, N.C., and Norfolk, Va., are other cities at risk through the overnight hours.
Where damage does not ensue, rain accompanying the thunderstorms will be a welcome sight to the drought-stricken Southeast.
"However, this is not the type of system that will bring lasting relief," cautioned AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
"The rain will produce some runoff which will be captured by reservoirs and lakes, but much more is needed."
While numerous damaging thunderstorms rumble to the east, residents in the Tennessee Valley should also keep an eye to the sky today. The stage is set for a few thunderstorms to turn severe with powerful winds and hail.
A similar danger will linger across eastern North Carolina on Sunday as the potent storm slowly pushes offshore.
Dry weather will replace the severe weather threat across the East Coast on Monday. The danger will instead exist across the northern Plains this day as the storm impacting California this weekend emerges from the Rockies.

Numerous Violent Thunderstorms Striking Southeast

Hawaii's Largest Hailstone Ever Has Been Confirmed

Hailstone photograph courtesy of the US National Weather Service Honolulu and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

By Vickie Frantz, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Mar 24, 2012; 9:13 AM ET

The National Weather Service has measured the largest hailstone to fall in Hawaii since 1950.
The hailstone was collected by a Windward Oahu resident in the neighborhood of Aikahi.
The official measurements of the hailstone were 4.25 inches long, 2.25 inches tall and 2 inches wide.
It is reported to be the largest hailstone to fall in Hawaii since the hail record keeping began in 1950.

Hawaii's Largest Hailstone Ever Has Been Confirmed

Northeast Cold Blast Follows Weekend Rain

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Mar 24, 2012; 6:10 AM ET

A storm finally moving out of the Plains will deliver some rain to the Northeast this weekend. However, a quick blast of cold air follows the storm with a freeze and frost.
The same storm responsible for flash flooding in the South Central states this week is picking up speed and will pass through the Eastern states this weekend.
While the bulk of the rain will be left in the Ohio Valley and South, some drenching downpours will reach into the mid-Atlantic Saturday into Sunday. Some lesser pockets of rain can reach into portions of New England as the weekend progresses.

The rain will come at a time when many have had little time to enjoy the record-breaking warmth from the past week.

However, folks who have been planting flowers and vegetables this week will want to take notice of a major freeze potential on the way Monday night.
Temperatures forecast to be more than 50 degrees lower early next week, compared to the 80-degree temperatures experienced of late, will be a big shock in itself.
AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures in some locations could be as much as 70 degrees lower Monday night, compared to the afternoons of this past week.
Some locations will have calm conditions and a frost. Others will have below-freezing temperatures and wind that can cause great damage to tender plants.
MORE INFORMATION: Freeze Potential High for the Northeast
Nurseries and garden centers that have racks of plants outdoors may want to move them indoors.

Northeast Cold Blast Follows Weekend Rain

Deadly Tornadoes Strike Ohio Valley, South

A tornado-damaged home in Fern Creek, Ky. (WAVE-TV via Twitter user @JaimieWeiss)

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Mar 24, 2012; 6:03 AM ET

Tornadoes ripped through six states from Missouri to Georgia on Friday, killing one and leaving destruction in their wake.
The lower Ohio Valley, hit hard by a large outbreak earlier this month, bore the worst of the severe weather, with at least a half dozen twisters touching down throughout the afternoon hours.
In Jefferson County, Ill., a 60-year-old woman died when her mobile home was tossed from its loose foundation into a nearby farm field by a tornado. Another twister injured a young boy in a nearby town, according to the county coroner.
RELATED: Pictures, Videos of Friday's Tornadoes
In stark contrast to the outbreak earlier this month, most of the tornadoes were short-lived and were thinner by comparison. Such funnels, known as "rope tornadoes," often inflict narrow paths of damage and rarely exceed an EF-1 classification, with winds of 112 mph or less.
National Weather Service storm surveyors have already declared damage from two tornadoes, one in Troy, Ala., and the other near Heritage Creek, Ky., as being of EF-1 variety.

Road crews clear hail off I-74 in Shelby County, Ind. (WTHR-TV) More photos of the hail are available at the WTHR-TV website.
The tornado which hit Troy caused some home and barn damage south of the town's airport, while the Heritage Creek tornado was just 40 yards wide and was on the ground for only five minutes.
Other scattered severe storms stretching from central Illinois to Florida dropped large hail and produced damaging wind gusts.
Hail from one severe thunderstorm that passed through Shelbyville, Ind., on Friday evening covered the ground 3 to 4 inches deep in some areas. In a scene reminiscent of the middle of winter, road crews had to be called in to clear off a busy stretch of Interstate 74.
The severe weather on Friday was just another example of how the 2012 tornado season is already off to a running start, fueled in part by the unusually warm weather.
Unfortunately, more gusty storms will be on the prowl later today from the Southeast to the lower mid-Atlantic as the same storm system responsible for Friday's tornadoes heads toward the coast.

