AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Active Week of Severe Weather. Some Snow in the Northeast
AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Two Snow Shots in the Northeast. Hail Storms Ohio Valley
Apr 9, 2012; 8:17 AM ET
Comments
1. The maps below show the severe weather for the week. This is going to an active week for severe weather with impacts being mainly wind and hail, but as the western trough comes out by midweek, we may have to be concerned about tornadoes in Kansas and Oklahoma.
2. The Northeast is going to be chilly for a few days, and with that, snow showers will hit the higher elevations and even some the valley locations. Snowfall over the higher elevations will be 1-3 inches, especially across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
3. This is probably the last shot of cold weather for the Northeast in regards to the departure from normal. The operational models seem to indicate that the cold shot is the last one and that we are going into a milder weather pattern, not exactly record warmth like we saw in March.
AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Two Snow Shots in the Northeast. Hail Storms Ohio Valley
Mar 30, 2012; 8:00 AM ET
I don't have a lot of time today because we are saying goodbye to my Ken Reeves this afternoon. I think the images say for themselves what is going to happen the next couple of days. Just watch the storms in the Ohio Valley, as they could produce big hail today.
Thanks again to everyone for the support this week during this difficult time here at AccuWeather.
Number of Tornadoes Running High So Far This Year
Tornado in Pekin, Ind., on Friday, March 2, 2012, by Emily Naugle Gibson.
By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Mar 28, 2012; 4:16 PM ET
There have been more tornadoes so far this year compared to the same time period during the extremely active 2011.
According to graphs provided by the Storm Prediction Center, there were 379 preliminary tornado reports through March 25 in 2012. Compared to past years, this is a very busy start to the severe weather and tornado season.
There was a total of 154 tornadoes from January through March of 2011. The three-year average number of tornadoes in January, February and March add up to 124.
The only other recent year where the number of tornadoes surpassed this year was in 2008, when 491 tornadoes touched down through March 25.
The March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak was the biggest of 2012 with 132 tornado reports and at least 61 confirmed tornadoes so far. At least 39 people were killed by the dangerous tornadoes that leveled entire towns like Marysville and Henryville, Ind.
SEE ALSO:
Photos of Horrific Damage From March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak
Science Behind the March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak
Rare March tornadoes have touched down as far north as southeastern Michigan this year.
Why Has 2012 Started Out So Volatile?
The above-normal warmth of the Gulf of Mexico is a big factor in the large number of tornadoes so early this year.
"Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico did not cool off this winter without cold air masses reaching the Deep South," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
The warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico mean any time the flow switches out of the south, warm and humid air is drawn into the U.S.
Warm, moist air are key ingredients for thunderstorms that are strong enough to spawn tornadoes.
"Ground temperatures are also warmer than normal... This is one of very few years of recent, where the ground was not frozen across the Ohio Valley," Kottlowski explained. When the ground is cold or frozen it creates an inversion, which means temperatures rise with rising altitude. An inversion creates a stable atmosphere and can prevent thunderstorms from forming or allow only higher-based thunderstorms to develop.
"Lower-based thunderstorms create much more opportunity for tornadoes," Kottlowski added.
Will 2012 Remain Active with Tornadoes?
The active severe weather has quieted down a bit over the past couple of weeks, but more active severe weather is anticipated. In fact, another peak in severe weather is anticipated later this spring.
"Severe weather will get more active by the middle of April," according to Jack Boston, AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist and long-range forecaster.
"The pattern will get more progressive," Boston said, meaning more storms will cross the country.
"April is one of the more volatile months," Kottlowski weighed in. However, he cautioned that "unless we see another cold air mass come down from the north, severe weather could occur at any time this season."
There were 379 preliminary tornadoes reports from Jan. 1-March 25, 2012. That is well above the average number of tornadoes from 2005-2011 during the same time period. Graph from the Storm Prediction Center.
Plot of the annual running total of U.S. tornadoes. The only year plotted in which the number of tornadoes surpassed the number Jan. 1-March 25, 2012, during the same time period, was in 2008 when there was 491 tornadoes. Graph from the Storm Prediction Center.
