AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Computer Model Forecast for the Summer

Apr 10, 2012; 9:31 PM ET

The updated ECMWF long range seasonal forecast was released yesterday. In addition to the temperature and rainfall anomaly forecast for the summer, the model also shows......

1. ENSO phase shifting to weak/moderate El Nino by the end of summer according to its ensemble forecast.

2. Below-normal tropical activity in the central Atlantic (less Cape Verde storms), but slightly above normal activity off the Southeast U.S. coast as storms may form not too far off the coast instead of long tracking ones that form over the central Atlantic.

3. Above-normal temperatures over eastern North America for the first half of Fall.

The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Computer Model Forecast for the Summer

Dangerous Tornado Outbreak Continues into Tonight

Folks in the threat area should take the situation very seriously.

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Apr 15, 2012; 6:58 AM ET

A life-threatening situation will continue into tonight from Upper Midwest to the Mississippi River Valley as tornadic-thunderstorms continue to organize.
Madison, Wis., and Cedar Rapids, Iowa lie in the heart of the tornado threat area that extends from central Wisconsin to central Iowa.
RELATED:
Important Tornado Safety Tips to Follow
Can You Really Hide from a Tornado?
Dying to Shoot Tornadoes
The potential for additional tornadoes exists into tonight as powerful winds aloft and daytime heating help fuel severe thunderstorms. Storms that produced multiple tornadoes on Saturday will re-ignite over the next few hours.
Some of the tornadoes could be very strong and remain on the ground for miles.
Dangerous Setup for Storms
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Meghan Evans first warned of the threat for tornadoes earlier in the week, saying, "The ingredients for a tornado outbreak may come together across portions of the Plains later Saturday and Sunday"
A powerful storm that slammed into the West earlier this week is ejecting northeastward through the Plains.
The storm system, combined with a strong rush of wind aloft via the jet stream and a warm, moisture-rich air mass in place originating from the Gulf of Mexico will spark powerful thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes into tonight.
The difference in wind direction well up in the atmosphere (from the west) and at the surface (from the south) will enhance the threat for tornadoes.
The thunderstorms that will spawn the tornadoes will also drop large, damaging hail to the size of softballs, and could produce powerful wind gusts in excess of 60 mph without the help of a funnel.
Timing
Numerous tornadoes were spawned across the Plains Saturday afternoon and overnight, but as the storm system tracks eastward, more thunderstorms capable of producing damaging tornadoes will fire late this afternoon and this evening.
The greatest risk for tornadoes will be across southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and western Illinois through this evening, though any location in the Upper Midwest will have the potential for tornadoes.

Portions of several major highways will be at risk, including Interstates 30, 35, 39, 40, 44, 55, 70, 72, 74, 80, 88, 94, and 380.
If you are traveling and a potential tornado is approaching, be prepared to abandon your vehicle and seek safe shelter. Better yet, stay off the roads if you hear that thunderstorms are approaching.

Precautions
Because of the threat, it is imperative that you keep up to date with the weather situation over the next several days, especially into tonight. Have a plan of action before the storms develop.
Immediately head to the basement or a storm shelter if a warning is issued. Mobile homes and trailers should always be evacuated, as well.
Knowing ahead of time what to do in the event of a tornado or strong thunderstorm could save your life.

Dangerous Tornado Outbreak Continues into Tonight

Much-Needed Rain Approaches Europe

By Evan Duffey, Meteorologist

Apr 15, 2012; 6:55 AM ET

Parts of the U.S. aren't alone in their drought, southern Europe has been struggling to receive rainfall of late.
After an active winter, southern Europe has seen much less than their normal precipitation since March 1. Precipitation from Romania to eastern Germany has been less than 30% the normal precipitation during the time period, while much of the rest of central and eastern Europe has been under 50% of normal.
This is impacting many important agricultural areas, like grape growing regions in France and Germany, as well as more standard crops, especially hay, which rely heavily on early season precipitation in order to get seedlings going.
Luckily for the region rain is on the way, just in time to moisten the ground for planting season.
The first storm to reach the region with enough moisture to begin breaking down the drought is just arriving to the continent this afternoon, local time.
A series of storms should impact the continent the next couple of days, with widespread rainfall coming to excessively dry parts of the continent.
While the heaviest precipitation will occur with a storm moving through eastern European over the next couple of days, a flurry of storms can be expected over the next week.
A long string of storms will be good at bringing relief to the area, as steady rain over a longer period of time is more easily absorbed by the ground, as compared to a quick heavy burst, which will run-off, and can instead lead to flooding.

Much-Needed Rain Approaches Europe