"The storms [later today] have the potential to bring frequent lightning strikes, urban flooding, strong wind gusts and hail," says AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
While thunder could rumble anywhere from the eastern Great Lakes to the Gulf coast, severe weather looks most likely from Virginia to Georgia.
The storms and the downpours they produce could have a silver lining. Heavy rain will fall over a part of the country still suffering from drought conditions.
In the grand scheme of things, the storms today will offer little relief.
"The rain will produce some runoff which will be captured by reservoirs and lakes, but much more is needed," adds Sosnowski
.

Deadly Tornadoes Strike Ohio Valley, South

AccuWeather.com - Ken Clark | Weekend Storm on Track/NASCAR Race Threatened

Mar 23, 2012; 12:34 PM ET

My thoughts on the weekend storm from yesterdays posting has not changed a lot, but there are some minor changes. That storm is now west of Oregon And moving south. By the way, its nice to see GOES 15 back up and running this afternoon.

Here are the changes from yesterday.

-A little slower arrival time of the rain for interior central and all of southern California. Models are pretty close now. Looks like rain arrives in interior Central California in the first few hours after sunrise Sunday and the same goes for places like Ventura County. Rain should arrive in the morning across Los Angeles County and spread east and south arriving no later than early afternoon southern Orange County to San Diego County and the Inland Empire.

-Snow levels will not be quite as low as thought yesterday though all the ski resorts should still pick up the amount of snow I said. Snow level in the Sierra will start out around 5,000 to 5,500 feet then drop to 4,000 feet at night (after the heaviest precipitation has moved away). In southern California the snow level starts out at 6,000 feet or a little higher, then drops sown to 4,500 to 5,000 feet at night. This should mean no travel problems over the southern California passes.

-The storm is mostly over Monday though a couple of morning showers linger over the Sierra, San Diego County and north facing mountain slopes in southern California.

NASCAR is in southern California this weekend at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana. Races Friday night and Saturday will be fine. But the big race on Sunday, The Auto Club 400, is going to run into wet weather problems. Of this I have no doubt The race starts at Noon. It will be close but there is the chance it may not be raining right at Noon. But it will start to rain during the race and hard enough to cause some major headaches for race officials.

AccuWeather.com - Ken Clark | Weekend Storm on Track/NASCAR Race Threatened

AccuWeather.com - Climate Change | Greenhouse Gases continue to Steadily Increase

Mar 23, 2012; 12:24 PM ET

It's still business as usual..........

Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to steadily increase, according to NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory.

The latest readings from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii indicate that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have increased to 393.65 parts per million as of February 2012.

Here are two common questions that NOAA has answered from their FAQ section........

What is the greenhouse effect?

The Sun, which is the Earth's only external form of heat, emits solar radiation mainly in the form of shortwave visible and ultraviolet (UV) energy. As this radiation travels toward the Earth, the atmosphere absorbs about 25% of it, and about 25% is reflected by the clouds back into space. The remaining radiation travels unimpeded to the Earth and warms its surface. The Earth releases back to space the same amount of energy it has absorbed from the Sun. However, the Earth is much cooler than the Sun, so the energy re-emitted from the Earth's surface is much weaker, in the form of invisible longwave infrared (IR) radiation, sometimes called heat radiation. If you stand close to a hot object, but do not touch it, you can feel how the IR radiation heats your skin, although you cannot see the IR rays.

Gases that absorb and trap this IR radiation, such as water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are known as "greenhouse gases". The atmosphere acts like the glass in a greenhouse, allowing much of the shortwave solar radiation to travel through unimpeded, but trapping a lot of the longwave heat energy trying to escape back to space. This process makes the temperature rise in the atmosphere just as it does in the greenhouse. This is the Earth's natural greenhouse effect and keeps the Earth 33 °C warmer than it would be without an atmosphere, at an average 15 °C (59° F).

How can minor atmospheric gases have such a large impact on climate?

The major gases, nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and argon (Ar), which together comprise about 99.8% of the atmosphere, do not absorb visible light, nor infrared light. If the atmosphere contained only those three gases, the radiation would go right through without any effect on the heating of the atmosphere or surface. That leaves it to the minor gases such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and others to absorb infrared light. The total mass of the atmosphere is very large, about 5 x 1021 grams, or 5 million times a billion metric ton. The amounts of the minor gases are therefore still very large, sufficient to cause the absorption of a major fraction of infrared light in the atmosphere.

