Lone Star Severe Weather to Start Easter Weekend

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Apr 7, 2012; 6:01 AM ET

A few powerful thunderstorms will be on the prowl later today across Texas as dry air clashes with warm and humid air to start the holiday weekend.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the largest threats faced from storms, which could impact several large cities including San Angelo, Lubbock and Wichita Falls.
Parts of eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks of Arkansas could be threatened by the storms later today, as well.
In many areas, the day will start out dry with some sunshine, lulling some into a false sense of security.
However, by the afternoon, storms will erupt across parts of southeastern New Mexico, western Texas and central Oklahoma.
A widespread outbreak of severe weather is not expected, but rather strong storms will form in a "popcorn" nature, dotting the landscape late in the day.

The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, parts of which were devastated by tornadoes earlier in the week, will largely be spared of any thunderstorm threat today. However, some gusty and drenching storms will be possible come late tonight and on Easter Sunday.
In addition to the threat of hail and strong winds, lightning and torrential downpours will accompany every storm.
While the threat today appears very low, an isolated tornado can never be ruled out in the strongest thunderstorms.
Residents will also have to deal with more storms come Easter Sunday. As the front slowly pushes off to the south and east, showers and storms will persist from Texas into the Mississippi Valley.

Lone Star Severe Weather to Start Easter Weekend

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Snow Map and Weekly Long-Range Outlook

Apr 6, 2012; 10:41 AM ET

It appears that the slight eastward shift in the track of the storm that the computer models hinted at yesterday will be correct based on the current position of the storm. The latest models for this morning are also showing this shift.

With that in mind, it appears that Saskatoon will be on the northwestern edge of the steady snow, while Regina gets a decent April snowstorm through tonight. The highest accumulations will be northeast of Regina into tomorrow morning.

--------

My latest interpretation of the ECMWF weekly long range model that was released into our in-house system last night.

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Snow Map and Weekly Long-Range Outlook

Appalachian Frost Concerns Give Growers the Chills

Apr 6, 2012; 2:11 PM ET

Apple orchards, berry farms and vineyards across the Northeast and central Appalachians are scrambling to protect their crops for the foreseeable future as freezing temperatures threaten each night through the weekend.

After an unprecedented stretch of warm weather throughout much of March, trees, plants and vines continue to bud and bloom well ahead of schedule.

Many residents jumped for joy as early summer warmth flooded the Northeast, but farmers were well aware of the danger that such unusual temperatures posed. Exposed buds and flowers are extremely susceptible to damage from freezing temperatures.

Now, their fears are being realized.

This is the area that AccuWeather.com meteorologists are concerned about freezing temperatures early Friday morning.

There are well over a thousand apple orchards all across the Northeast and Appalachians. Most of these orchards lie in sheltered valleys and flat, low-lying plains. These areas are particularly vulnerable to heavy frosts and freezes, which occur on clear, calm nights usually associated with a large dome of high pressure. Typically, freezes like this occur for a night or two, before the weather pattern turns warmer.

This map shows locations of apple orchards in the Northeast region.

For at least the next week, the concern will be with a much chillier overall weather pattern, where brisk northerly winds will allow cool, Canadian air to settle in over the region for many nights in a row. As the jet stream dives to the south, brisk afternoons lead to hard overnight freezes, threatening many fruit trees and orchards.

The freeze threat will linger much longer in this situation, since it will take a large shift in the overall weather pattern to drive the jet stream back to the north and allow warmer air into the area.

So what can growers do to save their crops?

Some orchards across the Northeast burn small fires in what are called 'smudge pots.' These highly controlled fires burn slowly in contained areas all across the orchard, providing some heat to the nearby agriculture.

Other techniques involve using wind turbines, fans and helicopters to keep air moving over the plants. This is particularly effective on calm nights, since the air closest to the surface can drop below freezing while just a few feet above the ground remains above the 32-degree mark. While the blades themselves do not generate any warm air, they keep colder, below-freezing temperatures from pooling near the ground.

A more familiar practice involves the use of irrigation. This is more frequently seen on southeast orange farms during the winter months. The concept is the same - using sprinklers to shower the tender plants with warmer water. Not only can this physically warm the plants, but the added moisture in the air around the orchard makes it much more difficult to cool off at night. This is an expensive method however, and much of the Northeast does not have this type of infrastructure in place.

Naturally, money is the driving force behind how many growers are handling this cold snap. In some cases, the cost of preventative measures to protect the fruit flowers is greater than what the grower would bring in from the crop itself. It will be a careful balancing act for many across the Northeast this week, as orchard owners assess just how much money should be invested into preserving what is left of the fruit crop.

Unfortunately for growers, this cold weather pattern looks to continue into next week across the Northeast and the central Appalachians.

AccuWeather consensus keeps overnight temperatures below freezing across much of New York, Pennsylvania and nearby areas.

It will be a tough fight, but growers are confident they can preserve what remains of their crop.

In fact, some orchards and vineyards have reported that the recent cooler weather has slowed the budding and blossoming process a bit, fortunately.

Statistically speaking, by the time seasonable warmth returns later this month, average lows will fortunately be above freezing throughout much of the region.

Appalachian Frost Concerns Give Growers the Chills

Easter Sunday Sunrise Weather

All of us here at AccuWeather wish you peace, joy and happiness this Easter. (Image by Photos.com)

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Apr 6, 2012; 2:15 PM ET

Much of the United States and the globe will have benign weather conditions for sunrise services on Easter Sunday, 2012. However, there will be a few exceptions.
A chilly, even frosty, start to the day is in store for the Northeast. There is a chance of some wet snow for portions of Maine.
Tranquil weather is in store for the Southeast. However, there may be a passing shower along Florida's east coast and the southern counties and Keys.
Farther west, we find a few trouble spots over the Plains and the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible in portions of northern and western Texas to parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas.
Farther north, cold, gusty winds will buffet the Dakotas and Minnesota. Windswept snow will affect a large part of Manitoba and neighboring areas of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota Easter Sunday morning.

