Saturday, March 3, 2012

Tornado Outbreak: Weather Forecast Moving Forward

Mar 3, 2012; 3:09 PM ET
A devastating tornado outbreak on Friday has left communities across the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast looking for answers. The weather for recovery and clean-up efforts will be starkly different heading into next week.
A cold breeze and some sunshine encompassed southern Indiana and Ohio to Tennessee early this morning. Henryville and Marysville, Ind., two of the hardest-hit communities in the outbreak, were part of the calmer weather this morning.
Chilly, breezy and mainly dry weather is forecast for the balance of the weekend. 


Sub-freezing lows will affect areas from Cincinnati, Ohio, to Paducah, Ky., to Nashville, Tenn., tonight as temperatures bottom out the 20s and lower 30s.
Temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s will be found farther south from Mississippi to Alabama and northern Georgia.
Showers will dampen central and southern Alabama into Georgia tonight while dry weather will be farther north into the Ohio Valley.
On Sunday, rain and snow showers will be across Ohio and Indiana to Kentucky as a much weaker and colder storm moves in from the northern Plains.
A steadier snow will develop across southern Indiana and most of Kentucky Sunday night, which could produce an inch or two snow over the tornado ravaged region.


By Monday, a high pressure system will provide tranquil weather through at least the middle part of next week from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast. The change to cold this weekend will be followed by a gradual warm-up next week supported by plenty of sunshine.

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Above-Normal Tornado Amounts Expected in 2012

Mar 3, 2012; 3:45 PM ET
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell has more on this image from Fred Smith.
Following a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011, an active severe weather season with above-normal tornadoes is expected in 2012.
There were 1,709 tornadoes in 2011, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004. In comparison, the average number of tornadoes over the past decade is around 1,300.
Last year ranks as the fourth most deadly tornado year ever recorded in the United States.
In 2011, there was a very strong La Niña, a phenomenon where the sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator are below normal. As a result, there was a very strong jet stream, which is a key ingredient for severe weather.

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Often in a La Niña year, the "Tornado Alley" shifts to the east, spanning the Gulf states, including Mississippi and Alabama, and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. During the extremely active severe weather season of 2011, many tornadoes touched down east of the typical "Tornado Alley," which stretches from Texas to Kansas. Twisters frequently hit Texas to Kansas during the spring as warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico clashes with drier air coming out of the Rockies.
Above-normal tornadoes are anticipated again this year.
Warmer-than-normal Gulf of Mexico water is a key component to the active severe weather season anticipated in 2012. There will be a sufficient supply of warm and humid air to fuel supercell thunderstorms, the type of storms that spawn strong tornadoes, because of the warm Gulf water.

 

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are running above normal for this time of year.
The weak to moderate La Niña during this winter is much weaker compared to last winter, and it is weakening even more now. There is evidence that warming is occurring in the equatorial Pacific, so the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to turn neutral by April. In other words, the temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will be near normal by spring.
"Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said regarding the difference in pattern.
The mid-Mississippi and upper Ohio valleys are among the zones that may get hit more frequently by severe weather this year. Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan are included in this zone.

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It is highly unlikely that the exact same areas of the Deep South that were struck by tragic tornado outbreaks in 2011 will be hit as hard again this year. However, there could be some damaging thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Gulf states this season.

 

Aerial view of destruction from an EF-4 tornado that struck Tuscaloosa, Ala., on April 27, 2011.
The Deep South, including the Gulf States and eastern Texas, is expected to get hit by severe weather early in the season, mainly in March. By early April, the severe weather threat will retreat to the north, reaching the lower Ohio and mid-Mississippi valleys, according to Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team.
"If I were in the South or Ohio Valley, I'd be extra prepared this year," Mike Smith, senior vice president of AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions cautioned.
Whether tornadoes hit highly populated areas like they did last year is harder to pinpoint.
"There is no way to know if it (2012) will be as active as last year. Last year we had two unfortunate occurrences simultaneously: a larger-than-normal number of tornadoes plus tornadoes hitting densely populated areas. There is no way to know if the cities are going to be hit in the same number as last year. If so, it could be another deadly year," Smith said.

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The Science Behind the Tornado Outbreak

Mar 3, 2012; 3:57 PM ET
Friday, March 2, 2012 may be known as one of the worst tornado outbreak for early March on record. 80 sightings of tornadoes were reported between 10 a.m. and 9 p.m. Friday. Friday's outbreak could include more tornadoes in one day than typically occur over the entire month of March in the United States. 

 

The graphic depicts the weather factors in place for Friday's tornado outbreak.
A strong low pressure system sent a blast of cold air into warm and humid air on Friday. Powerful winds aloft enhanced the threat for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. A warmer than normal central Gulf of Mexico may have helped the extent of warm and humid air that surged north ahead of the cold, dry air.
The cause and effects are analyzed below.