A look back at the long term trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration going back to 1000 AD with the help of ice core data.

------

All images courtesy of NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory.

AccuWeather.com - Climate Change | Greenhouse Gases continue to Steadily Increase

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Clues about April

Mar 23, 2012; 9:49 AM ET

Here is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF long range model weekly forecast output.

The model no longer predicts widespread, extreme warmth, but still keeps large parts of the U.S. and southern Canada warmer than normal through April, while the core of the cold remains across the far north.

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Clues about April

AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Summer Warmth Ending in the Northeast, But Not in the Plains

Mar 23, 2012; 9:46 AM ET

Friday, 11:30 a.m.

The big weather story for much of the past two weeks has been the incredible warmth. It would take far too much time and space to list all of the records that have been tied, broken, re-broken, obliterated, and flat-out incinerated. I've been reading a few of the National Weather Service summaries on this incredible heat, and it is just flat-out unprecedented.

In 140 years of record-keeping in Chicago, it has reached or exceeded 80 just 10 times. Until this year. Since March 14, it has happened eight times in nine days, with the one day that it didn't make it a lowly 78 for a high.

Detroit has hit 70 or better nine days in a row. The last time such a streak occurred in early spring was a few years ago. Quite a few... as in 1886. And that from March 16 through 24. Of April, not March.

When it hit 76 in Bangor, Maine, on Sunday, it marked the earliest 70-degree reading on record there. That, obviously, was a record, as was the 68 on Monday and the 78 on Tuesday. Then they ramped it up a bit and soared to 83 Wednesday. And topped that at 84 yesterday, setting a new standard for record heat in the month of March. The previous earliest first day of 80-degree warmth there was April 11.

And I could go on and on and on, but I'll let you search around to find some of the great weather stories in this heat, as it would just eat up more time.

It isn't this warm everywhere, In fact, Fairbanks, Alaska, is off to their third coldest start to the month of March in the last 40 years. Anchorage is 7.4 degrees below normal so far this month, and if they manage to eke out 3.7 inches of snow in the next 24 hours, it would establish a new all-time seasonal snowfall record for the city.

Cold air actually covers much of northern and western Canada, as well as northeastern Canada. I look at the weather maps up there every day, and I see a large high pressure area in place across the Northwest Territories this morning. That high will be heard from early next week, and it means some kind of trouble for parts of the northern and eastern Great Lakes and New England down into parts of the mid-Atlantic where it has been so extremely warm in recent days.

Look at the Canadian ensemble forecast for Monday morning:

The upper-level low that is now exiting the Plains and getting ready to cross the Mississippi Valley will be off the East coast by Monday morning, as you can see from that image above. Not far behind it an upper-level trough embedded in the main flow of the stream will streak into the Northeast and into the weakness left behind by the departing upper-level trough. That will allow the colder air to be released into the pattern later and Monday night and could lead to some real problems with frost and freezes. Here's the forecast weather map:

And here's the projected freeze line Tuesday morning:

With the high farther east Tuesday night, frost is possible over the interior mid-Atlantic and most of interior New England, endangering trees and flowers in early bloom. This is not a good situation!

Behind this chill, the warmth will quickly reassert itself over the Rockies and Plains this weekend and early next week. Here is the GFS ensemble forecast for Tuesday:

The problem is that little of that incredible warmth ever gets to the Northeast. The storm coming into the Great Lakes Wednesday will be forced to slide east-southeastward thereafter, denying much of upstate New York and New England access to anything close to that kind of warmth. As a result, the overall seven-day means for next week shift the heat farther west and cool it off noticeably across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states:

Overall, the record warmth is probably not done, though it will be history after today for the Great Lakes to the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. In fact, in many of those places, it may not get that warm again for two or three months!

AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Summer Warmth Ending in the Northeast, But Not in the Plains

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Two More Days of Storms. Getting Ready for Summer FX

Mar 23, 2012; 9:27 AM ET

Comments

1. I am starting to work on the summer forecast. As I tweeted this morning, one of the issues will be the El Nino and just how strong the El Nino will come on this summer. Most of the climate models say that a weak El Nino should be underway by summer. If that's the case, what we typically see are cooler temps in areas of the Midwest that are right now having well above-normal or summerlike temps. We also see numerous severe thunderstorms and nocturnal storms hitting the Midwest and Great Lakes. In fact, while tornadoes are low, you see an uptick in wind damage across the Midwest and Great Lakes. I hope to have maps ready next week.

2. Below are the maps for Today and Saturday's storms. Impacts will mainly be hail and gusty winds, but with any upper-level low, quick-hitting tornadoes can spin up in the storms. 