Much of the West will be free of storms. However, there will likely be fresh snow on the ground and perhaps quite a bit of it in portions of Montana, Idaho, northwestern Wyoming and southern Saskatchewan from the recent storm.
A new storm from the Pacific Ocean will approach the coastal areas of the Northwest, but showers may hold off until later Sunday and Sunday night in many locations.

Elsewhere in Canada, rain showers and breezy conditions are in store for Newfoundland, while snow mixes in farther west over part of the eastern townships of Quebec.
Across the miles, unsettled weather will occur in Iceland and portions of Europe, namely in parts of western Russia and the Adriatic, western Balkan and Baltic regions.

Easter Sunday Sunrise Weather

Millions Dealing with Drought in China

A villager drives a bullock cart across a dried-up pond in Luliang, in southwest China's Yunnan province, Monday, March 22, 2010. (AP Photo)

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

Apr 6, 2012; 2:26 PM ET

Parts of China are entering the third year of an extreme drought that has affected more than 7.8 million people and 4.6 million livestock.
Of the people being affected by this drought, more than 2 million are struggling for access to clean drinking water with many having to travel many miles each day just to fill jugs with water.
More than 4 million hectares of croplands have been hit by the drought leading to millions of dollars in losses for farmers.
Some of the hardest hit areas include the important crop producing province of Sichuan, where more than 10% of China's single season rice crop is produced.
Areas from Sichuan northeast to Shanxi have received less than 25% of normal precipitation over the past year, while areas farther south and east have fair better but still only 40-60% of normal.
Northeast China has also faced agricultural difficulties this year as a cold winter and early spring has led to frozen ground and spring plowing delays. Also, a shortage of snow throughout the winter has caused low soil moisture heading into the planting season.
China Daily reports that since December northeast China has seen its lowest amount of snow in the past 60 years. Also the Fengman Reservoir, the largest in the Jilin province, registered its lowest water level since 1995.
Some beneficial rainfall is possible in far southern China over the next week while largely dry weather will continue elsewhere in drought-stricken areas.

Millions Dealing with Drought in China

High-Powered Snowstorm Aims for Montana, Saskatchewan

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Apr 6, 2012; 3:00 PM ET

This weekend, a major snowstorm and perhaps a blizzard are aiming for areas of Montana and Saskatchewan that have had little winter this year.
A storm system rolling northeastward across the Intermountain West of the United States to end the week will strengthen as it swings past the northern Rockies. The storm can become quite dramatic over the region.

 

While the upcoming storm will lack bitterly cold air, it can produce whiteout conditions at times in snow and blowing snow. (Photos.com image)
Travel along portions of I-15, I-90 and I-94 could be hindered by heavy snow, low visibility and strong winds in the U.S. as well as highways 1, 11 and 16 in Canada.
The storm will tap a temperature contrast of warmth over the Great Plains of the U.S. and sufficiently cold air over the Canada Rockies. The result will be a storm with increasing wind and snow from central and northeastern Montana to southern and central Saskatchewan Friday night into Saturday.

While a shift in the storm track could alter the field of heavy snow, the Plains and Prairies area from Glasgow, Mont., to Regina and Saskatoon in Saskatchewan could be in the heart of the storm for a time with a windswept plastering of snow.

A narrow swath of a foot (30 centimeters) or more of snow is likely to streak northeastward from central Montana, across part of southern Saskatchewan and into west-central Manitoba.

However, the storm will put down substantial snow prior to this farther to the south and west over Montana and the northern Rockies in general through Friday.

Upslope areas in in western Montana and northwestern Wyoming can also pick up a foot of snow with much more in the high country. As the storm swings out to the northeast and strengthens, these areas will also notice a period of strong winds.
South and east of the storm track, high wind will feed the system over the Dakotas, portions of Minnesota and southern Manitoba. This area will also receive a bit of rain and perhaps a thunderstorm.

However, by Easter Sunday some snow and wind will streak eastward into southern Manitoba and the Winnipeg area.

High-Powered Snowstorm Aims for Montana, Saskatchewan

Wacky, Wild Spring: Week in Review

By Andy Mussoline, Meteorologist

Apr 6, 2012; 3:30 PM ET

Spring, typically a volatile time of the year across the United States, was in full effect this past week. Snow, rain, gusty winds, thunderstorms and tornadoes were all observed across the country, and here we take time to review some highlights.
TEXAS TORNADOES
A flurry of dangerous tornadoes were spawned as a chilly storm interacted with warm, humid air across the Dallas-Fort Worth area on Tuesday, April 3. In total, 14 tornadoes were confirmed in and around the city, with an EF-3 tornado the strongest of all confirmed. An EF-3 tornado can contain winds up to 165 mph.
The Red Cross reported over 1,100 homes were hit by the tornadoes, including over 300 homes destroyed.
This photo shows damage that occurred in Forney, Texas, from an EF-3 tornado that hit Tuesday. Courtesy: NWS.
Although homes and spirits have been damaged in the region, no one had lost their lives during the dangerous day.
One day before, Monday, nearly 100 reports of wind damage were recorded from far eastern Texas to northern Louisiana and central Mississippi from a nasty line of strong thunderstorms.
COLD WEST
The week started off tranquil in the Northwest with a high pressure system in place across the region. The quiet weather was short-lived as a cold front slammed into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. In wake of the front, chilly air and unsettled weather settled in for the balance of the workweek.
Seattle, Wash., was part of the area chilled this week, having below-normal temperatures since Tuesday and culminating in a chilly Thursday as temperatures managed to reach only 49 degrees. Portland, Ore., fell one short Thursday, reaching only 48 degrees. Normal highs are 57 and 60, respectively.
Snow covers daffodils as traffic passes by in the background in Denver after a spring storm swept over Colorado's Front Range communities on Tuesday, April 3, 2012. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
The chilly weather brought low snow levels down to 2,000 feet in the Cascades, as several inches accumulated across the mountains. More snow fell across the Intermountain West and Rockies. The storm that fueled the Texas tornadoes, also brought a few inches of snow to the Denver area.
Although the sun was shining across the Southwest, chilly northerly breezes hit the region as the cold storm traversed the Northwest.
SOUTHEAST RAIN
The same storm that produced numerous violent thunderstorms across Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley moved into the Southeast late in the week. Although reports of wind damage and hail were received across parts of the Southeast, beneficial rain also reached the region.
Dry ground conditions are being observed from North Carolina into Florida, with a more severe drought from southern South Carolina to southern Georgia and Florida.
 