7:15 A.M. FRIDAY MORNING
A low pressure system was centered over southern Missouri and was forecast to move northeastward and intensify. A cold front stretched southwest from the low into northern Texas. Warm and humid air was surging north ahead of the low from the central Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley. Nashville, Tenn. reported a temperature of 65, already eleven degrees above their normal high for March 2.
Nashville was on the northern edge of widespread warm and humid air surging north ahead of the low. Warm and humid air is a key component to severe thunderstorm and tornado formation. A warmer than normal central Gulf of Mexico may have helped fuel the extent of the warmth and humidity.
The upper atmosphere featured huge amounts of wind shear, another key component to severe thunderstorm and tornado formation. Wind shear is a change in wind direction or speed from the winds at the lower levels of the atmosphere to the upper levels. The wind shear was detected by the fact of southerly winds in the lower levels of the atmosphere and westerly winds in the upper atmosphere ahead of the low pressure system.
A strong jet stream, with winds in excess of 100 miles per hour in the upper atmosphere, was in place as well.
Nearly every factor meteorologists look for when forecasting severe thunderstorms and tornadoes was in place.

1:45 P.M. FRIDAY AFTERNOON
 

A snapshot of the radar mosaic at 1:45 p.m. Friday. The bright yellow's and red's in western Indiana and southern Illinois indicated severe thunderstorms along the cold front advancing eastward.
The low pressure system was stronger and centered over east-central Illinois with a cold front extending south from the low across southeast Missouri to central Arkansas and east Texas.
Warm and humid air continued to surge north, with widespread 70s noted from the Gulf Coast to Tennessee and Kentucky. Cold air was pressing eastward into this warmth with temperatures only in the 40s in eastern Missouri.
The clash between the cold and warm air is a classic setup for thunderstorms and provide lift in the atmosphere.
The first tornado for Indiana was reported only minutes earlier in Posey county, with an estimate of the tornado being 300 yards wide.
Numerous tornadoes have already been reported since the morning from Alabama to Tennessee. 


5:45 P.M. FRIDAY EVENING
 

A snapshot of the radar mosaic at 5:45 p.m. Friday. Numerous severe thunderstorms are depicted by the bright yellow's and red's along the cold front stretched from southern Ohio to Louisiana, some of which contained dangerous tornadoes. Individual thunderstorms formed in the warm and humid air in eastern Tennessee south into Mississippi and Alabama.
The low pressure system continued to strengthen and was centered over southwest Michigan. The cold front extended south of the low into central Kentucky to western Tennessee and northern Louisiana.
The instability of the atmosphere was near or just past the peak over the region. Widespread cold air pressing east was colliding with warm air that was fueled by daytime heating. Sufficient wind shear was in the atmosphere to allow the thunderstorms to rotate and spawn dangerous tornadoes.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. received approximately 17 reports of either tornadoes on the ground or damage already done by tornadoes over the past hour.
The radar mosaic showed severe thunderstorms along the cold front and individual thunderstorms ahead of the main line.
Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes were ravaging states from Ohio to Tennessee to Mississippi and Alabama.

9:30 P.M. FRIDAY NIGHT
The cold front was stretched from eastern Ohio south to eastern Tennessee and the southwest into central Louisiana. In wake of the cold front windy and chilly was settling into the ravaged Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The cold air filtering into the region stabilized the atmosphere, eliminating the threat for further thunderstorm development.
However, along and ahead of the cold front, heavy rain was pounding the central Appalachians while dangerous thunderstorms rumbled across northern Georgia to Louisiana.
Over 80 sightings of tornadoes were reported since 10 a.m., with unfathomable destruction reported in their wake.
The front was forecast to continue pushing eastward through Saturday, prompting more risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.

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Friday Tornadoes Span 10 States, Kill Dozens