Tornado in Pekin, Ind., on Friday, March 2, 2012, by Emily Naugle Gibson.By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Mar 28, 2012; 4:16 PM ET
There have been more tornadoes so far this year compared to the same time period during the extremely active 2011.According to graphs provided by the Storm Prediction Center, there were 379 preliminary tornado reports through March 25 in 2012. Compared to past years, this is a very busy start to the severe weather and tornado season.
There was a total of 154 tornadoes from January through March of 2011. The three-year average number of tornadoes in January, February and March add up to 124.
The only other recent year where the number of tornadoes surpassed this year was in 2008, when 491 tornadoes touched down through March 25.
The March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak was the biggest of 2012 with 132 tornado reports and at least 61 confirmed tornadoes so far. At least 39 people were killed by the dangerous tornadoes that leveled entire towns like Marysville and Henryville, Ind.
SEE ALSO:
Photos of Horrific Damage From March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak
Science Behind the March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak
Rare March tornadoes have touched down as far north as southeastern Michigan this year.
Why Has 2012 Started Out So Volatile?
The above-normal warmth of the Gulf of Mexico is a big factor in the large number of tornadoes so early this year.
"Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico did not cool off this winter without cold air masses reaching the Deep South," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.
The warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico mean any time the flow switches out of the south, warm and humid air is drawn into the U.S.
Warm, moist air are key ingredients for thunderstorms that are strong enough to spawn tornadoes.
"Ground temperatures are also warmer than normal... This is one of very few years of recent, where the ground was not frozen across the Ohio Valley," Kottlowski explained. When the ground is cold or frozen it creates an inversion, which means temperatures rise with rising altitude. An inversion creates a stable atmosphere and can prevent thunderstorms from forming or allow only higher-based thunderstorms to develop.
"Lower-based thunderstorms create much more opportunity for tornadoes," Kottlowski added.
Will 2012 Remain Active with Tornadoes?
The active severe weather has quieted down a bit over the past couple of weeks, but more active severe weather is anticipated. In fact, another peak in severe weather is anticipated later this spring.
"Severe weather will get more active by the middle of April," according to Jack Boston, AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologist and long-range forecaster.
"The pattern will get more progressive," Boston said, meaning more storms will cross the country.
"April is one of the more volatile months," Kottlowski weighed in. However, he cautioned that "unless we see another cold air mass come down from the north, severe weather could occur at any time this season."
There were 379 preliminary tornadoes reports from Jan. 1-March 25, 2012. That is well above the average number of tornadoes from 2005-2011 during the same time period. Graph from the Storm Prediction Center.Plot of the annual running total of U.S. tornadoes. The only year plotted in which the number of tornadoes surpassed the number Jan. 1-March 25, 2012, during the same time period, was in 2008 when there was 491 tornadoes. Graph from the Storm Prediction Center.AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Heavy Thunderstorms Today. Maybe Some Snow Friday Night
Mar 28, 2012; 8:03 AM ET
Comments
1. The storms today along the cold front may produce hail and gusty winds. The dew points are low, so once again, the storms will be elevated in nature which typically means hail and wind will be the main impacts. We will also see storms in Kansas and Missouri and across eastern Texas. In those areas, the storms may produce large hail and strong wind gusts.
2. I did post a map below showing the snow potential for Friday night into Saturday. The GFS says no, the Euro is slower and the NAM is faster and farther south with the snow. In any case, we are looking at the potential for some wet snow, but by Sunday, it will all be gone and mild weather will return.
I do stress that the operational models in the longer range should be used with a grain of salt. They continue to be inconsistent with the storms and extent of the cold/warm air. The NAO will go slightly negative and the PNA is going negative, so we continue to get mixed signals between the operational models and the climate indices.