Spectators leave Augusta National Golf Course after play was suspended due to inclement weather during the par 3 competition at the Masters golf tournament Wednesday, April 4, 2012, in Augusta, Ga. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
The most beneficial rain fell across South Carolina and northern Georgia where more than an inch was recorded in areas. Less fell across the more severe drought areas, but any rain will help at this point.

Wacky, Wild Spring: Week in Review

Chillier Weather Awaits the Northeast Next Week

AccuWeather.com Facebook fan Tony D. took this photo of snow covering flowers in Buffalo, N.Y., on March 30. While Buffalo should escape any snow next week, some higher elevations from West Virginia to New York could see a light dusting.

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist

Apr 6, 2012; 3:43 PM ET

After a spectacular Easter weekend weather-wise across the Northeast, Mother Nature may turn the calendar back a month with the new workweek.
Lower temperatures will begin to arrive Easter Monday in the wake of a cold front and look to stick around for a few days.
Combined with an area of low pressure lingering over southeastern Canada, it will be an unsettled period with plenty of clouds and showers at times as atmospheric disturbances swing through the region.
At higher elevations from the central Appalachians to New York, a few snowflakes could even mix in.
The chilly, damp weather could end up ruining outdoor plans for those taking a few extra days off after the holiday weekend.
While temperatures will be lower across the board throughout the Northeast, the cold will not be exceptional. However, this will be the first prolonged period of below-normal temperatures for many areas dating back several weeks.
The mercury will only top out in the 40s across a pocket of interior areas from the central Appalachians to upstate New York for Tuesday and Wednesday, which is as much as 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

Even temperatures in the bigger cities and coastal locations in the mid-Atlantic will barely manage to reach into the 50s compared to 60s over the weekend.
Combined with cloud cover and a fresh breeze, it will feel even cooler yet.
If this were the heart of winter, the atmospheric disturbances would actually paint swaths of snow to the coast. This time of year, any snow from these systems will tend to be more "elevation-driven," meaning it will be mainly confined to ridges and mountains where it will be colder.
The mountains of West Virginia; the Alleghenies and Poconos in Pennsylvania, as well as the Catskills and Adirondacks of New York, stand to see a few snow showers mix in with the rain both Tuesday and Wednesday.
A light accumulation is possible over some ridge and mountaintops, but will likely only last for a matter of hours thanks to the increasingly strong April sun.
While these lingering areas of low pressure are difficult to predict, it looks as though milder temperatures will begin to edge back into the region toward the end of the week as the calendar heads deeper into April.

Chillier Weather Awaits the Northeast Next Week

Weaker Tornadoes a Saving Grace for Many Near Dallas

Apr 6, 2012; 2:40 PM ET

 

Meteorologists tracked a sight they never want to see on Tuesday: rotating thunderstorms moving into an urban area.

A national audience watched in shock on April 3, 2012 as tornadoes ripped across the Dallas/Ft. Worth metro area. Many feared a repeat of the destructive and deadly tornadoes back on March 2nd in Kentucky and Indiana.

A month ago, an EF-4 tornado leveled houses and destroyed a local high school in Henryville, Ind. In a relatively rural area, these storms took a tremendous toll.

With tornadoes dropping from the sky near a major city with millions of residents, tension and fear ran high early Tuesday afternoon. Fortunately, there were no fatalities from these tornadoes.

However, the tornadoes did cause significant structural damage in some Dallas/Ft. Worth suburbs, such as Kenndale, Arlington, and Lancaster. East of Dallas, the strongest tornado of the day produced EF-3 damage in Forney. Many watched, on live TV, as truck trailers were sent flying through the air near I-20 south of Dallas.

The common denominator amidst all this chaos? Minimal injuries and no lives lost.

"Luck always plays a role but that fact is the timely watch and warnings from the NWS, from the local television and radio meteorologists, and from AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions to our commercial clients are largely responsible for this happy outcome," Mike Smith, CEO of WeatherData said.

Great warnings were not the only reason for the positive outcome.

"These were not strong tornadoes," stated Henry Margusity, AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist.

While intense in their own right, these storms did not spawn the massive, grinding tornadoes that ripped through Indiana and Kentucky in early March. And they were nothing compared to the monster tornadoes that destroyed Tuscaloosa and Joplin last year.

RELATED: Infographic: The Enhanced Fujita Scale.

The April 3, 2012 tornadoes were survivable, especially with basic knowledge on what to do when a storm bears down on your house.

As you can see from the photograph comparison below, there is a huge difference between EF-2 and EF-4 damage. The photograph on the left shows damage associated with the EF-2 tornado that moved through the Arlington suburbs on Tuesday. Roofs have been ripped off houses, some walls have fallen in, but clearly most rooms in these houses remain intact. As long as residents were away from windows and exterior walls, they remained fairly safe from the estimated 135 mph winds outside.

The image on the right shows what was a home in Henryville, Ind., after an EF-4 tornado blasted through the town last month. Every wall has collapsed, including the interior rooms that are recommended for shelter during an emergency situation. Most of the building has been has been scattered like toothpicks across the yard and field surrounding the house.

The above images compare structural damage from the Arlington EF-2 tornado and the Henryville EF-4. Both photos are from National Weather Service damage surveys.

What Should We Take From This?
Every tornado is dangerous, and poses a potentially life-threatening risk to anyone in its path. But you stand a much better chance of survival if the tornado is weaker. Warnings, sirens and news alerts are all excellent ways of staying informed about where a tornado is and what to do if you will be affected, but sometimes, they can only do so much.

EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes can destroy even the strongest of buildings, and unfortunately the safest location someone can go to sometimes may not be safe enough.

After the damage is cleared and life is restored to normal for folks in the Dallas area, the most memorable story from April 3, 2012 could be a single word: zero. Zero fatalities in a situation that could have been far worse for millions in the path of mother nature's fury.