Mar 3, 2012; 10:27 AM ET
An employee of Henryville High School examines the remains of the building following severe storms Friday, March 2, 2012, in Henryville, Ind. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
A massive severe weather outbreak stretching from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf coast spawned dozens of tornadoes across 10 states on Friday, marking one of the largest outbreaks on record this early in a season.
For some areas, it was the second tornado outbreak this week.
Though the task of counting the actual number of tornadoes will stretch into next week, there were at least 80 reports of twisters on Friday stretching from the morning to the late evening hours.
The most concentrated area of tornadoes stretched across the Ohio Valley, from southern Indiana and Ohio south into Kentucky. Here, at least 34 people lost their lives, including 14 in Indiana, 16 in Kentucky, three in Ohio and one in Alabama.
There have been unconfirmed reports of five possible fatalities in the Carolina's as of Saturday afternoon.
Rescue workers, including the National Guard, continued to dig through rubble and debris early on Saturday in an effort to locate more survivors.
To streamline the aid process, Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear declared a State of Emergency late on Friday.
In Indiana, the towns of Henryville and Marysville sustained direct hits from tornadoes during the early afternoon hours, leading to extensive damage.
Residents of Marysville, Ind., survey the tornado damage to their homes Friday, March 2, 2012 in Marysville, Ind. (AP Photo/Brian Bohannon)
"Marysville is almost completely gone," Clark County Sheriff's Maj. Chuck Adams told WHAS-TV in the wake of a tornado.
In Henryville, the town's high school was nearly demolished while school buses were thrown into nearby businesses. Fortunately, everyone at the school was safe and accounted for.
A 2-year-old girl was found safe and alone in the middle of a farm field outside Henryville. Authorities were searching for her family.
Several homes were destroyed by another tornado in nearby Holton, Ind., where a car was flipped over several times by the fierce winds.
A map of severe weather storm reports from Friday received by the Storm Prediction Center as of 5:30 a.m. EST Saturday.
A possible tornado destroyed a trailer and damaged a silo and barns in New Liberty, Ky.
Farther south in Tennessee, at least 29 people were injured as tornadoes touched down across 10 counties. In Alabama, more than a hundred homes suffered heavy damage.
There were more than 700 reports of severe weather in all on Friday and Friday night. Two hundred twenty of them were from strong thunderstorm wind gusts or wind damage, while 414 were from large hail.
The threat for severe weather will shift deeper into the Southeast today, stretching from the Florida Panhandle to the eastern Carolinas. While a few storms could turn gusty, the overall threat for tornadoes will be much lower.

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Irina a Flood Threat to Southeast Africa

Mar 3, 2012; 10:47 AM ET
Tropical Cyclone Irina was over the southern Mozambique Channel at the time of the satellite image, taken Friday, March 2, 2012 (NRLMRY image)
Tropical Cyclone Irina could make landfall on the southeastern coast of Africa by Sunday.
Flooding rain will be the greatest threat over an areas spanning eastern South Africa, southernmost Mozambique as well as the small nation of Swaziland. Damaging winds will be possible as well.
Friday, the center of Tropical Cyclone Irina was within about 450 miles east-northeast of Maputo, Mozambique, and it was packing highest sustained winds of 55 to 60 mph, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Movement was towards the southwest at about 20 mph, but was forecast to become more towards the west.
The JTWC forecast a Sunday landfall near Maputo followed by an inland path into Swaziland and eastern South Africa.
Areas along and south of the direct storm track will be a greatest risk of excessive rain and flood starting Sunday. Even as it dissipates inland, Irina could continue to threaten flooding rain through the first part of next week.

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Friday, March 2, 2012

East Downpours, Thunderstorms from Midwest Tornado Remnants

Mar 2, 2012; 11:17 AM ET
The storm system triggering violent thunderstorms and tornadoes will bring downpours and locally heavy thunderstorms to the East into Saturday morning.
While a wedge of cool, stable air will keep the worst of storms away from the mid-Atlantic and New England, it won't be enough to keep rain and thunderstorms away from all locations.
**No organized widespread severe thunderstorms are forecast to make the trip east to the Appalachians and to the Atlantic Seaboard.**
However, downpours and thunderstorms are in store for some areas from central New York to central Pennsylvania, eastern West Virginia, Virginia and the 
Delmarva tonight.


There is a risk of violent storms reaching into portions of western New York, western Pennsylvania and western West Virginia during the first part of tonight

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During Saturday morning, a zone of downpours, including thunderstorms in some locations, will stretch from New England to southeastern Virginia.

 

The rain and storms will sweep off the coast during the midday and afternoon.
According to Expert Senior Meteorologist John Gresiak, "In New England and eastern upstate New York, the combination of brief heavy rain and snowmelt can cause small streams to rise quickly."
Even in areas where snow is lacking, there is the risk of isolated incidents of flash and urban flooding in areas from Portland, Maine, and Boston, Mass., to New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C., and Richmond, Va.
High Wind Threat
As the culprit storm system rolls into the Great Lakes, a powerful circulation around the feature will generate strong winds from western New York southward through the Appalachians in Virginia and West Virginia.


In the early stage, thunderstorms may accompany the winds. However, strong winds will continue well in the wake a cold frontal passage into Saturday.
Gusts can reach 50 to 70 mph (80 to 110 kph) in southern Ontario, western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania and 40 to 50 mph in southwestern Pennsylvania to the Virginias.
During Saturday midday and afternoon, frequent gusts to 40 mph are likely throughout the region all the way to the Atlantic coast.