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Two More Days of Storms. Getting Ready for Summer FX

Not Enough Rain for Drought-Stricken Southeast

This was the drought status as of March 20, 2012, according to NOAA's Drought Monitor. Dark red areas indicate exceptional drought while yellow areas are regions where conditions are abnormally dry.

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 3:17 PM ET

The same slow-moving storm that flooding portions of the South Central states this week will make only a brief visit to some needy areas of the Southeast into the weekend.
While the storm system will not have the same long-duration rainfall it once did, parts of Georgia, Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina will receive some downpours.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread slowly eastward through Saturday and will then exit most of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Saturday night. A few showers may continue over part of the Carolinas on Sunday.
There is the potential for localized rainfall reaching between 1 and 2 inches.
The rain will produce some runoff which will be captured by reservoirs and lakes, but much more is needed.
Unfortunately, most areas may struggle to reach 0.50 of an inch with a few places being missed entirely; It's not the type of system that will bring lasting relief.
Along with the downpours will come the risk of locally severe thunderstorms. The storms have the potential to bring frequent lightning strikes, urban flooding, strong wind gusts and hail.
Rainfall deficits in the region since last fall range from 30 to 60 percent of normal. In many cases, the drought is severe to extreme and extends well into last year. Some locations are running a rainfall deficit of more than 2 feet of rain over the past two years.

Augusta, Ga., home of the Masters golf tournament (April 2-8 this year), has only received about 35 percent of the normal rainfall since Jan. 1, 2012. The percentage is similar reaching back to Aug. 1, 2011.
The situation is serious in portions of the South with some lake levels plunging, small streams and swamps drying up and some larger waterways diminishing to a trickle. Ground water levels were nearing historic low levels due to the ongoing deficits.
Moving forward, the rain is raising concerns for the water supply this summer, if the stingy rainfall pattern continues.
Evaporation rates will increase in the months ahead as temperatures climb, days get longer and sunshine becomes intense.

Not Enough Rain for Drought-Stricken Southeast

Northeast Cold Blast Follows Weekend Rain

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 3:10 PM ET

A storm finally moving out of the Plains will deliver some rain to the Northeast this weekend. However, a quick blast of cold air follows the storm with a freeze and frost.
The same storm responsible for flash flooding in the South Central states this week is picking up speed and will pass through the Eastern states this weekend.
While the bulk of the rain will be left in the Ohio Valley and South, some drenching downpours will reach into the mid-Atlantic Saturday into Sunday. Some lesser pockets of rain can reach into portions of New England as the weekend progresses.

The rain will come at a time when many have had little time to enjoy the record-breaking warmth from the past week.

However, folks who have been planting flowers and vegetables this week will want to take notice of a major freeze potential on the way Monday night.
Temperatures forecast to be more than 50 degrees lower early next week, compared to the 80-degree temperatures experienced of late, will be a big shock in itself.
AccuWeather.com RealFeel® temperatures in some locations could be as much as 70 degrees lower Monday night, compared to the afternoons of this past week.
Some locations will have calm conditions and a frost. Others will have below-freezing temperatures and wind that can cause great damage to tender plants.
MORE INFORMATION: Freeze Potential High for the Northeast
Nurseries and garden centers that have racks of plants outdoors may want to move them indoors.

Northeast Cold Blast Follows Weekend Rain

Live Tracking: Severe Storms, Tornadoes

Tornado in Elkville, Ill. Photo tweeted by Jayson W.

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 2:11 PM ET

Some storms are turning severe from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South with damaging wind gusts and up to tennis ball-sized hail.
The large twisting nature of the weather system responsible for the thunderstorms will aid in tornado formation. Southern Illinois into Kentucky have been under the gun since the midday hours.
RELATED: Pictures, Videos of Tornadoes Spinning Up
A line of nasty thunderstorms are stretching across eastern Illinois near Champaign and western Indiana to north of Evansville, Ind. The primary threats of these thunderstorms are damaging wind gusts and large hail. It is not out of the question for an isolated tornado to develop.
Feisty storms could reach the Chicago area by 5:15-5:45 p.m. CDT and the southern suburbs even sooner.
Southern Alabama and southern Georgia have also been in the path of dangerous, tornado-producing thunderstorms.
Generally, any tornadoes that develop will be weak. However, if they target a populated area, there could still be damage, injuries and loss of life.
So far today, there have been a total of 12 tornado reports.
If a severe storm or tornado-related warning is issued for your area, seek shelter immediately.