By Mike Charnick, Meteorologist

Weaker Tornadoes a Saving Grace for Many Near Dallas

AccuWeather.com - Climate Change | Polar Regions taking the Brunt of Climate Change

Apr 4, 2012; 3:36 PM ET

Climate change is changing the face of the Arctic and Antarctic faster than expected, according to a report just released by the U.S. National Research Council.

The report took into account a synthesis of reports from thousands of scientists from 60 countries. The report is the first in over 50 years to offer a benchmark of conditions from the International Polar year (2007-2008).

Worldwide, many oceanographers, meteorologists, geologists, climate scientists, ecologists and other researchers contributed to the report.

Some of the significant findings from the report......

1. A 27% loss of sea ice in a single year (2007).

2. Ice sheets around the poles are showing evidence of serious retreat and a this is expected to accelerate.

3. Seven of twelve Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves are either gone or are in severe decline.

4. Microscopic phytoplankton, which are at the base of the food chain have been found in North Atlantic waters where they have not been in 800,000 years. This is causing commercial and other fish species to migrate farther northward with the fishermen following.

5. Found a link that when the west Antarctic ice sheet collapses the Arctic warms up.

"This type of information makes the report all the more important because the changes we expect to see in the next few decades are going to be incredible, said Julie Brigham-Grette, co-chaired the NRC report.

Key excerpt from the University of Massachusetts news office release......

Brigham-Grette says, "I think if you look at everything we've learned, we see the polar regions are much more vulnerable to global warming than we thought. Global biological and oceanographic systems are responding faster than we ever expected. Earth has gone through this before, and some past warm cycles have been extreme, but we as humans have never seen anything like it in our 10,000 years on the planet. It's extraordinary."

AccuWeather.com - Climate Change | Polar Regions taking the Brunt of Climate Change

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Snowfall Forecast Map

Apr 4, 2012; 2:41 PM ET

Alberta/SE BC snow

As of Wednesday afternoon the center of the storm was over extreme northeastern Idaho with snow coming down over extreme eastern Washington and northern Idaho.

Most of the accumulating snow in western and northern Alberta will fall tonight and early Thursday morning.

It appears that snowfall amounts will quickly diminish as you go east of Calgary, with the highest totals just west and northwest of Calgary.

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Long range thoughts.........

Looks like a fairly chilly pattern setting up across eastern Canada and the Northeast/Great Lakes of the U.S. the first half of next week as upstream blocking forces a large trough of cold air aloft to set up shop across the region with plenty of afternoon clouds and scattered showers.

Beyond that, the latest ECMWF weekly long range model shows slightly above normal temperatures across most of southern Canada east of the Rockies through the end of the month, while slightly colder than normal conditions cover northern Canada.

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Updated Snowfall Forecast Map

AccuWeather.com - Ken Clark | Weather Calming Down for the Weekend

Apr 4, 2012; 12:13 PM ET

The cold trough that is centered in the Northwest now slowly moves east after tomorrow. Between now and then additional rain and snow showers are likely with even thunder in spots during the afternoon and evening hours. Snow level s will be low between 1,000 and 2,000 feet. Where thunderstorms do occur expect small hail. Friday is still somewhat unsettled though not quite as much as the next 24 hours. There should be fewer showers west of the Cascades but otherwise scattered showers of rain and snow continue to be likely.

Farther south the cold trough will bring below normal temperatures through Friday in all of California along with some gusty winds. The strongest winds are likely on the Central Coast, the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and through north-south passes Santa Barbara through Los Angeles County. There are likely to be a few snow showers tomorrow over the northern Sierra but these will cause no travel problems or much accumulation.

Over the Holiday Weekend the trough moves east. Meanwhile a ridge pushes up from the south across the Great Basin as another cold trough drops south through the east-central Pacific. The trough develops offshore far enough to keep most of its precipitation over water Saturday and if there are a couple of showers Sunday they will be on parts of the Oregon and extreme northwest California coast. Otherwise expect temperatures to modify with the biggest warming coming for central and southern California and Arizona with above normal temperatures taking over and sunshine much of the time.

Eventually that Pacific trough moves east. Any showers early next week will confined to parts of western Oregon and Washington but then could spread south and east Wednesday and Thursday. It does look likely that much of California could eventually get some rain and snow by Wednesday night and Thursday.

AccuWeather.com - Ken Clark | Weather Calming Down for the Weekend

AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Midweek Highlights Heading Toward Easter

Apr 4, 2012; 10:10 AM ET

Wednesday, 11:30 A.M.

Another day with tight time deadlines, but there's a lot to touch on, so I'll do it in highlight form today!

1) Devastating tornado outbreak from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into northeast Texas Tuesday. Wow. Tractor trailers flying through the air? Unreal. I head one national forecast mention a tornado risk yesterday, but emphasized it was 'minor'. That didn't work out so well. Kind of like some of my forecasts last month that were woefully underdone on the warmth. But I digress!

That system is still capable of producing severe weather. Yet if you if you look at the visible satellite, and combine it radar images, it would appear that the strongest thunderstorms are now out over the Gulf of Mexico:

Still, the air mass across the South is warm and it is certainly humid, and as you can see from that same image, there's a good deal of sunshine, so be on the lookout for more strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight:

2) Cool invasion across the Northeast. A cold front will slip through the region this afternoon with no fanfare. Behind it, high pressure up over Hudson Bay will shift southeastward. With a clear sky and light winds, that's a recipe for frost in a lot of places from parts of the Ohio Valley into the interior mid-Atlantic and New England. The coldest night will be Thursday night and Friday morning. It won't have as far to fall, the high will be overhead, and the air will be bone dry. There could be a hard freeze as well, which makes some fruit growers nervous. I talked to one of our local growers Monday, and he said his peaches have suffered some damage, and a little to the apple crop, but if it gets below 25 for more than an hour or two, they could lose more buds. Not good. It'll get real close tomorrow night where he is. At least it will turn milder again over the Easter weekend with lots of sunshine.

3) Dry pattern. The lack of the spring snowmelt would have been okay had the moistness of the winter pattern continued into March and now early April. It didn't. Now the top soil is quickly drying out, and there's no rain for five days from Chicago to Boston. With the underbrush drying out as well, the danger of brush fires will steadily increase. Any time the winds whip up, it will increase more in these dry air masses. Just ask the folks in Jefferson County, Colorado, about that.