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Today's Tornado Setup Similar to 1974 Super Outbreak

Mar 2, 2012; 10:52 AM ET
Map by T. Theodore Fujita, The University of Chicago.
The setup and aftermath on Friday for the Ohio and Tennessee valleys could be similar to the weather pattern during and following the 1974 Super Outbreak.
Spanning April 3-4, 1974, a swarm of tornadoes tore through areas from Illinois and southern Michigan to northern Alabama and Georgia.
The outbreak produced 148 confirmed tornadoes, six of which were F-5 intensity. The most powerful of these storms slammed into Xenia, Ohio.
Every weather pattern no matter how similar always has its differences, and this outbreak will have its own characteristics.
However, according to Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity, "In the case of the end of this week and back in early April of 1974, it appears strong upper-level winds and cool air approaching from the west could hit a zone of advancing warm, moist air in just the right manner to produce monsters of thunderstorms."
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This is not to say communities that were hit by the tornadoes in 1974 will be hit again, as the atmosphere is much more random than this.


 
A tornado killed 25 people in Guin, Ala., on April 3, 1974, during the deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history. A community shelter built a few years ago to provide a safe haven to residents of a housing project that lacks basements in Guin, Ala., is shown. (AP Photo/Jay Reeves)
"There will be a strengthening storm system tracking to the northeast from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes," Margusity said.
Former West Lafayette, Ind., resident Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews recalls that outbreak.
"Having one of the super cell thunderstorms pass right over my town was the scariest moment of my life," Andrews said.
Fortunately, Andrews' town was spared any major damage.
This outbreak is not likely to extend as far north into the Great Lakes region as that of 1974.

 

We pray the storms are far less intense and hope they avoid places where people live.
We do urge that people take this threat seriously, as there is a risk of violent storms sweeping through population centers and rural communities.
Also similar to 1974, a sweep of cold air in the wake of the tornado outbreak will yield areas of snow.
Snow blanketed Xenia only hours after the devastating tornado swept through in early April of 1974.
Most of any snow that falls this weekend immediately in the wake of severe weather will tend to be focused near the Great Lakes into the central Appalachians.


 
A disturbance dropping southeastward from the northern Plains could bring spotty snow into portions of the Appalachians and the Tennessee and Ohio valleys late in the weekend.
The pattern could add to the misery of cleanup operations from the midweek event and, woefully, from Friday into Saturday.
It is possible some snow showers dip as far south and west as portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by early Monday.
According to Severe Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "At least the weather pattern in the wake of the storms Friday into Saturday will be much less volatile in these areas and others for many days."
Drier, more stable air will settle over the region through much of next week.

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Large Tornado Risk Area into This Evening

Mar 2, 2012; 10:50 AM ET
If a storm is approaching your location, seek shelter in the basement, in a small interior room, or cover yourself with a mattress. (Image by photos.com)
Areas from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys to the southern Appalachians are in harm's way into this evening as the potential for tornadoes is greatly elevated.
The weather setup has the potential not only to produce damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes, but also the risk of multiple strong, long-tracking tornadoes.
The broad risk of tornadoes will occur along and ahead of a cold front sweeping from west to east into this evening. The threat of violent storms and tornadoes will not end until that front sweeps to the east.
**Thunderstorms in portions of eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama have already produced tornadoes during the midday.**
**Tornadoes were touching down in portions of southeastern Missouri and southern Indiana late in the morning.**
It is possible that some areas will be hit by more than one violent thunderstorm and are at risk for multiple hours into this evening.
The storms will be moving fast, some at a speed of nearly 50 mph and people may not have much time to react.
RELATED:
Even though your day may have started cool and clammy, weather conditions can change rapidly in this situation favoring severe weather.

 

Areas at greatest risk during the afternoon hours will stretch from southeastern Illinois and central Indiana southward to northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Cities within this risk area include Indianapolis, Ind.; Dayton, Ohio; Louisville, Ky.; Cape Girardeau, Mo.; Clarksville, Tenn.; Tupelo, Miss.; and Huntsville, Ala.
During the evening, the greatest risk area for tornadoes will stretch from central Ohio and western West Virginia southward to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and northwestern Georgia. Cities within this area include Columbus, Ohio; Huntington, W.Va.; Nashville, Tenn.; Rome, Ga.; Birmingham, Ala; and Jackson, Miss.


As we stated earlier, tornadoes are not the only threat. Severe thunderstorms produce frequent lightning strikes. The potential for winds strong enough to damage roofs and knock over trees is very high. Large hail accompanying the storms can cause injury, break windows and damage cars.
For these reasons we urge you to move indoors and away from windows as storms approach.


We strongly recommend constant monitoring of severe weather bulletins and staying in touch with family member's whereabouts.
If a storm is approaching your location, seek shelter in the basement, in a small interior room, or cover yourself with a mattress.

