Tuesday, April 10, 2012
.jpg)
.jpg)
AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | At Least Five Days of Severe Weather
At Least Five Days of Severe Weather
Apr 10, 2012; 8:22 AM ET
Comments:
1. The maps below once again depict the areas for severe weather through Saturday. As long as we have the trough in the West and East, the southern Plains will remain vulnerable through Saturday and perhaps even beyond that. Most of the impacts will be hail for the next couple of days with an increasing chance of tornadoes from Thursday through Saturday as the western trough migrates into the western Plains. I think by Friday in eastern Kansas, northern Missouri and southern Iowa, those areas could be ripe for tornadoes.
2. Northeast will remain chilly through Wednesday with more snow showers over the higher elevations. The cold should move out on Thursday allowing for much warmer weather to come in this weekend. Yea!
Icebergs Still Threaten Ships 100 Years After Titanic
Acoording to the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), icebergs can develop into a variety of shapes as they break apart. (Photo Ted Scambos, NSIDC) By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Apr 10, 2012; 12:05 PM ET
One hundred years after the RMS Titanic foundered in icy waters 375 miles south of Newfoundland, the dangers of vessels striking an iceberg continue.Shipboard radar, satellite photos, global positioning systems (GPS) and aircraft patrols have made the North Atlantic safer now than it was during the early 1900s.
However, despite improvements in detection methods and more accurate ship positions, as well as trending warmer seas melting the icebergs faster, ships continue to have close encounters with these frozen, floating objects.
According to the BBC, between 1980 and 2005 there have been 57 incidents with vessels involving icebergs.
The greatest danger from icebergs today is from much smaller objects than portrayed here. It is believed that the RMS Titanic struck a small- to medium-sized iceberg. Graphic by Al Blasko, AccuWeather.com
On Nov. 23, 2007, the MS Explorer struck submerged ice, believed to be part of an iceberg, and sank in the Southern Ocean.
RELATED:
New Images of the Titanic Wreck Revealed
Is It Possible to Build an "Unsinkable" Ship?
The Extraordinary Story of the White Star Liner Titanic
While the number of icebergs tends to vary greatly from year to year there are, on average, 15,000 icebergs born annually. Interestingly, in some years there can be up to 40,000 icebergs calved. In the Northern Hemisphere, between 1 and 2 percent of all the icebergs reach southward to 48 degrees North.
The most significant problem facing shipping and detection measures has to do with the size of the icebergs.
In the Northern Hemisphere, most of the icebergs are calved from West Greenland glaciers. Calving occurs when pieces of the ice break off and float into the sea, or when a large iceberg breaks up into a smaller one. From Greenland, the surviving icebergs eventually drift southward via the Labrador Current into the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Image appears courtesy of the United States Coast Guard.
In the northwestern Atlantic, as the cold Labrador current interacts with the warm Gulf Stream, eddies form. These swirls of water, combined with surface winds can transport the icebergs farther south (and east) on occasion.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the calving occurs around Antarctica from ice shelves and glaciers. Similarly wind and currents transport the icebergs away from the South Pole continent.
According to Dr. Peter Wadhams, "There are more icebergs now than there were in 1912."
Wadhams is Professor of Ocean Physics, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, at the University of Cambridge, United Kingdom.
"During the past 10 years, the downhill flow rate of the Greenland glaciers has doubled in speed and is contributing to a larger number of icebergs being calved," Wadhams said.
Based on a study done by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, which tracked calving of Greenland icebergs as far back as 1890, the calving rate in recent years was matched only during a period during the 1930s.
Wadhams stated that warmer seas were accelerating the melting process, but at the same time are calving smaller bergs out of the larger ones.
The smaller icebergs are known as growlers (less than 3.3 feet high by less than 16 feet long) and bergy bits (3.3 to 16 feet high by 16 to 49 feet long).
"The growlers and bergy bits are difficult to detect by radar and satellite, yet are still capable of damaging or sinking a ship. Since there are more icebergs and they are melting faster, we can expect a bigger population of growlers and berg bits, so more danger to shipping," Wadhams explained.
There continues to be more evidence that ocean temperatures have been rising and for a longer period of time than once thought.
Ocean water warming was believed to have initiated about 50 years ago, but is now believed to have begun over 100 years ago according to a study done by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.
According to a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) funded 2006 study that spanned 20 years, the combined loss of mountain glaciers and ice caps averaged 402 gigatonnes per year.
The retreat of Arctic sea ice has opened new, shorter fuel-saving routes for shipping during the warmer months of the year. Sea ice is different than icebergs and forms as sea surface water freezes.
In addition, a number of vessels, including super freighters are ripping along routes through the Southern Ocean, avoiding the log jam of vessels in the Panama and Suez canals.
However, since there are more ships venturing into polar waters these days, the risk of collision from vessels striking the larger number of growlers or bergy bits out there also increases.
Not only are there dangers to ships, but also petroleum platforms in northern and southern latitudes.
So while research, technology and patrols over the past 100 years have made the sea less perilous in terms of striking the big icebergs, significant risks continue for coming in contact with the smaller, yet potentially destructive growlers and bergy bits.
More Information:
In the months that followed after the Titanic sank near Newfoundland in 1912, the United States and 12 other nations formed the International Ice Patrol to warn ships of icebergs in the North Atlantic. This was joined by aircraft patrols in the 1930s, radar after World War II and improved satellite resolution and patrols during the latter half of the 20th century. The U.S. National Ice Center currently uses satellites to track large icebergs near Antarctica.