Some Heavy Storms along the Front
Mar 27, 2012; 8:50 AM ET
Comments
1. I said in a tweet this morning not to trust anything beyond day 5 on the models. The last couple of weeks, the models have been doing a poor job with the overall pattern. They flip-flop with every run and there's no consistency. I am really not sure what is going on because there really is not really clear indicator. All the indicators including the SOI, PNA and NAO are bouncing around right now ,so trying to grasp anyone indicator or series of indicators on the longer range is just about impossible. So basically, I am sticking to the forecasts within the five-day cycle for now.
2. The next two days, we have a cold front pushing across the eastern part of the country that will produce occasional heavy thunderstorms. Most of the storms will be elevated with hail and gusty winds the main impacts. Elevated storms basically means the base of the storms are higher above 7,000 feet on average. Most thunderstorm bases are down around 5,000 feet on average.
That's all I have for today.
Deadliest Aspects of Severe Weather
With severe weather season coming soon, AccuWeather wants to ensure your inclination and knowledge so that you are better prepared for whatever Mother Nature may throw your way. Understanding severe weather is the first step to preparing for an extreme threat.
The leading cause of weather-related deaths in the United States is flooding, according tofloodsafety.com. An average of 96 Americans die annually due to flash flooding. Although flooding is often the result of hurricanes and lengthy rainstorms, it can also occur any time the ground cannot handle the amount of moisture brought into a particular area. A broken levy or rapid winter warm up could also cause a flood, so make sure to have the essentials and an evacuation plan ready for when the water starts to rise. Heavy rains can create a flash flood in the blink of an eye when the ground is too hard to take on moisture. Texas is the most flood-plagued state in America due to its hard soil. Always keep a dry destination in mind to avoid being caught up in a fight with a flash flood.
Windstorms are the leading cause of fatality due to weather worldwide, almost doubling flooding on the global level. Hurricanes, tornadoes, and other variations of high wind are Mother Nature's haymaker, claiming more than 13,000 lives per year. This high number is the product of the worldwide population not having practical shelter from wind. Many communities around the world lack an area to protect themselves from wicked winds. In the United States, an average of about 56 people die every year in the grasp of a tornado. To properly prepare for severe windstorms, finding an underground area will be the most important key to survival. If that is not possible, seek shelter in a sturdy building such as a home, office, or church. Laying flat close to a strong interior wall while covering the head and vital organs will offer the best protection from falling debris. When possible, never choose a room above ground level or around any glass or windows.
Lighting is another fatal aspect of severe weather, totaling roughly 55 deaths per year, according to a study completed by the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Lightning can strike the ground up to ten miles away from where the storm cloud might be. Sometimes "bolts from the blue" occur when there are blue skies as far as the eye can see, but a bit of rogue electricity touches down. "It is most common for sparks, to occur lingering behind a thunderstorm, rather than in one or before," said Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck. A safe shelter when conditions are favorable for lightning can be any structure that has a roof, walls, a floor, and has basic plumbing and wiring. The plumbing and wiring are to ensure safety over long periods of time, if necessary. Wiring is crucial in a storm shelter to allow for open lines of communication with the outside world. When lightning is in the area, however, always stay away from bathtubs, sinks, and electronic equipment when possible due to their ability to conduct electricity. Although lightning is attracted to metal, cars and other enclosed vehicles are a safe haven during a thunderstorm and should never be exited. Compare which states are statistically the most prone to lighting in a study done by the National Lightning Safety Institute here.
During extreme thunderstorms there are other dangerous weather phenomena that can strike in a moments notice. Downbursts occur when humidity from warm air gets pulled into the clouds. This moist air turns into a column of water that falls out of the center of the storm, sending a burst of wind in all directions. "Winds in a downburst can sometimes exceed 100 miles per hour, turning into a more severe downburst most commonly referred to as 'microbursts,' said Smerbeck.
Related:
Squalls are another weather risk to always have in mind in the midst of severe weather. "Squalls are a skinny line of intense weather that is going to hit hard and be gone. They typically ride in cold fronts and can occur during a thunderstorm or a Great Lakes snowstorm."
Though hail only produces only one death per year on average, it is a type of severe weather not to get soft over. Hail can prove to be more than troublesome to aircraft, as it is one of the leading concerns for pilots during thunderstorms, and is one of the most expensive natural hazards, factoring insurance claims. A few seconds of hail a half an inch or bigger can translate to billions of dollars spent in repairing damages to roofs and cars.