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Snowstorm Begins to Slam Midwest, Great Lakes

Mar 2, 2012; 10:26 AM ET
Windswept snow with poor visibility. Courtesy of Photos.com
As severe weather rips through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, a snowstorm is taking shape over the Midwest and will blast into the central Great Lakes area tonight.
The disturbance that brought feet of snow to the Sierra Nevada and other parts of the West will eject into the Midwest today and gather strength as it races northeastward.
Cold air rushing into the nation's heartland this afternoon will combine with the storm to produce a swath of windswept snow through tonight.
As the storm intensifies, winds will become gusty across the Midwest. These strong winds, combined with heavy snowfall, could create blizzard conditions tonight.
The hardest hit region from this powerful storm is expected to be the northwestern part of Michigan, including Traverse City and central Ontario, including Sudbury. Over a foot (30 centimeters) of wind-whipped snow is possible.



Although the heaviest snow will be confined to a narrow zone, residents from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to Madison, Wis., to Grand Rapids, Mich., are expected to get at least 3-6 inches of snow.
Travel is expected to be treacherous along I-80, I-88, I-90, and I-94 in northern Illinois, and along I-39, I-43, I-90, and I-94, in Wisconsin. Locations in Michigan north and west of I-69 have the best chance of experiencing disruptive wintry weather.
This will be a quick-hitting, but powerful storm. By Saturday, snow will taper off across Michigan as the storm pulls northeastward into Quebec.
On the southern side of this storm, a large outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes, is under way in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

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Thursday, March 1, 2012

Large, Dangerous Tornado Outbreak Forecast Friday

Mar 1, 2012; 7:25 AM ET
Photo of tornado from Photos.com.

Tornadoes are forecast to swarm Friday through a very large and populated area of the nation, stretching from Illinois, Indiana and Ohio to Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and other states.

After a brief reprieve from severe weather, a storm system emerging from the Rockies will act as the trigger for another round of dangerous storms in portions of recently hard-hit states and others beginning early Friday.

The tranquil weather over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys will not last long.

Late tonight, storms are expected to erupt across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Hail will be the greatest threat from this initial round of thunderstorms.

In light of less than perfect atmospheric conditions in the tornado and severe weather outbreak Tuesday night and Wednesday, it seems this potential event may have many key ingredients coming together.

Warm, moist air will combine with strong winds aloft in such a way to generate powerful thunderstorms that may spawn tornadoes.

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Important Tornado Safety Tips

The first storms are forecast to ignite near the Mississippi River Friday morning into Friday afternoon and push eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee valley states late in the day and during Friday evening.

Cities at risk for violent storms include Nashville, Tenn., Louisville, Ky., Cincinnati, Ohio, and Indianapolis, Ind.

In addition to the usual heavy rainfall and frequent lightning that accompanies thunderstorms, these storms could produce damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

AccuWeather.com meteorologists are concerned that Friday's severe weather outbreak has the potential to be more substantial than the one that blasted through similar areas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

The midweek outbreak was responsible for 12 deaths and 30 tornado reports.

The storms at the end of this week may be stronger and may cover a larger and more heavily populated area from the Midwest to the South, like some outbreaks from the past.

By Friday night, thunderstorms are expected to continue to whip eastward, rumbling toward the Appalachians.

If the storms remain intact, they could bring severe weather from Georgia through the Carolinas Saturday.

Stay tuned to AccuWeather.com through the end of the week as we continuously monitor and update this potentially significant severe weather outbreak.


Large, Dangerous Tornado Outbreak Forecast Friday
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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Severe Weather Risk Friday Ohio, Tennessee Valleys

Feb 29, 2012; 4:08 PM ET
Mother Nature has the potential to add insult to injury over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Friday with another potential round of severe weather.
A storm swinging through the West into Thursday will travel across the middle of the nation Thursday night.
The storm overall will not be as intense as the Leap Day blizzard and severe weather outbreak, but it will move into a favorable zone for powerful thunderstorm development during Friday, upon nearing the Mississippi River.
The greatest risks from these storms appear to be damaging wind gusts and hail. However, the early stages of the storms on Friday may have the potential to produce a few tornadoes.
More details of the severe weather risk will be released Thursday, after the danger from the current severe weather outbreak has passed.
Violent thunderstorms and tornadoes from late Tuesday into Wednesday claimed multiple lives and caused damage in several states.