Going into next week, I don't necessarily see storminess returning, either. With the upper-level trough axis likely to be along and then off the East Coast Tuesday to Thursday, the chance of any meaningful storm is pretty low, especially west of the I-95 corridor.

4) Warming in the West. It has been a long time in coming, but finally the upper level ridge will get far enough west that even the West Coast states will have some semblance of nice spring weather. Look at the projected temperature anomalies for Monday:

Granted, that's not saying it will reach the 70s in Seattle or Portland, but 60s with some sunshine would be nice, and 70s are likely in Boise for a couple of days, maybe 80 in Salt Lake City. It should be pretty nice and getting warmer over the Easter weekend. Now, it may not last if this is right:

If the PNA really does go negative again, which the modeling supports, then another deep upper-level trough will slam the West Coast later next week and bring more chilly air, clouds, rain and mountain snows to parts of Washington, Oregon, and California.

AccuWeather.com - Joe Lundberg | Midweek Highlights Heading Toward Easter

How Rare Were the Dallas Tornadoes on April 3, 2012?

AccuWeather.com Meteorologists gathered around Henry Margusity's desk, looking at radar and webcams of tornadoes touching down on the I-35 Parkerville webcam near Dallas.

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 6:00 PM ET

AccuWeather.com meteorologists watched in horror as two tornadoes were on the ground simultaneously, one hitting the highly populated Fort Worth area and the other hitting the Dallas area.
"I have never seen two tornadoes hit two large metropolitan areas at the same time before," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity said, based on his 29 years of forecasting experience.
While it is quite rare for tornadoes to hit two major metropolitan areas at the same time, people have been asking: how rare is it for a tornado to hit Dallas?
Simply put, it is rather rare for tornadoes to hit cities, since cities cover such a small area of the country. However, the number of times that twisters have touched down in Dallas and Tarrant counties may be surprising.
RELATED:
Terrifying Videos, Photos of Tornadoes Near Dallas
Horrific Dallas Tornado Damage Photos From NWS Survey Teams
"Over the last 60 years (since 1952), a total of 172 tornadoes have been reported in either Tarrant or Dallas counties, Texas. Of these, 42 have been rated at least an EF2 (wind speeds over 110 mph). The strongest, rated EF4, hit Dallas on April 25, 1994, killing three people and injuring 48. Neither county has ever reported an EF5-rated tornado," according to the National Weather Service. "There have been five killer tornadoes that have claimed 17 lives over the past 60 years in these two counties."
April is the most likely month for a tornado strike in Dallas, and May is the second most likely month.
Tornadoes by Month in Dallas and Tarrant Counties, TX

Month	Total Tornadoes	EF2-3-4
Jan	8	2
Feb	3	0
Mar	12	3
Apr	47	14
May	39	11
Jun	10	2
Jul	6	0
Aug	2	1
Sep	12	4
Oct	16	2
Nov	5	1
Dec	12	2
Total	172	42

*Information from the NWS (tornado numbers are since 1952)
Most Likely Cities in the U.S. to Get Hit By Tornadoes
Based on historical records, Dallas is not the most likely cities to get hit by tornadoes in the U.S., but it is high on the list.
"The most likely place to get hit by a tornado, based on the historical records of major cities is probably Oklahoma City," according to Harold Brooks, research meteorologist at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla. "That's near the center location of the most likely place to have tornadoes to occur."
"There's a long history of tornadoes occurring in the metropolitan area. You need to look at some other places that are probably relatively close to that: Kansas City, Dallas, perhaps going east toward Jackson and Birmingham, Miss., are probably relatively close to those records," added Brooks.
The region of the country referred to as "Tornado Alley" extends from Texas through the Plains, where tornadoes most frequently develop in the U.S. This is due to the fact that dry air sweeps eastward from the Rockies, while deep moisture surges out of the Gulf of Mexico. The clashing of air masses becomes the battleground for severe weather.
A secondary zone noted for frequent tornado touchdowns is "Dixie Alley," which stretches from the Gulf states to the Ohio Valley. The proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and thus the ability to tap into Gulf moisture helps severe thunderstorms breed in "Dixie Alley."
"If we look historically, probably the city that has the biggest track record of having major tornadoes is St. Louis. The 1896 tornado, the 1927 tornadoes are adjusted for wealth of the country, are the two most damaging tornadoes in U.S. history. And then after that there's still three other violent tornadoes in 1959 and in 1967 and then in 2011. So St. Louis has the longest history of having those tornadoes even though they don't have perhaps as great of a chance of happening," said Brooks.

How Rare Were the Dallas Tornadoes on April 3, 2012?

Strong Storms Move into Deep South, Tennessee Valley

By Matt Alto, Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 5:58 PM ET

The slow-moving storm system which brought severe weather from western Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley the past two days will gain some forward momentum today as it slides eastward through the southern Plains.
Once again, warm and moist air surging northward out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the system will help fuel the storms.
For the third consecutive day, this system will bring more strong and damaging storms to sections of the South today and tonight.

Similar to both Monday and Tuesday, the primary threats with these storms will be damaging winds and large hail. While the overall threat for tornadoes is low, a few isolated twisters are not out of the realm of possibilities.
Hail the size of golf balls can be expected. Hail of this magnitude can cause some minor damage to automobiles.
The strongest storms will be capable of producing straight-line wind gusts over 70 mph which is more than enough to cause damage to trees and power lines.
Many of these storms will be capable of producing a large amount of rain in a short period of time, leading to flash and urban flooding. Locations where thunderstorms are persistent will be especially prone to flooding.
The area at risk today extends from the lower Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee and lower Ohio valleys.
Cities that will be impacted by these storms today include Baton Rouge and New Orleans, La., Jackson, Miss., and Nashville, Tenn.
This afternoon and evening, the threat will be in Mississippi and portions of eastern Tennessee as a line of intense storms slowly maneuvers to the east.

The threat for severe weather is expected to continue on Thursday and Friday as the storms continue their slow trek to the Southeast coast.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to interrupt the first and second rounds at the Masters in Augusta, Ga.
Keep checking back with AccuWeather.com throughout the coming days as the severe weather unfolds.