This image made from a webcam on board the MS Nordnorge shows the the Liberian-flagged M/S Explorer listing in Antarctic waters, Friday, Nov. 23, 2007. More than 150 passengers and crew took to lifeboats in Antarctic waters. (AP Photo)
The RMS Titantic foundered, bow first, on April 15, 1912. Of the 2,224 passengers, 1,514 drowned or succumbed to hypothermia in freezing waters. The wreck lies in 12,415 feet of water.
Observations on board Titanic indicated a 10 degree (F) drop in sea surface temperatures (from the lower 40s to the lower 30s) in two hours during the early evening of the 14th. This supports the idea that the Titanic passed from relatively warm Gulf Stream waters to the colder influence of the Labrador Current.
The water temperature in Titanic's vicinity at the time of the collision late in the evening of the 14th was said to be in the upper 20s. Sea water freezes at a lower temperature (approximately 28.4 degrees F) than freshwater.
The extremely frigid waters expedited hypothermia among the mass of people adrift. Most died within minutes after plunging into the sea.
Florida Drought Fuels Wildfires
Apr 10, 2012; 11:51 AM ET
Photo of firefighter in a 2009 Florida wildfire posted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Southeast RegionA long-term drought in parts of the Southeast, especially in Florida, has reached severe levels as measured by the Climate Prediction Center's Palmer Index. The drought is having far-reaching effects, the most obvious being tinderbox dry vegetation that is fueling a high risk for wildfires.
"This is normally the dry season in Florida," AccuWeather's Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. "But it's even drier than usual and this comes after a dry 2011 in parts of the state."
A look at the year-to-date rainfall deficits for the Southeast shows the seriousness of the drought so far in 2012.
Jacksonville is one of the driest stations in the nation this year relative to normal, as only 31 percent of normal rainfall has fallen there; a deficit of nearly 8 inches. Fort Myers, Fla., is also very dry at 31 percent of normal rainfall so far this year. Many are reporting less than half of normal rainfall, and most are reporting rainfall less than normal for 2012 to date.
Only one location in Florida, Miami, is reporting above-normal rainfall.
The drought has led to several wildfires across the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida. By far, the worst of the wildfires are in Florida. As of Monday morning, 18 different wildfires were reported across the Sunshine State. Most of the fires are relatively small, engulfing no more than a few hundred acres.
However, the County Line Fire in the Osceola National forest near the Columbia-Baker County border has scorched about 11,000 acres. The County Line Fire has been responsible for poor visibility along I-10 in parts of North Florida, and smoke from the wildfire has spread into the Jacksonville area Monday as well. Smoke from the County Line Fire is clearly seen on visible satellite pictures of northern Florida.
Visible satellite pictures from late Monday showed the smoke plume from the County Line Fire in Florida between Jacksonville and Tallahassee.
The wildfires around the Southeast have contributed to reduced air quality in some areas. Early Monday afternoon, the air quality near Jacksonville was rated as "unhealthy" by AIRNow.gov, which recommended that those with lung or heart problems, the elderly and children avoid prolonged heavy exertion.
Many communities in the Southeast, especially in Florida, have had to institute water restrictions as well. The most stringent restrictions are in northern and central Florida, where many communities are limiting car washing and lawn watering to one day per week and only during the evening and early morning hours.
The drought is having a significant impact on farmers in the region as well. The crops in the area are requiring much more irrigation than usual, further stressing area rivers and streams.
The forecast does not show much hope for improvement, especially in the short term. No significant rain is in the forecast for the next week or so in Florida, according to Kottlowski. "There's some hope for significant rain during the middle or latter part of next week when the storm behind the one hitting the west crosses the country," he said. However, the rain is far from guaranteed, he said. "It wouldn't surprise me if in the end, the storm that might bring some rain to Florida late next week ends up bypassing them to the north," said Kottlowski.
The medium- to long-range forecast is not looking much better, either. According to AccuWeather.com's Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, most of Florida will see below-normal rainfall for the rest of April and in May. His forecast does show some hope for a return to near-normal rainfall in June, though.
If you see a wildfire burning, let us know. Send your pictures to @AccuWeather. We value your photos, but we value your life more. Please take shelter in dangerous situations.
Kottlowski also mentioned an apparent correlation between dry weather in the spring and the hurricane season. "Usually when Florida experiences a dry spring, the chances are better for a tropical storm or hurricane to hit the state later in the year," he said. If that works out this year, it would bring welcome rain to the parched state, but, of course, bring with it the usual damaging consequences of a tropical system.
by Frank Strait, senior meteorolgist
UK March Third Warmest, Fifth Driest
Image courtesy of the UK Met Office. By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Apr 10, 2012; 10:08 AM ET
Record warmth in Scotland powered March average U.K. temperature to the third highest in the modern record, the U.K. Met Office blog said last week.It was the warmest U.K. March since 1957, the blog added.
Although all of the UK was nominally warmer than normal, the most extraordinary readings were registered over Scotland and into northern England and Northern Ireland.
A spell of unusually sunny, warm days during the last week of the month allowed wide areas of northern U.K., most of all Scotland, to reach 20 degrees C (68 F) and more--easily befitting midsummer at the region's northerly latitude.
Topping all of the Scotland warm spots was Aboyne, which reached 23.6 degrees C (74.5 F) on the 27th, for the highest March temperature on record in Scotland.
Oddly, perhaps, the record high broken on March 27th had been set on the 26th, when, in turn, a new top temperature reached on the 25th was eclipsed, the Met Office blog said late in March.
Meanwhile, March 2012 was the fifth driest in the modern record, having an average of only 38 percent of normal precipitation over the U.K. as a whole.
The dryness allowed ongoing drought to worsen in parts of eastern and southeastern England.
The modern climate record for the U.K. dates back to 1910, according to the Met Office.