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Leap Day Blizzard Unwinds

Feb 29, 2012; 4:37 PM ET
The storm responsible for up to a foot of snow in South Dakota and northern Michigan and over a foot and a half of snow in portions of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin is slowly unwinding tonight.
Travel will remain difficult from the central and eastern Dakotas to the upper Great Lakes area.
While the strongest winds will ease tonight, blowing and drifting of snow on the ground will continue in the Dakotas to portions of northern and central Minnesota.
In areas farther to the east, where the snow was more wet during the day, falling temperatures will cause areas of water and slush to freeze tonight.
High winds and blowing snow forced officials to close a portion of I-90 in South Dakota Wednesday.
There have been sporadic power outages in the Upper Midwest. Wind gusts over 40 mph were common from eastern South Dakota to Minnesota in the snow. Gusts topped 55 mph in Duluth, Minn., as the snow came down.
Conditions will improve over the region Thursday as temperatures moderate with much less wind.

 

While another storm will affect part of the region on Friday, it will not be as intense in terms of wind and aerial coverage of snow.
Some snowfall totals from the storm:
  • Butternut, Wis. : 19.0 inches
  • Sawyer, Minn.: 17.0 inches
  • Bessemer, Mich.: 13.5 inches
  • Wessington Springs, S.D.: 11.5 inches
  • St. Cloud, Minn.: 9.5 inches
  • Durbin, N.D.: 8.4 inches
  • Aberdeen, S.D.: 6.4 inches
  • Fargo, N.D.: 3.4 inches
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Snowstorm Clobbers New England, Hudson Valley

Feb 29, 2012; 4:03 PM ET
Snow of varying intensity will make for a wintry scene as March gets under way in portions of New England. (Photos.com image)
Snow of varying intensity will continue tonight over portions of New England and the Hudson Valley with areas of rain and fog farther south and west.
As road surface temperatures drop a bit tonight and the sun effect is lost from the day, snow will stick to more paved areas tonight. Road conditions can change dramatically in a matter of minutes, especially driving along a highway speeds.
Travel will be a mess along portions of the New York Thruway, I-84, I-88, I-90 and I-91 in the region, especially when the snow falls a heavy, blinding rate.
According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Dave Dombek, "More moisture is likely to wrap around into the region tonight from the south, keeping the snowstorm going."
Cold air will hold its ground over central New England and much of the central and northern Hudson Valley of New York.
"A change to a wintry mix or rain will only advance so far as a result," Dombek said.


Rain was falling along the southern coast of New England and from the New York metro area on south. However, this was also contributing to travel problems.
Incidents of flash and urban flooding can occur along and south of the Mason-Dixon Line this evening with some areas being hit by heavy, gusty thunderstorms. In addition to downpours, fog will be another issue tonight.
Snow will wind down from west to east across the region during Thursday, but there can still be an accumulation during the morning drive and midday hours with some enhancement possible from the Atlantic Ocean in parts of eastern New England.
Enough cold air could ooze back in to change rain over to snow along the southern coast of New England for a time Thursday.
In most areas across western New York state, much of Pennsylvania, New Jersey and metro New York, the storm will just finish as rain showers during early Thursday. A brief period of snow is possible in the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey at the tail end.

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Feet of Snow for Sierra Nevada, Southern Cascades

Feb 29, 2012; 2:21 PM ET
Feet of snow will plaster the high country of northern California and Oregon. (Photos.com image)
A moisture-rich and cold storm will plow across the West into Thursday. The storm will bring up to several feet of snow in the northern Sierra Nevada and the southern Oregon Cascades.
While somewhat lesser amounts will fall at pass levels, on the order of a foot or two, the snow will fall at a fast and furious pace and has the potential to close passes, affecting portions of I-80 in California and Nevada and I-5 in California and Oregon.
According to Western Weather Expert Ken Clark, "Snow levels will dip to around 500 feet in the hills around Seattle and Portland, trending to near 3,000 in the central Sierra Nevada."
This means snow will mix in around these elevations with accumulations trending upward above this level throughout the Olympics, Cascades and northern and central Sierra Nevada.


The snow will be powdery in nature in the mountains, subject to a great amount of blowing and drifting by strong winds surpassing hurricane force. Whiteout conditions are likely at times.
What poses difficulties for travelers will be a boost for the ski industry and water interests. Unlike last winter, storms have been scarce.
A cold, drenching rain will fall along the coast of northern California to Washington.


Along portions of the Oregon and northern California coasts, south of Portland and north of Santa Rosa, enough rain can fall in a short period of time to lead to flash and urban flooding as well as landslides and damage to some roads.
While much less rain will fall over the Sacramento Valley, any non-destructive rainfall will be welcomed.
No significant precipitation is forecast for Southern California and the deserts with this storm, unlike the system to start this week. 


However, heavy snow will progress eastward through the Wasatch and various ranges over the central and northern Rockies into Thursday.