 

Radar snapshot from when a tornado was reported in Troy, Ala. Click to see an Interactive U.S. Weather Radar.
Latest Storm Reports:
3:25 p.m. EDT: Law enforcement reported seeing a tornado on the ground in Kolomoki Mounds, Ga.
1:57 p.m. CDT: A tornado briefly touched down 2 miles southeast of Carter, Ill.
1:26 p.m. CDT: A tornado was reported in Opdyke, Ill.
1:14 p.m. CDT: A tornado touched down in the Heritage Creek area in Fern Creek, Ky., east of Louisville.
1:09 p.m. CDT: Police scanner has reported a tornado touchdown east of Tamaroa, Ill.
1:49 p.m. EDT: A possible tornado damaged roofs and downed trees near Dothan, Ala.
12:38 p.m. CDT: Schools in Du Quoin, Ill., have gone into tornado warning mode. Picture of the wall cloud from the Zeigler Elementary school web cam.
12:31 p.m. CDT: @Henry_Margusity tweeted: Tornado on the Ground near Dowell and north of Elkville, Ill. Police are tracking. Golf ball-sized hail was reported near Harrisburg, Ill.
12:14 p.m. CDT: A funnel cloud was spotted 5 miles north of De Soto, Ill.
11:36 a.m. CDT: Public reported a funnel cloud east of Fruitland, Mo.
11:33 a.m. CDT: Fire department reports that a possible tornado touched down briefly 1 mile west of Neelys Landing, Mo.
11:11 a.m. CDT: Tennis ball-sized hail hammered Jackson, Mo.
9:34 a.m. CDT: A tornado damaged a house and a barn 1 mile south of the Troy, Ala., Airport on Oak Grove Road.
9:29 a.m. CDT: A tornado was spotted west of the Troy, Ala., Airport, heading eastward toward the airport.

Live Tracking: Severe Storms, Tornadoes

Weekend California Storm with Rain, Mountain Snow Looms

Rain slowing traffic in California on Feb. 17, 2005. Photo from Flickr user Knot.

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 12:08 PM ET

About a week after the St. Patrick's Day storm unleashed heavy rain and mountain snow in California, another storm looms for this weekend.
A storm with a cold core will approach the California coast, bringing rain and fairly low snow levels for this time of year again.
The storm will first spread rain and mountain snow into northern California on Saturday into Saturday night.
RELATED: Northwest Still Chillin' in March
Rain, low clouds and gusty winds will likely result in flight delays at the San Francisco International Airport, while the rain may slow travel on the ground as well.
Meanwhile, a foot of snow will thump over the Sierras at elevations of 5,000 feet.
"The resorts in the south-central Sierra will get the most snow probably 15 to 25 inches above 7,000 feet," Ken Clark, Accuweather.com expert senior meteorologist, said. Winds gusting past 45 mph will also contribute to some blowing snow that will further cause hazardous travel through mountain passes such as Donner Pass.
As colder air arrives, Clark said snow levels will plummet to 3,500 feet in the central Sierra by late Sunday and Sunday night.

The storm's steady rain will overspread Southern California on Sunday.
"Rainfall amounts in central and southwest California will average 0.75 to 1.50 inches," Clark said. Rainfall of 2-3 inches will fall in topographically favored areas.
It is possible that some thunderstorms also develop over southern California later Sunday into Sunday night. A few storms capable of producing hail cannot be ruled out.
While rain soaks lower elevations, it will be snow that falls over elevations of 6,000 feet at the onset of precipitation. Snow levels will drop as low as 4,000 feet Sunday night. "Resorts in Southern California [will] pick up 1-2 feet with the highest amounts probably in the San Gabriel Range," Clark added.

Unlike the St. Patrick's Day Storm, this one will not deliver much more than rain and snow showers to northern Arizona. The track of this storm will steer it more to the northeast toward Utah rather than eastward into Arizona.

Weekend California Storm with Rain, Mountain Snow Looms

Severe Storm Threat Ohio Valley to Deep South

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 11:25 AM ET

A slow-moving storm system will cut into the warmth across the eastern third of the nation today, but it won't come without a cost.
Summerlike showers and thunderstorms will erupt throughout the day and in a scattered nature from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, ruining an otherwise beautiful day in many areas.
Some of the storms are turning severe, especially from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South, with damaging wind gusts and up to tennis ball-sized hail.
The large twisting nature of the weather system responsible for the thunderstorms will aid in tornado formation. Generally, any tornadoes that develop will be weak. However, if they target a populated area, there could still be damage, injuries and loss of life.
So far today, there have been a total of 8 tornado reports.
If a severe storm or tornado-related warning is issued for your area, seek shelter immediately.
RELATED:
Not Enough Rain for Drought-Stricken Southeast
Dying to Shoot Tornadoes
Are Tornadoes More Powerful Due to Climate Change?
St. Louis, Mo.; Evansville, Ind.; Lexington and Louisville, Ky.; Cincinnati, Ohio; Memphis and Nashville, Tenn.; Birmingham and Huntsville, Ala.; and Rome, Ga., are among the cities at greatest risk for severe storms.
Though conditions are not as favorable, areas farther north including Chicago and Detroit could still see a rattling thunderstorm.