Ice Out on Canada Lake Earliest Known
Lake Winnipeg is the biggest of the Manitoba "great lakes." (image credit: Wikipedia Commons/Norman Einstein) By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Apr 10, 2012; 9:50 AM ET
Ice has melted from southern Lake Winnipeg earlier than any time in memory following months of unusual warmth in central Canada, the CBC News website said on Monday.Robert Kristjanson, member of a Manitoba family that has been fishing commercially for more than 120 years said, "in my time I have never seen it as early."
"In 1951 [the ice] went out very early but not this early," the 78-year-old Kristjanson added.
Normally, ice fishing season on Lake Winnipeg's southern basin would last until mid-April.
Kristjanson expressed worry that early ice out would allow commercial fishing to begin early, before fish have a chance to spawn. Usually, commercial fishing would not begin until mid-May.
Winter was abnormally mild in Winnipeg and southern Manitoba, albeit plenty cold enough for ice to form on Manitoba's "great lake."
Winnipeg climate data accessed by AccuWeather.com showed that the winter months of December through February had an average temperature of -9.6 degrees C (14.7 F), or 6.4 degrees C (11.5 F) above normal.
Record warmth followed in March, a month that saw Winnipeg set both its highest maximum temperature (23.9 degrees C on the 19th), and its highest monthly average reading.
Lake Winnipeg is about as big as Lake Erie, and its southern basin takes in a rather small fraction of the lake.
Fire Weather Continues in the East
Red Flag Warnings are issued by the National Weather Service when there is a high risk of wildfires due to weather conditions. Flames jump the roadway in Suffolk County, N.Y., as a roaring brush fire threatens homes and commercial buildings on Long Island, Monday, April 9, 2012. (AP Photo/Robert Garofalo) By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
Apr 10, 2012; 9:17 AM ET
The risk of wildfires and rapidly spreading urban fires will continue in the East until drenching rain arrives and winds subside.The combination of dry brush, low humidity, warm sunshine and wind will continue to drive the threat of wildfires skyward over much of the Atlantic Seaboard and the Appalachians this week.
Rainfall has only been between 20 and 50 percent of normal since Feb. 1, 2012, along much of the I-95 corridor.
The strong circulation around a storm at most levels of the atmosphere centered over the St. Lawrence Valley was kicking up winds and dragging down dry air from Canada during the Easter Weekend.
The low humidity makes fuel, such as wood, leaves, etc., more combustible, while the wind can rapidly fan the flames and carry burning embers to distant locations.
While chilly air and spotty showers will invade the Northeast the next couple of days, lowering the threat slightly, it will not be enough to alleviate the fire danger everywhere completely.
Stiff winds from the west and northwest will continue to be a problem for firefighters through Wednesday and Thursday.
There is a chance of showers (and thunderstorms) this weekend, but it does not appear to be the type of rainfall that would end the threat of wildfires.
Episodes of strong winds will continue to be a problem in the I-95 corridor through nearly the end of the week.
As a ridge of high pressure slides eastward, a period of calm conditions should progress eastward Friday. However, with the approach of a front, winds may kick up rather forcefully from the Southwest over the weekend. As temperatures creep up over the weekend, relative humidity levels will drop.
In some instances, fires in recent days may have been sparked from downed power lines, knocked loose by the gusty winds.
In many cases, however, fires were likely sparked by human activity. There have been no thunderstorms in the vicinity over the past several days, except for in portions of western Pennsylvania, northern West Virginia and eastern Ohio.
This map shows detected lightning strikes (green dots) during the 72-hour period ending at 11:00 a.m. EDT April 10, 2012.
In Pennsylvania alone, there were over two dozen wildfires in state parks and game lands in recent days.
Two hikers had to be assisted by park rangers in the French Creek State Park fire on Monday. While the blaze was under control Tuesday, it continued to burn through the midday hours.
RELATED:
Florida Drought Fuels Wildfires
A brush fire on Staten Island stalled travel on the West Shore Expressway Monday. Similarly, a brush fire caused train delays in Connecticut on Monday.
On Long Island, N.Y., buildings were damaged and homes were evacuated in Riverhead, due to brush fires.
The strong winds and dry air have also caused problems for firefighters battling blazes in urban areas. The winds were pushing fires from structure to structure before being extinguished.
At least two such fires occurred recently in Scranton and Philadelphia, Pa.
According to the Associated Press, two firefighters were killed in the Philadelphia factory fire.
The Philadelphia fire spread to several nearby homes and dozens of people were evacuated due to the risk of airborne burning embers starting new fires.
Fortunately, no one was killed in the Scranton blaze. However, according to WNEP-TV, seven people were forced from their homes and one pet died.
People are urged to be very careful with outdoor power equipment and avoid outdoor burning and campfires in the dry, windy weather. Don't toss burning cigarette butts out your car window.
Hot exhaust systems from vehicles and power equipment that have been running can ignite the dry brush beneath them.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Drought Monitor, there is a growing area of abnormally dry (yellow) conditions in the East, northern Plains and West this week. (Orange and red areas indicated progressively more intense regions of drought).
Another Round of Severe Storms for Southern Plains
Picture of an ominous sky courtesy of Photos.com Apr 10, 2012; 8:45 AM ET
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will ignite across portions of the southern Plains this afternoon.
These strong storms will fire in many of the same places that were affected by severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday.
A lingering stationary boundary draped cross the Lone Star State will provide the spark for damaging thunderstorms this afternoon.
Cooler northeasterly winds will clash with warm and moist southerly winds, setting the stage for an eruption of severe storms.
Locations who are at risk this afternoon and evening include the Texas Panhandle, North Texas, western Oklahoma and extreme eastern New Mexico. Cities include Clovis, N.M, in addition to Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas.
Similarly to Monday, the most significant threat initially will be large hail. The strongest storms that develop will have the potential to produce hail the size of baseballs. Hail of this size can cause a considerable amount of damage to vehicles, homes and vegetation.