Strong Storms Move into Deep South, Tennessee Valley

Preliminary Ratings of Dallas Tornadoes

By Matt Alto, Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 5:50 PM ET

One day after tornadic thunderstorms barreled through the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, assessment and cleanup of the destruction has begun across many of the communities in the region.
The storms provided a destructive reminder that the region is in its peak severe weather season. April is statistically the worst of the severe weather season that spans from March to June across North Texas.
 
Preliminary rating of the Forney tornado that struck April 3, 2012.
**Preliminary ratings of tornadoes from the Fort Worth NWS office: EF-3 damage with estimated winds of 150 mph was found with the tornado that hit Forney and Rockwall Counties. EF-2 tornado damage with estimated winds of 130 mph was found in Lancaster, Dallas and Hutchins. EF-2 damage was found in Kennedale and Arlington.**
RELATED:
Terrifying Videos, Photos of Tornadoes Near Dallas
Dallas Tornado Damage Photos From NWS Survey Teams
As the tornadoes ripped through the Dallas area, they peeled roofs off homes, sent tractor trailers flying into the air and left thousands of people without power.
According to the electric provider ONCOR, approximately 10,600 customers are without power across North Texas as of early Wednesday morning from the outbreak of twisters.
The NWS Survey Team posted this damage photo on the NWS Fort Worth Facebook Page. This is a photo of EF-3 damage near the intersection of Ridgecrest and FM-548 in Forney, Texas. All of the walls of a single family residence collapsed. This is tornado damage from the Forney Tornado that occurred Monday afternoon April 3, 2012.
Despite the strong and powerful nature of the storms, no fatalities or serious injuries were being reported at this time. However, several people were treated for minor injuries.
Meanwhile, hundreds of flights were canceled at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport due to the storms, while many incoming flights had to be diverted to other nearby airports.
American Airlines canceled more than 450 arriving and departing flights at their Dallas-Fort Worth hub.
According to the Associated Press, Dallas-Fort Worth Airport spokesman David Magana said that more than 110 planes were damaged by hail as the storms moved through. It wasn't clear how many belonged to American Airlines, but American and American Eagle had pulled 101 planes out of service for hail-damage inspections.
Flights were also canceled at Dallas Love Field, which is a major hub for Southwest Airlines. Southwest canceled more than 45 flights in and out of the airport.
Storm surveys are planned for Wednesday. Three teams from the National Weather Service will conduct these surveys across North Texas. Preliminary information regarding the damage assessments will be released once the surveys are complete.
While the exact number of tornadoes which touched down in North Texas Wednesday is not known at this time, an estimated 8 to 13 twisters may have crossed parts of the Lone Star State.

Preliminary Ratings of Dallas Tornadoes

Snow for Mountains of the West into Thursday

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 5:45 PM ET

As a large pool of moisture streams in from the Pacific Ocean, snow will fall over the mountains of the West into Thursday.
Most of the snow will fall over the Bitterroot and Clearwater ranges in central and northern Idaho to northwestern Montana.
There can be a slushy accumulation over Lookout Pass along I-90 tonight as snow levels fall to near the valley floors of some locations. Several inches of snow are forecast to fall over the high country.
Snow levels will then rise during the midday and afternoon hours Thursday.

Valley/low-elevation rain showers and mountain snow showers will extend from western Washington to northern California, eastward to western Montana and northwestern Wyoming into Thursday.

Snow for Mountains of the West into Thursday

Wayward Polar Bear Shot in Newfoundland

Photos.com/Jupiterimages

By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 4:56 PM ET

A polar bear that roamed ashore was shot after putting a scare in a Newfoundland community on Tuesday.
It was the second polar bear shot on Newfoundland this spring, the CBC News website said.
The bear was witnessed trying to enter a lighthouse on Puffin Island, then was driven away when a worker opened a window and "made a lot of noise."
However, the bear next moved quickly in the direction of a nearby community, where a school was letting out, the CBC said. It was at this time that provincial wildlife officials gave the Mounted Police permission to shoot the bear, after which it died.
The bear apparently came ashore from sea ice, where it would have been hunting seals, according to the CBC.
There have been a number of bear sitings in the area recently.
Bears also came ashore last week in northern Newfoundland, where one was shot after killing some livestock and trying to break into homes.
After a cold winter, extensive sea ice off Labrador has spread southward into Newfoundland waters. A wildlife scientist said the bears are hunting seals on the ice, and that the ice has blown close to the shore this year.

Wayward Polar Bear Shot in Newfoundland

Check Out AccuWeather.com's 25-Day Forecast

By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 4:55 PM ET

AccuWeather.com released a 25-Day Forecast that can help users make informed decisions about long-term plans. The AccuWeather 25-Day Forecast shows you the trends in temperature, precipitation and more, along with the forecast for a particular day.
For each day in the 25-day Forecast, you can see the forecasted high and low temperatures, the AccuWeather RealFeel® temperature, sky conditions and chance of precipitation, wind speed and direction, rain, snow and ice amounts, thunderstorm probability, cloud cover and UV index.

Ways to Use the 25-Day Forecast
The site also offers almanac data such as sun and moon rise and set times, and historical high and low temperature information for that date, including the normal, the record, and the reading for one year ago.
The forecast provides a graph at the bottom of the detailed 25-Day Forecast. It has a plot of the average high and average low compared to AccuWeather.com's forecast high and low for each date. The graph provides a a lot of helpful information that can be processed very quickly with its simple format.

The detailed forecast gives you critical weather information that will help you make long-range decisions based on how the weather is likely to impact your plans.
When planning travel and other business or leisure activities, it offers information to assist your decision-making. For events and activities that are already scheduled - trips, family outings, weddings, vacations, football games and the like - it gives you the best available advance guidance on what to plan in terms of weather impact.

Check Out AccuWeather.com's 25-Day Forecast

A Wet Round One Likely at the 2012 Masters

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 10:10 AM ET

There is the possibility of wet weather conditions on multiple days this week at Augusta. This graphic shows the forecast for round 1 scheduled for Thursday.