Driving downpours leading to flash flooding will continue to be an issue closer to the Gulf of Mexico, from the Mississippi Delta region into the Deep South. This includes New Orleans, La., as well as Mobile and Montgomery, Ala.
More than an inch of rain could fall in less than an hour in some of the heavier storms, which will quickly lead to water buildup in low-lying, poor drainage and urbanized areas.
While the rain is much-needed in some areas, flash flooding is dangerous and should always be taken seriously. Never drive through areas where water is covered or flowing across the roadway!
The threat for drenching and locally strong storms will shift toward the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. Damaging winds and hail will be a possibility from the stronger storms that erupt from Virginia to Georgia later in the day.

 

Radar snapshot from when a tornado was reported in Troy, Ala. Click to see an Interactive U.S. Weather Radar.

Latest Storm Reports:
1:26 p.m. CDT: A tornado was reported in Opdyke, Ill.
1:14 p.m. CDT: A tornado touched down in the Heritage Creek area in Fern Creek, Ky., east of Louisville.
1:09 p.m. CDT: Police scanner has reported a tornado touchdown east of Tamaroa, Ill.
12:38 p.m. CDT: Schools in Du Quoin, Ill., have gone into tornado warning mode. Picture of the wall cloud from the Zeigler Elementary school web cam.
12:31 p.m. CDT: @Henry_Margusity tweeted: Tornado on the Ground near Dowell and north of Elkville, Ill. Police are tracking. Golf ball-sized hail was reported near Harrisburg, Ill.
12:14 p.m. CDT: A funnel cloud was spotted 5 miles north of De Soto, Ill.
11:36 a.m. CDT: Public reported a funnel cloud east of Fruitland, Mo.
11:33 a.m. CDT: Fire department reports that a possible tornado touched down briefly 1 mile west of Neelys Landing, Mo.
11:11 a.m. CDT: Tennis ball-sized hail hammered Jackson, Mo.
9:34 a.m. CDT: A tornado damaged a house and a barn 1 mile south of the Troy, Ala., Airport on Oak Grove Road.
9:29 a.m. CDT: A tornado was spotted west of the Troy, Ala., Airport, heading eastward toward the airport.

Severe Storm Threat Ohio Valley to Deep South

Major Earthquake Kills Two in Southern Mexico

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 11:20 AM ET

According to the United States Geological Survey, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck 115 miles east of Acapulco, Mexico Tuesday afternoon.
The quake occurred at just past 2:00 p.m. EDT and was in the Oaxaca region of Mexico near the southern coast.
RELATED: Photos Capture Mexico's Earthquake
The epicenter was 15 miles east of Ometepec in the Guerrero state.

Although there were no immediate reports of fatalities, there have now been two confirmed deaths related to the earthquake.
The depth of the quake was 12.4 miles, which is considered to be shallow, meaning the shaking was very strong. Many small and remote towns were hit.
At least 800 homes collapsed in Igualapa, Mexico, a town close to the quake's epicenter, according to CNN.
In Mexico City, cell phones lines were down and swaying at the airport was felt strongly.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center did not issue any tsunami watches, warnings or advisories, releasing a statement saying, "a destructive Pacific-wide tsunami is not expected and there is no tsunami threat to Hawaii."
Since the major earthquake rumbled, several aftershocks have been felt, ranging from magnitude 4.6-5.3.
The weather should cooperate with cleanup and rescue efforts.
"The weather is dry and sunny," said AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity. "It is their dry season right now."
Content contributed by AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

Major Earthquake Kills Two in Southern Mexico

Amazing Stats from the March 2012 'Heat Wave'

Fisherman line a pier after an unseasonably warm afternoon in the Red Hook section of the borough of Brooklyn on Thursday, March 22, 2012 in New York. (AP Photo/Peter Morgan)

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Mar 23, 2012; 7:40 AM ET

While the warmth may finally be beginning to wane in some areas, the number of ways to express how unusual it was is not.
Thousands of records, some thought to be unbreakable, have fallen over the past couple of weeks from the High Plains to the East Coast, and north into Canada.
The unusual warmth has many questioning why, and wondering if this could end up being the new normal. From climate change to ocean temperatures to debris from last year's tsunami, Jillian MacMath has more on the theories offered up by AccuWeather.com's meteorologists.
Though the lasting legacy of the warm spell could end up being one of the above, in the short term, meteorologists and climatologists alike are still struggling to digest the staggering nature of the records that have been broken over the past dozen or so days.