Thunderstorms will also be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, torrential downpours and frequent lightning.
While the possibility of a brief tornado cannot be ruled out, the overall threat for tornadoes is low.
If you see a storm brewing, let us know. Send your pictures to @AccuWeather. And, while we love your pics, please take them safely!
Many areas in North Texas and the Texas Panhandle are in the midst of severe to exceptional drought. While storms that develop can bring beneficial rain, too much in a short time period can cause flash flooding, especially in flat, low lying areas.
Moreover, the beneficial rain also comes at the expense of damaging hail and strong winds.
Looking ahead, the atmosphere seems prime for more severe weather across the central and southern Plains as the week progresses.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Matt Alto, "residents in many of these areas will likely have to contend with more strong storms through the remainder of the week."
As always, keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for the latest on the severe weather potential.
Monday, April 9, 2012
AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Two Storm, One High and Plenty of Wind
Apr 9, 2012; 10:18 AM ET
Monday, 11:40 a.m.
Spring tends to be pretty windy on average. There are multiple reasons for that. One of the bigger reasons is that there is better mixing at this time of the year thanks to a higher sun angle. The jet stream has not come close to retreating all the way to its general summer position, so there is still a lot of wind blowing over our heads. With more sunshine and better mixing, those strong winds aloft can be brought to or near the surface much more easily.
Now when you combine that with a big storm and a big high on the weather map that are not too distant from one another, and you have a good reason to generate even more wind. After all, air wants to flow from areas of high pressure toward areas of low pressure. If you have a bigger high or a bigger low, or even both, then, all other things being equal, you'll see more wind being generated. And the closer you push these two systems together, that difference in pressure squeezed into a smaller distance will also lead to more wind.
Which brings us to the morning weather map, which has a large storm centered near Caribou, Maine, and another storm swirling around off the West coast. Between the two, high pressure has nestled into Arkansas, with an even larger high over the Northwest Territories:
There is a fair amount of moisture associated with the storm off the West coast, though that moisture will be slow to spread inland early this week. That translates to a couple of warm days over the interior West, and it will also be warm throughout the Rockies until a piece of this offshore trough rotates inland through Southern California tomorrow night and Wednesday.
In contrast, there is very little moisture associated with the storm over northern New England. What there is has been rotating inland from off the Atlantic through eastern Canada into New England and New York state, and this will lead to a lot of clouds along with widely scattered showers. And believe it or not, there can even be some wet snow in the mountains from northern New England into the Green and White Mountains.
This moisture, though, is pretty limited, and precipitation amounts will be minimal. In fact, with the wind, in most areas far more moisture will be evaporated than what will be gained through rain over the next few days. Look at all of the areas with a red flag warning:
Think about those red areas (red flag warnings for high fire danger) for a moment, especially in the East. Go back to last year. What happened? Record or near-record precipitation. That no doubt encouraged a lot of the undergrowth to flourish. Now go through the winter, and while it stayed wet early on, it dried out during the second half of the winter season. And there has been virtually no snowmelt this spring. Add to that the incredible warmth in March that dried things out further, and now toss in a lot of days on end with dry air and strong winds, and it's a tinderbox. Any little spark can quickly become a roaring brush or forest fire. Already we've some relatively small ones compared to what developed in Jefferson County, Calif. I fear more are imminent, as there should be so little rain the rest of the week.
The next big storm will come out of the West toward the northern Plains this weekend, but areas east of the Mississippi and south of I-70 will not get much in the way of organized rainfall. The best hope may come early next week as a cold front squeezes through the flow and tries to generate some rain and thunderstorms.
AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Active Week of Severe Weather. Some Snow in the Northeast
Apr 9, 2012; 8:17 AM ET
Comments
1. The maps below show the severe weather for the week. This is going to an active week for severe weather with impacts being mainly wind and hail, but as the western trough comes out by midweek, we may have to be concerned about tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma.
2. The Northeast is going to be chilly for a few days, and with that, snow showers will hit the higher elevations and even some the valley locations. Snowfall over the higher elevations will be 1-3 inches, especially across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
3. This is probably the last shot of cold weather for the Northeast in regards to the departure from normal. The operational models seem to indicate that the cold shot is the last one and that we are going into a milder weather pattern, not exactly record warmth like we saw in March.
Florida Drought Fuels Wildfires
Visible satellite pictures from late Monday showed the smoke plume from the County Line Fire in Florida between Jacksonville and Tallahassee. Apr 9, 2012; 4:30 PM ET
A long-term drought in parts of the Southeast, especially in Florida, has reached severe levels as measured by the Climate Prediction Center's Palmer Index. The drought is having far-reaching effects, the most obvious being tinderbox dry vegetation that is fueling a high risk for wildfires.
"This is normally the dry season in Florida," AccuWeather's Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. "But it's even drier than usual and this comes after a dry 2011 in parts of the state."
A look at the year-to-date rainfall deficits for the Southeast shows the seriousness of the drought so far in 2012.
Jacksonville is one of the driest stations in the nation this year relative to normal, as only 31 percent of normal rainfall has fallen there; a deficit of nearly 8 inches. Fort Myers, Fla., is also very dry at 31 percent of normal rainfall so far this year. Many are reporting less than half of normal rainfall, and most are reporting rainfall less than normal for 2012 to date.
Only one location in Florida, Miami, is reporting above-normal rainfall.
The drought has led to several wildfires across the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida. By far, the worst of the wildfires are in Florida. As of Monday morning, 18 different wildfires were reported across the Sunshine State. Most of the fires are relatively small, engulfing no more than a few hundred acres.