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Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Leap Day Blizzard for Fargo, Pierre, Others

Feb 28, 2012; 9:02 AM ET
A Leap Day blizzard will hit portions of the Dakotas and Minnesota hard with heavy snow, severe drifting snow and very low visibility to close out February 2012.
Feb. 29 happens only once every four years, so blizzards on this date are much more rare than any other day in the winter. Wednesday is Leap Day 2012.
According to Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, "Conditions experienced in height of the storm Tuesday night into Wednesday will range from disruptive to immobilizing along portions of I-29, I-90 and I-94."
Cities in the path of the storm include Fargo, Jamestown and Bismarck in North Dakota, Pierre, Huron and Aberdeen in South Dakota and Duluth, St. Cloud and Bemidji in Minnesota. The worst of the storm for much of this area will be late tonight into Wednesday.


For a larger snowfall forecast map is available on AccuWeather.com's Winter Weather Site.
As the storm rolls northeastward across the Plains, intermittent snow will break out well ahead of the main storm over the Dakotas and portions of Minnesota today. Little or no accumulation will result initially in most areas due to the spotty, light nature of the snow and the snow hitting during the day .
However, things will change as the storm causes precipitation to dramatically ramp up and road surfaces cool tonight. Extra moisture will feed up from the south tonight. There can even be thunder and lightning with the snow in portions of the heavy snow area.
The snow will become heavier and winds will increase over the eastern part of the Dakotas and central Minnesota late today and tonight. The heavy rate of snow, combined with increasing blowing and drifting of snow on the ground will cause travel conditions to deteriorate rapidly.

 

Heavy snow and some wind will also reach into northern Wisconsin and central and northern Michigan tonight into Wednesday.
The storm will also have a warm side to it as many often do with a zone of rain and thunderstorms. Severe weather is possible from portions of the central and southern Plains to the Ohio Valley.

 
Photo from Groundhog Day Blizzard in Chicago on Feb. 2, 2011 by AccuWeather.com Facebook fan Laercio L.
In between, a brief period of wintry mix ranging from sleet, freezing rain and wet snow will occur right along the storm center track at the onset, followed by a change to rain from northern Iowa and southern Minnesota to central Wisconsin, the potential for a glaze of ice or a coating of slush today. In the Detroit area, this potential exists later tonight.
A difference in temperature of a few degrees around the start of the precipitation near the ground and several thousand feet up will determine whether or not some of these areas have a brief, or extended, period of wintry mix.
As the blizzard diminishes over the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest later Wednesday, the next stop for the storm will be the Northeast.

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Feet of Snow for Sierra Nevada, Southern Cascades

Feb 28, 2012; 3:30 PM ET
Feet of snow will plaster the high country of northern California and Oregon. (Photos.com image)
A moisture-rich and cold storm will plow ashore in the West tonight into Thursday, producing up to several feet of snow in the northern Sierra Nevada and the southern Oregon Cascades.
While somewhat lesser amounts will fall at pass levels, on the order of a foot or two, the snow will fall at a fast and furious pace and has the potential to close passes, affecting portions of I-80 in California and Nevada and I-5 in California and Oregon.
According to Western Weather Expert Ken Clark, "Snow levels will dip to around 500 to 1,000 feet in the hills around Seattle and Portland, trending to near 3,000 in the central Sierra Nevada."
This means snow will mix in around these elevations with accumulations trending upward above this level in the mountains.
 

The snow will be powdery in nature in the mountains, subject to a great amount of blowing and drifting by strong winds surpassing hurricane force. Whiteout conditions are likely at times.
The worst conditions over Donner Pass will be Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening.
What poses difficulties for travelers will be a boost for the ski industry and water interests. Unlike last winter, storms have been scarce.
A cold, drenching rain will fall along the coast of northern California to Washington.
Along portions of the Oregon and northern California coasts, south of Portland and north of Santa Rosa, enough rain can fall in a short period of time to lead to flash and urban flooding as well as landslides and damage to some roads.
While much less rain will fall over the Sacramento Valley, any non-destructive rainfall will be welcomed.
No significant precipitation is forecast for Southern California and the deserts with this storm, unlike the system to start this week. However, heavy snow will progress eastward through the Wasatch and various ranges over the central and northern Rockies into Thursday.
The storm was just getting under way in the Northwest today.