Mother Nature may intervene with early rounds at the 2012 Masters Tournament in Augusta, Ga.
Through Friday, several weather systems will drift slowly across the South with the chance for some showers and storms. The wettest weather is likely on Thursday, following the Par 3 Contest was cancelled on Wednesday evening due to heavy rain.
The wettest day of the week will coincide with round 1 scheduled for Thursday. There is the risk of multiple showers and/or thunderstorms and hence the greatest risk for disruptions.
The storms during Thursday could be locally severe. They will be produced by the same storm system that delivered tornadoes in the Dallas/Fort Worth area during Tuesday afternoon and the torrential rain and frequent lightning in the New Orleans area this morning.

The best chance of wet weather on Friday is during the morning hours. A push of dry air is forecast to begin during the afternoon, chasing away low clouds and areas of fog rain and drizzle.
The weather looks to be mostly sunny and delightful Saturday and Easter Sunday with highs in the 70s.
While thunderstorms are the last thing golfing interests want, you can't blame folks in the South for wanting rain.

Much of central and southern Georgia, southeastern Alabama, northern Florida and portions of South Carolina are experiencing extreme (red) to exceptional (dark red) drought conditions. Conditions over a much larger area of the southern Atlantic Seaboard range from abnormally dry (yellow) to moderate (light orange) drought.
Last year's Masters was quite warm, but just fell short of the warmest on record. 1978 holds the crown for the warmest Masters with an average daily high of 86.8 degrees.

The 2011 Masters brought an average daily high of 86.3 degrees. April 9, 2011 brought record heat for the date with a high of 91 degrees. The hottest day ever for the tournament was April 7, 1967 when the temperature reached 92 degrees.
A powerful thunderstorm hit the course during the middle of Tuesday night, between 12:00 midnight and 1:00 a.m., April 4, 2012. Strong winds downed a few trees, while over an inch of rain fell in an hour's time, leading to flash flooding.
This story was originally published on Monday, April 2, 2012 and has been updated.

A Wet Round One Likely at the 2012 Masters

Summer to Snow in Scotland in UK Storm

By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist

Apr 4, 2012; 9:41 AM ET

Snow has covered the landscape in the northeastern United Kingdom within one week after experiencing summery, record warmth.
This week, snowfall to at least 20 cm (8 inches) blanketed hilly areas of eastern Scotland through northern England, cutting power and disrupting travel on some roads, according to multiple reports.
Aboyne, Scotland, had a 15-cm (6-inch) fall of snow as of Tuesday, Mark Vogan said in his blog. Only one week earlier, Aboyne tipped 23.6 degrees C (74.5 F), breaking the all-time highest March temperature for Scotland.
Even in July, high temperatures above 20 degrees C (68 F) would be the exception this far north.
Aviemore, Scotland, had early week snowfall of about 20 cm, weather data available to AccuWeather.com meteorologists showed. The week before, high temperatures above 20 degrees C were registered here.
Meanwhile, the wintry storm shifted southward over England Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving cold, soaking rain and wet snow, all of it whipped by high winds.
At least 50,000 homes and business were without power after gales and ice downed power lines, the BBC said on Wednesday. Outages were concentrated in Durham, North Yorkshire and North Derbyshire.
The storm covered the hills in snow. Travel on at least one area highway, the A66, was interrupted after a lorry jackknifed, according to a report on the BBC News. The A66 cuts east to west across the Pennines uplands.
Police in Durham said that snow drifts were up to 7 feet deep in places along another highway, the A68, where up to 40 vehicles were stranded, the report said.
Farther south, at least two Peak District passes between Sheffield and Manchester were shut by snow.
An upside to the storm was that it dropped needed rain on some drought-hit areas of eastern England.

Summer to Snow in Scotland in UK Storm

'CATASTROPHIC': Experimental Tornado Warnings to be Explicit

Ken Weathers tweeted out this damage pic from Etowah (McMinn Co.) by Josh Ault

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Apr 3, 2012; 6:59 PM ET

The National Weather Service implemented an experimental tornado warning policy change to offices that serve Missouri and Kansas on Monday, April 2, 2012.
The new policy will apply three distinct sub-categories of tornado warnings, as follows: an "ordinary" tornado warning, a warning of a "particularly dangerous situation," stating that a tornado has been sighted on the ground and a "Tornado Emergency", which will explicitly state that there is a tornado on the ground and will include words such as "mass devastation and "un-survivable" when necessary.
The warnings have been implemented to effectively communicate the severity of an approaching storm, and to encourage more people to take heed.
The policy is designed to help mitigate the frequency of which people ignore alarms for impending storms, especially people living in mobile homes who may need to travel to seek suitable shelter.
The May 22, 2011 devastation of Joplin, Mo., that killed 185 people and injured over a thousand residents is being used as the prime example by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
According to a NOAA survey report, "the perceived frequency of siren activation in Joplin led most survey participants to become desensitized or complacent to this method of warning."
In this report, the NOAA encourages that the National Weather Service "explore evolving the warning system to better support effective decision making."
"The majority of Joplin residents did not take protective action until processing additional credible confirmation of the threat and its magnitude from a non-routine, extraordinary risk trigger," the report explains.
A sample of the new warning released by the NWS reads:
"THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.
SOURCE... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO
IMPACT... COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL-BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATIONS IS HIGHLY LIKELY, MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS. TORNADO MAY BE UN-SURVIVABLE IF SHELTER IS NOT SOUGHT BELOW GROUND LEVEL."
The experimental policy change, which will run through late fall, will be analyzed by a North Carolina research team to determine if it is suitable for expansion to other parts of the country.