However, the County Line Fire in the Osceola National forest near the Columbia-Baker County border has scorched about 11,000 acres. The County Line Fire has been responsible for poor visibility along I-10 in parts of North Florida, and smoke from the wildfire has spread into the Jacksonville area Monday as well. Smoke from the County Line Fire is clearly seen on visible satellite pictures of northern Florida.
The wildfires around the Southeast have contributed to reduced air quality in some areas. Early Monday afternoon, the air quality near Jacksonville was rated as "unhealthy" by AIRNow.gov, which recommended that those with lung or heart problems, the elderly and children avoid prolonged heavy exertion.
Many communities in the Southeast, especially in Florida, have had to institute water restrictions as well. The most stringent restrictions are in northern and central Florida, where many communities are limiting car washing and lawn watering to one day per week and only during the evening and early morning hours.
The drought is having a significant impact on farmers in the region as well. The crops in the area are requiring much more irrigation than usual, further stressing area rivers and streams.
The forecast does not show much hope for improvement, especially in the short term. No significant rain is in the forecast for the next week or so in Florida, according to Kottlowski. "There's some hope for significant rain during the middle or latter part of next week when the storm behind the one hitting the west crosses the country," he said. However, the rain is far from guaranteed, he said. "It wouldn't surprise me if in the end, the storm that might bring some rain to Florida late next week ends up bypassing them to the north," said Kottlowski.
The medium- to long-range forecast is not looking much better, either. According to AccuWeather.com's Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, most of Florida will see below-normal rainfall for the rest of April and in May. His forecast does show some hope for a return to near-normal rainfall in June, though.
Kottlowski also mentioned an apparent correlation between dry weather in the spring and the hurricane season. "Usually when Florida experiences a dry spring, the chances are better for a tropical storm or hurricane to hit the state later in the year," he said. If that works out this year, it would bring welcome rain to the parched state, but, of course, bring with it the usual damaging consequences of a tropical system.
by Frank Strait, senior meteorolgist
Storms to Produce Large Hail in Southern Plains
By Matt Alto, Meteorologist
Apr 9, 2012; 4:00 PM ET
A few powerful thunderstorms capable of producing large damaging hail will erupt over parts of the southern and central Plains later today.As warm and moist air clashes with dry air along a stationary boundary over the region, these strong thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and last through the nighttime hours.
Locations from extreme southwestern Kansas, western and central Oklahoma as well as portions of the Texas Panhandle and North Texas will be at risk today and tonight.
The primary threat with these storms is going to be very large hail.
The strongest storms will have the potential to produce hail as large as softballs in the far eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Hail of this magnitude can certainly cause damage to vehicles, roofs and vegetation.
In addition to the threat of hail and strong winds, lightning and heavy downpours will accompany each storm.
While the overall threat for tornadoes appears to be low, there is a narrow window of opportunity this evening for an isolated tornado to develop.
The storms will develop across far southern Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma and in the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. As the storms develop, they will quickly turn severe as they progress southward.
As this complex continues to push to the south and east, the threat for hail will gradually diminish. However, the primary threat will then become strong and damaging winds as the storms continue into tonight.
Residents in many of these areas will likely have to contend with more strong storms through the remainder of the week. Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com for the latest on the severe weather potential.
Stormy Week for California: Rain, Mountain Snow in Store
Rain in Oakland, Calif. Photo by Flickr user Greg Woodhouse Photography. By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Apr 9, 2012; 3:58 PM ET
Late-season storms will impact the West this week, bringing much cooler air, rain and mountain snow to California.The first storm will be rather slow-moving, spreading rain into the Bay Area of California by late tonight. Rain will spread slowly inland Tuesday into Tuesday night.
"This will be a pretty good rainmaker," Ken Clark, AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist, said. "A general rainfall in north-central California from the Bay Area to Sacramento will be 0.50-1.00 inch."
Even more rain will fall in the western slopes of the coastal ranges and the Sierra.
While the rain is welcome in California, travel problems are likely to result. Low clouds and rain could delay flights at the San Francisco International Airport, while traffic may be slowed on the ground.
"Rain will reach the Los Angeles Basin late tomorrow night into Wednesday morning with about one third to two thirds of an inch falling," Clark said.
Snow will fall over the mountains of Southern California by midweek with snow levels as low as 4,500 feet. Some snow may even mix in down to pass level, but no accumulation is expected.
The cooler and unsettled weather pattern will last through late-week in the West.
A Freeze Later This Week May Damage Crops
Apr 9, 2012; 3:50 PM ET
An exceptionally warm March over the eastern half of the country has led to the early growth of trees and shrubs, early flower blossoms and an early start to the pollen season, especially across the Southeast. Farmers and gardeners have taken advantage of the early warmth by planting early.
However, the weather pattern for the early and middle part of April has changed to one that allows colder air to push into the eastern part of the nation again.
This will result in an a couple of unseasonably cold nights over the eastern part of the country later this week when a polar air mass settles in. Freezing temperatures and frost will be found into parts of the South as a result.
It looks as though the coldest time will span Wednesday night and Thursday morning, when freezing temperatures could be found as far south as Interstate 85 in Georgia and the Carolinas. Readings may dip into the 20s over the mountains and in parts of eastern Tennessee and Kentucky.
Freezes can still occur well into the South in April. In fact, both Atlanta and Charlotte have seen a freeze as late as April 25. Raleigh has experienced freezing temperatures as late as May 10. Montgomery, Ala. and Jackson, Miss. have recorded freezes in mid-April. So, it is certainly not unprecedented for freezes this time of the year into the South.
A damaging frost can occur even later. An official low temperature at or below freezing is not required for frost, since official temperature measurements are made at about 6 feet off the ground. Therefore, on a clear and calm night, the ground itself can be below freezing and frost may form.