Increase your safety by ensuring the availability of all basic necessities such as food, water, shelter, and the AccuWeather.com mobile app available on all of your favorite mobile devices.
Severe Storm Threat Ohio Valley to Deep South
By Bill Deger, Meteorologist
Mar 23, 2012; 11:25 AM ET
A slow-moving storm system will cut into the warmth across the eastern third of the nation today, but it won't come without a cost.
Summerlike showers and thunderstorms will erupt throughout the day and in a scattered nature from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast, ruining an otherwise beautiful day in many areas.Some of the storms are turning severe, especially from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South, with damaging wind gusts and up to tennis ball-sized hail.
The large twisting nature of the weather system responsible for the thunderstorms will aid in tornado formation. Generally, any tornadoes that develop will be weak. However, if they target a populated area, there could still be damage, injuries and loss of life.
So far today, there have been a total of 8 tornado reports.
If a severe storm or tornado-related warning is issued for your area, seek shelter immediately.
RELATED:
Not Enough Rain for Drought-Stricken Southeast
Dying to Shoot Tornadoes
Are Tornadoes More Powerful Due to Climate Change?
St. Louis, Mo.; Evansville, Ind.; Lexington and Louisville, Ky.; Cincinnati, Ohio; Memphis and Nashville, Tenn.; Birmingham and Huntsville, Ala.; and Rome, Ga., are among the cities at greatest risk for severe storms.
Though conditions are not as favorable, areas farther north including Chicago and Detroit could still see a rattling thunderstorm.
More than an inch of rain could fall in less than an hour in some of the heavier storms, which will quickly lead to water buildup in low-lying, poor drainage and urbanized areas.
While the rain is much-needed in some areas, flash flooding is dangerous and should always be taken seriously. Never drive through areas where water is covered or flowing across the roadway!
The threat for drenching and locally strong storms will shift toward the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday. Damaging winds and hail will be a possibility from the stronger storms that erupt from Virginia to Georgia later in the day.
Radar snapshot from when a tornado was reported in Troy, Ala. Click to see an Interactive U.S. Weather Radar.
Latest Storm Reports:1:26 p.m. CDT: A tornado was reported in Opdyke, Ill.
1:14 p.m. CDT: A tornado touched down in the Heritage Creek area in Fern Creek, Ky., east of Louisville.
1:09 p.m. CDT: Police scanner has reported a tornado touchdown east of Tamaroa, Ill.
12:38 p.m. CDT: Schools in Du Quoin, Ill., have gone into tornado warning mode. Picture of the wall cloud from the Zeigler Elementary school web cam.
12:31 p.m. CDT: @Henry_Margusity tweeted: Tornado on the Ground near Dowell and north of Elkville, Ill. Police are tracking. Golf ball-sized hail was reported near Harrisburg, Ill.
12:14 p.m. CDT: A funnel cloud was spotted 5 miles north of De Soto, Ill.
11:36 a.m. CDT: Public reported a funnel cloud east of Fruitland, Mo.
11:33 a.m. CDT: Fire department reports that a possible tornado touched down briefly 1 mile west of Neelys Landing, Mo.
11:11 a.m. CDT: Tennis ball-sized hail hammered Jackson, Mo.
9:34 a.m. CDT: A tornado damaged a house and a barn 1 mile south of the Troy, Ala., Airport on Oak Grove Road.
9:29 a.m. CDT: A tornado was spotted west of the Troy, Ala., Airport, heading eastward toward the airport.
Live Tracking: Severe Storms, Tornadoes
Tornado in Elkville, Ill. Photo tweeted by Jayson W. By Meghan Evans, Meteorologist
Mar 23, 2012; 2:11 PM ET
Some storms are turning severe from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South with damaging wind gusts and up to tennis ball-sized hail.The large twisting nature of the weather system responsible for the thunderstorms will aid in tornado formation. Southern Illinois into Kentucky have been under the gun since the midday hours.