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Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone a Threat to Africa

Feb 28, 2012; 3:29 PM ET
 

A tropical cyclone taking shape between Mozambique and Madagascar will pose a growing threat of damaging wind and flooding rain this week.
Coastal areas, both of Mozambique and Madagascar, could feel the direct impact of a tropical cyclone landfall between Wednesday and Sunday.
The weather system was already named "Irina" as of Sunday by the Tropical Cyclone Center of Reunion, but the Joint Typhoon Warning Center were not yet referring to it as such.
As of Tuesday, the weather system was merely a tropical low, straddling the coast of northwestern Madagascar, but an environment favorable for cyclone formation lay off shore.
Potential tropical cyclone paths would be towards the south and southwest over the Mozambique Channel.
The speed and extent of storm intensification will hinge upon the system's path, an open-water track favoring substantial strengthening.
Some forecast tools accessed by AccuWeather.com meteorologists indicate that a strong and potentially dangerous storm will take shape at sea late in the week.
This tropical cyclone season in the southwestern Indian Ocean has been busy with costly storm aftermaths in both Madagascar and Mozambique.
Both Funso and Giovanna were intense tropical cyclones having serious wind and rain impacts.

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Stormy Week for Northwest; More Snow Flakes in Seattle

Feb 28, 2012; 3:24 PM ET

A potent storm system will plow into the Northwest today, beginning a stretch of wintry weather.
Ample Pacific moisture associated with a strong disturbance will push onshore today along the Oregon and Washington coast, bringing drenching rain to the immediate coastal plain.
Strong winds will also buffet the coast with gusts in excess of 50-mph tonight into tomorrow.
Farther inland, the moisture will clash with cold air, producing snow in the mountains. Snow levels are expected to be quite low across the region. In Washington, residents of Seattle could see some snowflakes although accumulation is not expected.
According to Western Weather Expert Ken Clark, "Snow levels will dip to around 500 feet in Washington and 500 to 1,000 feet in Oregon."
Very heavy snow will spread over the mountains of northern California and southern Oregon beginning tonight.
Over a foot of snow could blanket the highest elevations of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. Lesser amounts are expected in lower elevations.
Persistent westerly winds will continue to transport a steady stream of moisture into the region through Thursday with snow continuing in many places.
Travel through the passes of the Northwest is expected to become treacherous tonight and Wednesday when the bulk of the snow will fall. I-90 could be impacted, as well as I-5 in southern Oregon.
By Thursday evening, high pressure should begin to take hold of the region, putting an end to the wintry weather.
While this latest storm system dumps fresh powder on the Northwest, more wintry weather will impact the northern Plains and Northeast.

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Snow Albany to Boston Wednesday, Thursday

Feb 28, 2012; 2:22 PM ET
Snow is forecast to blanket the countryside Wednesday into Thursday in portions of New England and eastern upstate New York. (Photo by Dennis Tangney/Photos.com)
The same storm delivering a Leap Day blizzard to portions of the northern Plains and the Upper Midwest will push snow, ice and rain into the Northeast beginning Wednesday.
The storm will result in slow travel for many, shoveling snow for some and umbrella weather for others.
During Wednesday morning, a wintry mix will break out across western and central upstate New York, part of southern Ontario and portions of central Pennsylvania. The wintry mix will constitute not only areas of snow and rain, but also areas of some sleet and freezing rain.
Slippery surfaces are possible in this area due to the early start of the wintry precipitation Wednesday. More widespread problems will develop farther east later Wednesday into Thursday.


A larger snowfall forecast map is available on AccuWeather.com's Winter Weather Site

According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Brian Wimer, "During Wednesday midday and afternoon, the time of the day and the intensity of the snow and wintry mix will play a role on the condition of road surfaces."
Where frozen precipitation falls at a heavy rate, it will overwhelm the late-February sun effect and can accumulate on roads. This is possible in portions of New England, eastern upstate New York, northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.
"Snow would continue to accumulate on non-paved areas regardless," Wimer said.
Soaking rain is in store for the mid-Atlantic, including from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia.
A brief period of wintry precipitation is forecast in some of the northern and western suburbs of Philadelphia and within the New York metro area during the middle of the day Wednesday, prior to a change to rain. However, few road problems are anticipated due to the timing of the event.


This map shows the general weather conditions expected during the day Wednesday.
As the storm evolves, delays from fog and low clouds could be problem at the airports for a time from the south coast of New England to the coastal mid-Atlantic.
A delay in the changeover to rain by a couple of hours can result in greater accumulation and will depend on a mere couple of degrees not only at the surface, but up through several-thousand feet above the ground.
A very marked increase in accumulation is expected a few miles north on the Thruway from New York City to Albany and on I-91 heading northward through the Connecticut River Valley.
According to Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski, "The storm will continue or get a second wind later Wednesday night into Thursday."


From later Wednesday into Thursday, the southern edge of the snow and wintry mix area will erode northward, but only to a certain point.
If the storm behaves as expected, people from Albany, N.Y., to Rutland, Vt., Concord, N.H., Worcester, Mass., and portions of northern Connecticut could have snow up to their shins by Thursday midday or sooner.
The storm has the potential to be the biggest single-snow event of the season for the cities of Albany and Boston, which escaped the worst of the freak snowstorm of late October.

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