Fortunately, the cold that is coming will not be too severe, and a hard freeze, where the ground freezes solid, is not anticipated since that would require lows in the middle 20s. So, only the plants most susceptible to the late cold, such as tomatoes, are likely to be affected. Some of the colorful spring flowers that have bloomed early, such as azaleas, are likely to experience a setback. Corn farmers that have gambled by planting early may see some damage from the cold.
Hardier plants, or those well advanced in their growing cycle, should be largely unaffected. While it will be a close call for peach growers in Georgia and South Carolina, their crop should emerge mostly unscathed and on track for a bumper crop. On the other hand, apple growers in North Carolina and Virginia may see more significant damage to their crop, some of which was already damaged by earlier freezes on blossoms that were out well earlier than usual.
It also looks as though the cold spell will be short-lived, with a warming trend starting Friday afternoon. Highs in the 80s should return by Sunday over most of the South with 70s into the Midwest and parts of the Northeast.
By Frank Strait, senior meteorolgist
West Warming Up Early This Week
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist
Apr 9, 2012; 1:04 PM ET
As the Northeast cools, the West will continue to experience a warmup early this week.In some areas, the warmup will be dramatic enough that record highs will fall just a few days after new record lows were established.
A buckle in the jet stream is responsible for the warmup. The counterbalance will be a "dip" across the East, which will make for a chilly, and potentially snowy couple of days in parts of the Northeast.
Toward midweek, a storm system slowly pushing ashore will eat into the warm dome with some cooler Pacific air and showers, but not until after millions enjoy a beautiful start to the week.
Temperatures over the next few days will soar well into the 80s across the Southwest and even past 90 degrees over many interior desert locations.
In downtown Los Angeles on Saturday, the mercury topped out at 84 degrees, the warmest it has been in more than a month.
A cooler ocean flow will gradually cool off the Southland early in the new workweek, but areas farther east, such as Yuma and Phoenix, Ariz., will continue to top out near 90 through Tuesday.
After a cold snap dating back to late last week where temperatures dropped into the teens and 20s, Mother Nature will do an about face through midweek as the thermometer climbs into the 60s and 70s, a swing of up to 60 degrees in some areas!
Pocatello, Idaho, which established a new record low by dropping to 19 early on Saturday morning is forecast to approach the record high of 76 on Tuesday.
A large portion of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming still have snow on the ground after a significant storm last week. For most, the remaining accumulation will be history by midweek.
For warm weather lovers, all good things must come to an end. Much of the West will experience more typical temperatures for mid-April by the end of the week.
Easter Snowstorm Blankets Eastern Canada
Photos.com/Gregory Johnston By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Apr 9, 2012; 11:52 AM ET
An Easter weekend snowstorm left residents eastern Canada digging out from up to 35 cm of snow.The storm, unleashing strong winds and high tides along with the snow, caused some travel headaches and left some residents without electrical power for a time.
The provinces of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick were targeted, as was eastern Quebec.
By Sunday night, snowfall of 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) was spread widely over the region. Moncton, New Brunswick, picked up 25 cm (10 inches), for instance.
As of Monday morning, additional overnight snowfall in eastern Quebec boosted snowfall to 35 cm (about 14 inches) at Gaspe.
Power outages affected about 1,300 customers in New Brunswick, according to the CBC News website.
Air passengers flying through Halifax Stanfield International Airport experienced some delays.
Certain vehicles were restricted from the Confederation Bridge, linking New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, due to the high winds.
Forecasters warned of high storm tides in coastal areas.
Monday, the worst of the storm being over, rising temperatures and a waning of the precipitation helped to clear roads and melt the snow already on the ground.
NOAA Release: Unprecedented March Warmth
By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Apr 9, 2012; 12:28 PM ET
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their March 2012 National Overview report today, confirming that March was more than just a month of scattered warmth -- it shattered records across the U.S., becoming the only month ever recorded, except for January 2006, that had surpassed its record by such a large margin.According to NOAA, the average temperature across the U.S. was 8.6 degrees above the 20th century average.
However, the report did not just reveal that certain parts of the U.S. had unseasonable warmth; no region was exempt from the weather anomalies.
The Northeast had its warmest March in 118 years this year, averaging 44.4 degrees F, 9.8 degrees above the average for the region.
In the Midwest region, it was the warmest March on record for the region as a whole and individually for each of the nine states within it. Over 6,400 daily temperature records were recorded for the region, 650 of which were records for any day in March.
In the Southeast, Virginia, the Carolinas and northern Georgia and Alabama had monthly temperatures that were 9 to 10 degrees F above average. Birmingham, Ala., Tampa, Fla., Atlanta, Ga., Columbia, S.C., Raleigh-Durham, N.C., and Roanoke, Va., all had their warmest March on record. Additionally, many locations in the Southeast experienced all-time March records for number of days with 80-degree-F temperatures and higher.
The High Plains had many summerlike days throughout March, with widespread monthly temperature departures of 9 to 15 degrees. Average monthly temperature records were broken in each state in the region, some of which had been in place for over 100 years. Many cities broke record high daily temperatures, as well, with some as high as 17 degrees above average.
In the South, mean temperatures for the month ranged from 3 to 15 degrees F above normal. Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee each had their warmest March since records began in 1895.
The West was the coolest region of the U.S. throughout March, but it still experienced some record highs. Long Beach, Calif., hit a record high of 91 F for March 4.
AccuWeather.com's Long-Range Forecasting Team expected the unusual warmth during March and this spring in general.
"At least two-thirds of the nation could wind up with above-normal temperatures (during spring 2012)," AccuWeather.com Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, wrote in a forecast back in late February.
Pastelok said that spring of 2012 would feature the most widespread warmth since 2004.