RELATED: Pictures, Videos of Tornadoes Spinning Up
A line of nasty thunderstorms are stretching across eastern Illinois near Champaign and western Indiana to north of Evansville, Ind. The primary threats of these thunderstorms are damaging wind gusts and large hail. It is not out of the question for an isolated tornado to develop.
Feisty storms could reach the Chicago area by 5:15-5:45 p.m. CDT and the southern suburbs even sooner.
Southern Alabama and southern Georgia have also been in the path of dangerous, tornado-producing thunderstorms.
Generally, any tornadoes that develop will be weak. However, if they target a populated area, there could still be damage, injuries and loss of life.
So far today, there have been a total of 12 tornado reports.
If a severe storm or tornado-related warning is issued for your area, seek shelter immediately.
Latest Storm Reports:
3:25 p.m. EDT: Law enforcement reported seeing a tornado on the ground in Kolomoki Mounds, Ga.
1:57 p.m. CDT: A tornado briefly touched down 2 miles southeast of Carter, Ill.
1:26 p.m. CDT: A tornado was reported in Opdyke, Ill.
1:14 p.m. CDT: A tornado touched down in the Heritage Creek area in Fern Creek, Ky., east of Louisville.
1:09 p.m. CDT: Police scanner has reported a tornado touchdown east of Tamaroa, Ill.
1:49 p.m. EDT: A possible tornado damaged roofs and downed trees near Dothan, Ala.
12:38 p.m. CDT: Schools in Du Quoin, Ill., have gone into tornado warning mode. Picture of the wall cloud from the Zeigler Elementary school web cam.
12:31 p.m. CDT: @Henry_Margusity tweeted: Tornado on the Ground near Dowell and north of Elkville, Ill. Police are tracking. Golf ball-sized hail was reported near Harrisburg, Ill.
12:14 p.m. CDT: A funnel cloud was spotted 5 miles north of De Soto, Ill.
11:36 a.m. CDT: Public reported a funnel cloud east of Fruitland, Mo.
11:33 a.m. CDT: Fire department reports that a possible tornado touched down briefly 1 mile west of Neelys Landing, Mo.
11:11 a.m. CDT: Tennis ball-sized hail hammered Jackson, Mo.
9:34 a.m. CDT: A tornado damaged a house and a barn 1 mile south of the Troy, Ala., Airport on Oak Grove Road.
9:29 a.m. CDT: A tornado was spotted west of the Troy, Ala., Airport, heading eastward toward the airport.
AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Two More Days of Storms. Getting Ready for Summer FX
Mar 23, 2012; 9:27 AM ET
Comments
1.
I am starting to work on the summer forecast. As I tweeted this
morning, one of the issues will be the El Nino and just how strong the
El Nino will come on this summer. Most of the climate models say that a
weak El Nino should be underway by summer. If that's the case, what we
typically see are cooler temps in areas of the Midwest that are right
now having well above-normal or summerlike temps. We also see numerous
severe thunderstorms and nocturnal storms hitting the Midwest and Great
Lakes. In fact, while tornadoes are low, you see an uptick in wind
damage across the Midwest and Great Lakes. I hope to have maps ready
next week.
2.
Below are the maps for Today and Saturday's storms. Impacts will mainly
be hail and gusty winds, but with any upper-level low, quick-hitting
tornadoes can spin up in the storms.
AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Heavy Storms Become More Widespread Friday and Saturday
Mar 22, 2012; 8:37 AM ET
Comment
Most of the severe weather will be located across southern Alabama and parts of Mississippi and also into parts of Arkansas and Missouri where storms will develop under the upper-level low. The tornado threat will remain on the tail end of the front across southern Alabama.
Dry air wrapping around the upper low will poke holes in the cloud cover Friday which will lead to more thunderstorms developing under the upper-level low and a more widespread area of heavy thunderstorms from the Ohio Valley into the South. We will probably see the same thing happening Saturday in the East. The impacts both days will be large hail and strong winds with the odd tornado spinning up in the more intense storms.
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