'CATASTROPHIC': Experimental Tornado Warnings to be Explicit

The Blast that Changed World Weather

Crater of El Chichon Volcano, located in southeastern Mexico. (Smithsonian National Museum Global Volcanism Program)

By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist

Apr 3, 2012; 12:51 PM ET

It has been 30 years since El Chichon volcano burst to life in the spring of 1982, unleashing upon the Mexico countryside one of the biggest volcanic eruptions of the 20th century.
In the wake of two powerful blasts, at least 1,900 people were dead and millions of dollars of crops were in ruin.
Even more, the eruption had a measurable impact upon the atmosphere and weather patterns worldwide.
In the lead-up to the catastrophic blasts of March 28 and April 4, increasing earthquakes around long-dormant El Chichon warned of the volcano's awaking, according to Erik Klemetti, writing in his Eruptions blog.
The last major eruption of El Chichon apparently happened in 1350.
On March 28, a 3-hour eruption shot a column of ash 27 km (about 17 miles -- literally stratospheric) above El Chichon. In so doing, the volcano spewed hundreds of millions of tons of ash.
But the worst was still to come and on April 4, El Chichon uncorked an even greater, more voluminous blast, with its ash cloud lofting into the stratosphere, 29 km high.
This eruption sent fiery 360-km/hr (200-mph) pyroclastic flows as many as 8 km (5 miles) from the crater, according to Klemetti. As many as 1,000 people were killed when the pyroclastic flow destroyed the village of Francisco Leon.
But it was apparently the remarkable chemistry of the ash clouds, being abnormally rich in sulfur dioxide, allowed El Chichon to have such a bearing upon weather and climate.
As many as 10 million tons of sulphur dioxide were blasted into the atmosphere, Klemetti said. This was roughly seven times that of Mount St. Helens in 1981, even though eruptive ash output was comparable in volume to the Mexico eruption.
The sulphur dioxide give rise to clouds of particulate matter that were found to have circled the globe within weeks. Although these warmed the stratosphere, the northern hemisphere cooled by 0.4 to 0.6 degrees C (up to 1 degree F), apparently owing to the reflection of solar energy.
One of the strongest bouts of "El Nino" ever recorded began within weeks of the eruption, leading to widespread disruption of weather patterns into 1983. Some scientists have drawn a direct link between the eruption-induced cooling and the El Nino warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
A "silver lining" to the catastrophic eruption was the many colorful sunsets that were witnessed around the world.
El Chichon volcano is located in the southeastern Mexico state of Chiapas, about 80 km (50 miles) south-southwest of Villahermosa.

The Blast that Changed World Weather

Japan Storm Likened to Typhoon

Powerful storm centered over the Sea of Japan, lashing Japan with high winds and torrential rains on Tuesday, April 3, 2012. (Japan Meteorological Agency)

By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist

Apr 3, 2012; 8:11 AM ET

Winds of typhoon strength have swept over parts of Japan, making for travel chaos, reports said on Tuesday.
One person has died and tens of thousands have been stranded, the AFP said.
At least 97 people suffered storm-related injury, according to NHK.
Winds were clocked to 150 km/h, or 93 mph, in western Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) indicated.
Weather warnings and advisories spanned Japan's entire mainland, the JMA website showed. Advised threats included high winds, thunderstorms, heavy rain, flooding and high winds.
The JMA even warned of the potential for tornadoes.
The extreme weather lead Japan Airlines to cancel 230 domestic flights, along with seven Asia-bound flights, affecting 31,600 passengers, AFP said.
Another carrier, All Nippon, scrubbed 320 domestic flights, affecting another 37,700 passengers.
Some commuter trains had to be suspended.
Winds at the Tokyo Haneda International Airport gusted to 126 km/h, or 78 mph, weather data accessed by AccuWeather.com showed. Winds of 80 to 110 (about 50 to 70 mph) were widespread on weather.
The severe weather was whipped up by an abnormally strong storm centered over the Sea of Japan. The storm's trailing cold front, which dragged eastward over western and central Japan Tuesday, was a focus for high winds and torrential rain, forecasters said.
A JMA forecaster compared this storm to the core of a typhoon, but with a long duration of high winds in any given location, owing to its sheer size. "Winds as strong as this are very rare," the spokesman said.
The brunt of the storm will shift to northern Japan on Wednesday, forecasters said. Severe winds and high waves will target the region, as will heavy rain and the potential for flooding.

Japan Storm Likened to Typhoon

Southern Plains, Ohio Valley at Risk for Strong Storms

A thunderstorm on an early spring day. Photo courtesy of Photos.com.

By Matt Alto, Meteorologist

Apr 3, 2012; 6:20 AM ET

One day after strong and damaging storms erupted across the portions of the lower Mississippi Valley as well as western Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas, more severe weather is expected today.
A slow-moving, cut-off low centered over northern New Mexico will once again be the culprit for the severe storms. This low will be slow to inch its way towards the southern Plains by Wednesday morning.
In a setup more typical of late spring or early summer, unusually warm and moist air will continue to surge northward across the southern Plains, the Tennessee and Ohio valleys today and act as the fuel for these storms.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are concerned about two separate areas of severe weather today.
Southern Plains
With the peak of the severe weather season across the southern Plains occurring during the month of April, it comes as no surprise that the region is under the risk for severe storms today.
Similar to Monday evening's storms that crawled through the Texas Panhandle as well as western Oklahoma and Kansas, the primary threat with these storms will be hail.
Some of the hail will be very large, in some instances greater than 1 inch in diameter. Hail of this magnitude can cause damage to automobiles, rooftops and even vegetation.

Strong and potentially damaging winds will also be associated with these storms today. Gusts with the strongest storms are likely to exceed 60 mph, which is strong enough the knock down tree limbs.
A few isolated tornadoes will be possible as well with the strongest storms.
The severe storms across the southern Plains are most likely during the afternoon and evening hours as a line of nasty storms slowly progress towards the east.
Cities that will be at risk include Tulsa and Oklahoma City, Okla., as well as Dallas, San Antonio and Tyler, Texas.
The severe threat is expected to continue into early Wednesday morning as the line of storms pushes eastward into Houston, Texas, Shreveport, La., and Fort Smith, Ark., as well as southern Missouri.
Ohio Valley
The vast majority of the day will turn out very warm and dry across the Ohio Valley as a warm front lifts north of the region.
The heating of the ground throughout the day along with a surge of moisture behind the warm front will enable showers and thunderstorms to develop late this evening and into tonight.

It is likely that a strong line of storms will ride along the warm front, developing across southern Illinois late this evening before tracking towards to the southeast tonight.
While the threat for severe storms will not be as high in the southern Plains, these storms will be more than capable of producing damaging winds and hail.

Southern Plains, Ohio Valley at Risk for Strong Storms