For the full report on the unprecedented March warmth, click here.
Sunday, April 8, 2012
Wildfire Smoke Threatens Motorists in Florida
Photo by Photos.com. By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 5:12 PM ET
Smoke from a massive wildfire in northern Florida poses a serious threat to motorists on major interstates.The Columbia Line Fire continues to burn in extreme northern Florida near the border of Baker and Columbia counties.
The fire had consumed more than 4,500 acres, according the Lake City Reporter, at the start of today.
No structures or private property are in immediate danger with the fire confined to the boundaries of the Osceola National Forest. However, smoke is pouring away from the blaze and creating other dangers.
Earlier today, thick smoke plagued motorists traveling on I-10 through the Osceola National Forest.
Smoke even spread nearly 70 miles southward to Gainesville, passing over I-75 in the process.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists expect winds to shift to the east tonight, taking the smoke away from I-75 and the Gainesville area but toward Jacksonville.
Poor visibility will remain a danger to motorists traveling on I-10 in between Jacksonville and the intersection of I-75.
The smoke may spread into downtown Jacksonville Monday morning, creating a nightmare for those with respiratory issues. Poor visibility would then become a concern for motorists on I-95.
Motorists traveling across northeastern Florida are urged to maintain safe driving distance between other vehicles into Monday.
The smoke could make it difficult to see vehicles that are moving slowly, stopped or involved in an accident until it is too late to slow down.
Smoke was responsible for deadly car crashes on I-75 earlier this year near Gainesville.
Mudslides Kill Five in Brazil
In this frame grab from video is seen an aerial view of a mudslide in Teresopolis, Brazil, Wednesday Jan. 12, 2011. (AP Photo/TV Globo, Agencia O Globo) By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 4:26 PM ET
Heavy rainfall recently in southeast Brazil has led to flooding problems and mudslides. Some of the hardest hit areas are northeast of Rio de Janeiro where more than 20 mudslides have been reported since Friday.Areas in and around Teresopolis have experienced widespread river flooding and mudslides. Many residents had to flee their homes as flood waters flowed into the city.
Reports as of Sunday morning, indicate that at least five people have lost their lives while around 500 people have been affected by the mudslides in the region.
The rain fell so hard on Friday that the highway between Rio de Janeiro and Teresopolis had to be closed for several hours.
Flooding and mudslides are not uncommon in this part of Brazil. In January of 2011, heavy rainfall sparked flooding and mudslides that claimed over 900 lives.
Thunderstorms will be possible across the region early next week, however no prolonged heavy rainfall is expected.
West Warming Up Early This Week
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 4:11 PM ET
As the Northeast cools, the West will continue to experience a warmup early this week.In some areas, the warmup will be dramatic enough that record highs will fall just a few days after new record lows were established.
A buckle in the jet stream is responsible for the warmup. The counterbalance will be a "dip" across the East, which will make for a chilly, and potentially snowy couple of days in parts of the Northeast.
Toward midweek, a storm system slowly pushing ashore will eat into the warm dome with some cooler Pacific air and showers, but not until after millions enjoy a beautiful start to the week.
Temperatures over the next few days will soar well into the 80s across the Southwest and even past 90 degrees over many interior desert locations.
In downtown Los Angeles on Saturday, the mercury topped out at 84 degrees, the warmest it has been in more than a month.
A cooler ocean flow will gradually cool off the Southland early in the new workweek, but areas farther east, such as Yuma and Phoenix, Ariz., will continue to top out near 90 through Tuesday.
After a cold snap dating back to late last week where temperatures dropped into the teens and 20s, Mother Nature will do an about face through midweek as the thermometer climbs into the 60s and 70s, a swing of up to 60 degrees in some areas!
Pocatello, Idaho, which established a new record low by dropping to 19 early on Saturday morning is forecast to approach the record high of 76 on Tuesday.
A large portion of Idaho, Montana and Wyoming still have snow on the ground after a significant storm last week. For most, the remaining accumulation will be history by midweek.
For warm weather lovers, all good things must come to an end. Much of the West will experience more typical temperatures for mid-April by the end of the week.
Winter 2011-2012: All-Time Snowiest for Anchorage
In this March 6, 2012 file photo, a worker with a snow blower sends a shower of snow from the outside deck of the Snow Goose Restaurant down three stories onto Christensen Drive in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Dan Joling, file) By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 3:53 PM ET
It's official--Anchorage, Alaska, has received more snow this winter season than any other in recorded history.Anchorage picked up 4.3 inches of snow on Saturday, pushing the city's annual snow total to a record 134.5 inches.
The winter of 1954-55 previously held the record with 132.6 inches.
Anchorage receives 74.5 inches during a typical winter and record-keeping began in the City of Lights and Flowers in 1915.
The path to Anchorage setting the annual snow record began on Oct. 30 when 1.1 inches whitened the city.
November, December, January and February then each ended up becoming ranked as one of the top 10 snowiest on their respective month's list.
The snowiest, November, had a total of 32.4 inches and is now the third snowiest November on record.
December and its 31.1 inches (seventh snowiest December), January and its 25.2 inches (sixth snowiest January) and February and its 27.8 inches (fourth snowiest February) followed.
A lull in the action came in March with a more typical 9.5 inches falling.
Not until next weekend will stormy weather return.
Cold Rain, Wet Snow on Tap for Atlantic Canada
By Brian Edwards, Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 3:35 PM ET
A storm taking aim on Atlantic Canada will produce locally heavy rain and up to 20 cm of snow through Easter Sunday.A large dip in the jet stream located over eastern Canada will fuel the strengthening of a low pressure system over the northern Atlantic Ocean.
This system will track northward through today, spreading rain and wet snow throughout much of Newfoundland, New Brunswick and even parts of northern Maine.