AccuWeather.com Facebook fan Doug T. submitted this photo of apricot trees in bloom on Old Mission Peninsula just east of Traverse City, Mich. Doug adds this blooming is occurring at least six weeks earlier than normal.
The 'Heat Wave' of March 2012, By the Numbers
9 The number of consecutive days that Chicago, Ill., has broken a record high, from March 14 to March 22. Eight of those days saw the mercury climb above 80 degrees, which is normal for mid-June.
93 The temperature swing that occurred over the course of just nine days in International Falls, Minn., from a low of minus 14 degrees on March 9, to a high of 79 degrees on March 18. Also, 10 straight days of new record highs (March 13 to March 22).
26 The number of inches of snow that melted over the course of just seven days in Caribou, Maine, from March 15 to March 22, thanks to the unusual warmth. Also, 18 inches of snow was still on the ground when the first record high fell on March 18 (64 degrees).
32 The gap, in degrees, between the old and new record high on March 21 in Marquette, Mich. The new record high was 81 degrees, obliterating the old record of 49 degrees. The margin of defeat was so great that the low temperature that day was even higher than the old record high temperature.

This is snow depth across the continental U.S. and southern Canada as of March 22. Outside of a few higher elevations, there is no snow on the ground in the country east of the Continental Divide. (NOAA/NOHRSC)
20.7 The temperature departure (in degrees fahrenheit) from normal for the month of March thus far in Winnipeg, Canada. This occurred despite temperatures having dropped below zero for four days early in the month.
1921 The last year it was above 80 degrees in Boston before March 28 of any given calendar year. In reaching 83 degrees on March 22, this came to fruition for the first time since March 21, 1921.
86 The new all-time record high temperature for March in Detroit, Mich., set on March 22. In fact, a new all-time high temperature was set two days in a row, with the mercury first climbing to 84 degrees on March 21.
60 The average low temperature in Chicago, Ill., from March 17 to March 22 of this year. Such low temperatures, about 30 degrees above normal, are more typical for mid-June.

AccuWeather.com Facebook fan Jason S. submitted this photo of beachgoers on Hampton Beach, N.H., on March 22. "I've never seen a scene like this in March in all my 37 years," added Jason.

New All-Time Record High Temperatures for March
Additionally, more than a dozen major cities established new all-time record highs for the month of March. This is especially impressive considering all of these records were set more than a week from the end of the month, which is usually the warmest period.

City	New Record High (Date)	Old Record High (Date)
Detroit, Mich.	86 (3/22)	82 (3/28/1945)
Lansing, Mich.	86 (3/21)	82 (3/24/1910)
Toledo, Ohio	85 (3/21, 3/22)	83 (3/24/1910)
Bangor, Maine	84 (3/22)	79 (3/29/1946)
Milwaukee, Wis.	84 (3/21)	82 (3/29/1986, 3/31/1986)
Cleveland, Ohio	83 (3/20-3/22) - tie	83 (3/24/1910, 3/25/1945)
Madison, Wis.	83 (3/21)	82 (3/29/1986, 3/31/1981)
Buffalo, N.Y.	82 (3/21)	81 (3/26/1945)
London, Ontario	81 (3/22)	77 (3/30/1998)
Marquette, Mich.	81 (3/21)	71 (3/8/2000)
Ottawa, Ontario	81 (3/21)	80 (3/29/1946)
International Falls, Minn.	79 (3/18)	73 (3/31/1963)
Toronto, Ontario	79 (3/22)	78 (3/28/1945)
Montreal, Quebec	78 (3/21) - tie	78 (3/28/1945)
Caribou, Maine	75 (3/21)	73 (3/30/1962)
Winnipeg, Manitoba	75 (3/19)	74 (3/27/1946)
Quebec City, Quebec	65 (3/21)	64 (3/30/1962)

Amazing Stats from the March 2012 'Heat Wave'

AccuWeather.com - Ken Clark | Another Weekend Storm for California

Mar 22, 2012; 12:47 PM ET

An interesting last 24 hours for weather forecasters in the West. GOES-15, the western satellite that provides all sorts of data from satellite pictures to cloud and sounding data failed late yesterday and stopped transmitting. It took until later Thursday for the problem to be isolated but the satellite will not be back into commission any earlier than later Friday morning. This is important because it means the weather have a blind spot in satellite data and computer models will not have as much data in them until the satellite is back up and running. With another storm set to come inland across California this weekend there is just a little less confidence than normal at this point on timing and precipitation amounts.