After a much above-normal March and start to April across most of Atlantic Canada, temperatures are headed down below average for the next few days.
In fact, Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok stated in his spring forecast that "temperatures across the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada will flip-flop more during April and early May with some quick cool shots arriving..."
With that being said, wintry weather will continue to overspread Nova Scotia and New Brunswick from south to north, bringing a mix of rain and snow to cities such as Halifax and Fredericton.
Meanwhile, precipitation will remain generally snow across Moncton and Charlottetown with upwards of 10-15 cm of accumulation expected through the day today. Some cities and towns could even pick up as much as 20 cm!
Nonetheless, travel will remain difficult in some areas across New Brunswick and parts of Nova Scotia.
Be prepared for slow and slush-covered roadways and allow for extra time when traveling to your destination.
Farther to the east across Newfoundland, precipitation which begin as a mix of snow and rain overnight will remain all rain today.
The rain across this region could fall heavy at times overnight, producing areas of localized flooding.
Rainfall amounts of 25-40 mm are possible with localized amounts of 50 mm from Gander to St. John's and Deer Lake.
While the steadiest precipitation across Atlantic Canada will end from south to north during the day on Sunday, the aforementioned dip in the jet stream will stick around for a few days.
This will keep spotty showers, clouds and chilly temperatures in the air through the middle of next week.
Chillier Weather Awaits the Northeast This Week
AccuWeather.com Facebook fan Tony D. took this photo of snow covering flowers in Buffalo, N.Y., on March 30. While Buffalo should escape any snow this week, some higher elevations from West Virginia to New York could see a light dusting. By Bill Deger, Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 2:56 PM ET
After a spectacular Easter weekend weather-wise across the Northeast, Mother Nature may turn the calendar back a month with the new workweek.Lower temperatures will begin to arrive Easter Monday in the wake of a cold front and look to stick around for a few days.
Combined with an area of low pressure lingering over southeastern Canada, it will be an unsettled period with plenty of clouds and showers at times as atmospheric disturbances swing through the region.
At higher elevations from the central Appalachians to New York, a few snowflakes could even mix in.
The chilly, damp weather could end up ruining outdoor plans for those taking a few extra days off after the holiday weekend.
While temperatures will be lower across the board throughout the Northeast, the cold will not be exceptional. However, this will be the first prolonged period of below-normal temperatures for many areas dating back several weeks.
The mercury will only top out in the 40s across a pocket of interior areas from the central Appalachians to upstate New York for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is as much as 10 to 15 degrees below normal.
Combined with cloud cover and a fresh breeze, it will feel even cooler yet.
If this were the heart of winter, the atmospheric disturbances would actually paint swaths of snow to the coast. This time of year, any snow from these systems will tend to be more "elevation-driven," meaning it will be mainly confined to ridges and mountains where it will be colder.
The mountains of West Virginia; the Alleghenies and Poconos in Pennsylvania, as well as the Catskills and Adirondacks of New York, stand to see a few snow showers mix in with the rain both Tuesday and Wednesday.
A light accumulation is possible over some ridge and mountaintops, but will likely only last for a matter of hours thanks to the increasingly strong April sun.
While these lingering areas of low pressure are difficult to predict, it looks as though milder temperatures will begin to edge back into the region toward the end of the week as the calendar heads deeper into April.
Snow Returning to the Northeast, Great Lakes
With flowers already in bloom across the Great Lakes and Northeast, residents may be able to capture a similar picture this week. Photo by Jerry Willis/Photos.com. By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Apr 8, 2012; 4:03 PM ET
After a snowy Easter Sunday across Maine, other parts of the Northeast and Great Lakes will see snowflakes fly as this week progresses.A repeat of March's unusual and record warmth is not on tap to follow Easter Sunday across the Great Lakes and Northeast.
Instead, a stubborn storm will make cooler temperatures, brisk winds and spotty showers the norm through Tuesday across the Great Lakes. The Northeast will have to deal with the unsettled weather into at least Thursday.
With enough cold air in place, some areas will see the rain showers mix with or fall as snow on one or even several occasions.
Residents of northern Maine may feel like they have already seen their fair share of snow this week. This Easter Sunday started with 3 to 6 inches of snow whitening many communities.
A little of this snow will persist across the interior of northern New England and upstate New York tonight into Monday. Also on Monday, lake-effect snow showers will return to northern Michigan.
Other places downwind of the Great Lakes and higher elevations of the central Appalachians will begin to see snow showers fly Monday night.
The air will remain too warm for snow along the I-95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York City to Boston.
Despite the snow showers set to occur on a nearly daily basis across the Northeast, the snow totals measured across northern Maine will not be rivaled during the upcoming days.
"A light accumulation is possible over some ridge and mountaintops," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Bill Deger. The same can be said for parts of northern Michigan Monday night.
Such accumulations are most likely to occur during the nighttime hours and would be enough to create slick conditions for motorists.
Most snow will have a difficult time accumulating during the day due to the increasingly strong April sun. Even if a heavier burst coats the ground, the sun will prevent the snow from lasting more than a few hours.
Some residents throughout the Northeast will welcome the upcoming rain or snow showers, while others will regard them as a nuisance.
"The chilly, damp weather could end up ruining outdoor plans for those taking a few extra days off after the holiday weekend," added Deger.
On the other hand, the Northeast is in need of rain--evident by the elevated fire danger that spanned the region this weekend.
The problem is that the showers will not significantly wet the ground. That is especially true east of the Appalachian Mountains, where the showers will be brief and extremely spotty in nature.
In fact, the fire danger will remain elevated from Connecticut to northern Virginia on Monday with spotty showers not expected to arrive until late in the day or even Tuesday.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)