It's not a question as to whether it rain and snows, it a question now about when the important rain develops and moves away and how much precipitation there is. Today's models did a flip flop on the timing with the European now faster with rain moving in than the GFS. For days it has been the other way around. I am going to stick with the European as at least it has been consistent.

Rain moves into the Central Coast of California later Saturday night and spreads east and south late Saturday night and Sunday. Good rain and snow amounts are likely from about central California into southwest California. The heaviest precipitation may again be in parts of the southern third of the state. This will also be a pretty cold storm or at least become that way. The resorts in the south-central Sierra will get the most snow probably 15 to 25 inches above 7,000 feet with a foot down to 5,000 feet. Snow levels drop by late Sunday and Sunday night down to 3,500 feet. In southern California snow levels start out at around 6,000 feet or a little higher but drop to 5,000 feet late and 4,000 feet at night. Resorts in southern California pick up 1-2 feet with the highest amounts probably in the San Gabriel Range.

Rainfall amounts in central and southwest California will average 0.75 to 1.50 inches but with local amounts of 2-3 inches up favored topographical areas.

One thing this storm will not do is bring anywhere near the kind of precipitation to Arizona as the one did late last week into Monday. This is because instead of the storm plowing east it will lift northeast toward Utah. This could be a good precipitation producer for the Wasatch range but in northern Arizona snow and rain amounts are going to be far, far less than the last storm.

More details coming tomorrow.

AccuWeather.com - Ken Clark | Another Weekend Storm for California

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Heavy Storms Become More Widespread Friday and Saturday

Mar 22, 2012; 8:37 AM ET

Comment

Most of the severe weather will be located across southern Alabama and parts of Mississippi and also into parts of Arkansas and Missouri where storms will develop under the upper-level low. The tornado threat will remain on the tail end of the front across southern Alabama.

Dry air wrapping around the upper low will poke holes in the cloud cover Friday which will lead to more thunderstorms developing under the upper-level low and a more widespread area of heavy thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley into the South. We will probably see the same thing happening Saturday in the East. The impacts both days will be large hail and strong winds with the odd tornado spinning up in the more intense storms.

AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Heavy Storms Become More Widespread Friday and Saturday

Wisconsin Town is Booming-- Er, Literally. Is Rapid Warming to Blame?

"Checking sewers in #Clintonville after boom at 8pm," reporter Bret Lemoine tweeted on Tuesday.

By Grace Muller, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Mar 22, 2012; 1:30 PM ET

For more than three days, people in Clintonville, Wis., have woken up from sleep to a noise that some described as sounding like an explosion or distant fireworks.
What is it? No one knows. Geologists have ruled out earthquakes or explosions in old mines. City officials checked gas and sewer lines. The local military says they're not running any drills.
"In summary, it's crazy," Brian Niznansky, a meteorologist for Wisconsin's NBC26 station, said. "The craziest part is that no one has an idea, from the local officials to scientists, whether it's natural, manmade, a hoax, no one has any sort of idea what is going on. You can't rule out weather because we're in [a] historic heat wave."
Warm weather could potentially be to blame.
Lisa Kuss, spokesperson for the city, said the same, at a town meeting called on Tuesday to talk to residents about the disturbing sounds.
"It is a strong possibility that some natural phenomenon is occurring under the ground. We have discussed that both our strange winter weather and current very warm spring like weather, which is early, is extreme at best and somehow could be impacting our soils below the surface," Kuss said.
One theory about the noise is that the sound comes from the ground settling after ice in the ground quickly melted.
"If we've had a cold winter, and you get a good frost layer, 4 or 5 feet, then you get a huge warm up, you might get some cracking of the ground but our winter was very mild," Niznansky said.
"Cryogenic" noises, sounds related to freezing of the ground, are unlikely. Wisconsin had a warm winter. There were not many days with temperatures below freezing so that a thick frost layer could form. Temperatures were around 7 degrees above normal in January, almost 8 degrees above normal in February and 17 degrees above normal so far in March. The winter season's average temperature was 6F above normal.
"Over the last four days, Wisconsin had a dramatic increase in temperatures, from 20 degrees above normal to 35 degrees above normal," Margusity said. "Since Friday, the temperature has really increased rapidly. At the beginning of March, the temperatures were in the 30s. Wednesday was 81 degrees."
Margusity compared the ground warping to a bridge expanding and contracting in the cold.
"Between the wind, sunshine and humidity, you're warming the ground very rapidly, like a pan on the stove that warps because it gets hot so fast," AccuWeather meteorologist Henry Margusity said.

Wisconsin Town is Booming-- Er, Literally. Is Rapid Warming to Blame?