Warmest Spring in Years to Fuel Active Severe Weather

Mar 8, 2012; 12:19 PM ET

An active severe weather season is anticipated in the U.S. during spring of 2012 with the most widespread warmth since 2004.

"As far as the forecast for the spring of 2012, we do feel like it's going to be a mild spring for most of the nation from the eastern Rockies into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes area," Paul Pastelok, expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, said. "At least two-thirds of the nation could wind up with above-normal temperatures."

The Northeast will be mild to start, while the central Plains and western Texas will be a particularly warm zone this spring.

An exception to the mild weather will be the Pacific Northwest, where temperatures will be below normal.

Active Severe Weather Season Forecast
An above-normal number of tornadoes is forecast for this season with water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico running above normal for this time of year. The active severe weather season follows a deadly year with a near-record number of tornadoes in 2011.

Typically, 1,300 tornadoes strike the U.S. a year. There were nearly 1,700 tornadoes in 2011, falling short of the record 1,817 tornadoes set in 2004.

Rounds of wet weather with an active start to the severe weather season are in store for the Deep South, including eastern Texas and the Gulf states, during March.

The rain early in the season will be beneficial for drought-stricken areas, including southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the western Florida Panhandle. Near-normal precipitation is expected in this zone for the entire spring.

"Areas that seemed to miss out on frequent severe weather last year may see an uptick this year," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.

More frequent bouts of rain and severe weather will migrate northward to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys, which were not hit as hard as the Deep South in 2011, mainly during April and May.

A string of violent storms scratched away small towns in Indiana and cut off rural communities in Kentucky as an early-season tornado outbreak killed dozens of people on March 2, 2012. (AP Photo/Ernest Coleman)

Above-normal rainfall is in store for the Tennessee and Ohio valleys as cooler, unsettled weather settles in the region during May.

"The Tennessee Valley wild card will be whether cut-off lows bring below-normal temperatures and unsettled weather to the region during May," according to Pastelok.

While portions of the South will have welcome rain and above-normal rainfall this spring, drought conditions may worsen in central and southern portions of Florida. Dry conditions are expected for central and southern Florida for most of the season. The increasing dry conditions may also lead to a high fire danger throughout this spring season.

"By the summer, the pattern in Florida may flip around with more episodes of wet weather," Pastelok added.

Warming Up in the Rockies, Plains
The central Plains and western and central parts of Texas will be particularly warm this spring, once a large dome of high pressure shifts westward and dominates the weather.

The change to drier, milder weather is expected to occur in April and May. Temperatures will climb above-normal, especially across Nebraska and Kansas and western and central Texas, with below-normal rainfall. The persistent dry and mild weather is not good news for the already drought-stricken Texas and the Four Corners region.

A skeletons of dead fish lay on the ground of a nearly dried up pond at the Gene Howe Wildlife Management Area on Aug. 2, 2011 in Amarillo, Texas. (AP Photo/Michael Norris)

However, across eastern Texas, episodes of rain this winter have already begun to chip away at drought conditions. Some more episodes of wet weather, especially earlier in the season, will continue to provide some relief to communities in eastern Texas.

Farther north, following a devastating year of flooding for some areas of the Midwest in 2011, farmers and residents are likely wondering what this season will bring. Fortunately, there is a low risk of flooding this year for rivers in the northern Plains with a lack of substantial snowcover.

Warmth Early for the Great Lakes, Then Roller-Coaster Temperatures
"The spring [temperatures] will start out well above normal through the Great Lakes but may head into a back-and-forth pattern for April and early May, more of a typical spring," Pastelok said. "Snow chances will be limited through March with a small chance for a couple of events in April."

The Upper Peninsula of Michigan, northern Wisconsin and northern and central parts of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan will receive above-normal precipitation this spring.

Overall, despite some cool periods and chances of snow, most of the Great Lakes will end up with above-normal temperatures this spring. Chicago and Milwaukee will have above-normal temperatures and near-normal precipitation.

Unsettled Periods For Some in the Northeast; Mild
Spring fever alerts are issued for the Northeast with a mild start to the season expected for the balance of the region.

It will be a nice and mild March for the I-95 corridor, spanning Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston. Cities across the interior Northeast, such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo, may even have a milder March than areas farther east.

Despite mild weather, there will still be some rain events in March, especially for the Appalachians.

Temperatures will flip-flop more during April and early May with some quick cool shots arriving before significant warming occurs late in May into June. With quick-moving storms, precipitation will turn out near normal.

Cool and Unsettled in the Northwest; Cool California Coast
Seattle and Portland are both forecast to receive above-normal rainfall with a cool, unsettled weather pattern lingering during this spring in the Pacific Northwest.

"Mountain snow will linger in the Northwest, at times in the Sierra Mountains," Pastelok said about the early part of the spring.

Cool, damp weather could even last right through May with a storm track into the Northwest. "It will be a slow recovery on temperatures late in spring into the summer," added Pastelok.

While the interior valleys and deserts have near- to slightly above-normal temperatures this spring, the coastal areas will have a cool onshore flow from the Pacific. The marine layer will frequently bring in low clouds and fog late at night and during the morning for the coastal communities.

 

Warmest Spring in Years to Fuel Active Severe Weather

Why Was It So Warm Wednesday?

Mar 7, 2012; 8:55 PM ET

Even though there are still nearly two weeks of winter left this year, Wednesday felt like spring had already sprung for parts of the U.S.

"The unseasonably warm weather is mainly in the East and across the Plains," AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Brian Edwards said. "It's not bad out in California, but it's cooler up in the northern Plains, the northern Rockies and the Four Corners region. The widespread warmth has mainly been across the central East."

Warm air being pushed up from the tropics and the Gulf has caused warm temperatures today.

"The reason you have all this warmth is due to a large area of high pressure at the surface that's set up off the East Coast," said Edwards. "So, the flow around that high pressure system is clockwise and it pumps in a lot of warmer air from the south. Warm air comes up from the Gulf region and from the tropics. All that warm is being funneled up into the Ohio valley, the Tennessee valley, the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast."

With the warmer air, precipitation will also move in on Thursday.

"The warm air is out ahead of a front approaching from the West which will bring some rain to a lot of places Thursday," said Edwards. "It will start to rain first in western New England and western parts of the mid-Atlantic. That will transition into the rest of the Northeast and remainder of the mid-Atlantic Thursday evening."

Today's warm weather set record high temperatures and provided above-average warmth for parts of the U.S. At the AccuWeather Global Headquarters in State College, Pa., for example, the temperature was 23°F higher than the normal high temperature for March 7.

"There have been some record highs reported today, especially in Pennsylvania and New York," said Edwards. "Dubois, Pa., set a record today, as did Watertown and Rochester, N.Y. We're seeing scattered record-high temperatures mainly across the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast."

Parts of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana and Oklahoma will receive some rain and severe weather on Thursday.

Looking Ahead

Weekend temperatures are not expected to be as warm as the middle of this week.

"It will turn cooler for Friday into Saturday as another area of high pressure builds in behind that front," said Edwards. "But, temperatures will moderate again as we get into Sunday and early next week ahead of another storm."

While the weekend may be cooler, much of the U.S. will experience unseasonable warmth throughout next week.

"The opportunity for any kind of wintry precipitation is slowly dwindling," said Edwards. "In the near term, we don't really see any kind of winter weather on the horizon. After the brief cool temperatures this weekend, we'll see another warm snap next week."

AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Adrienne Veilleux talks more about the warm temperatures in the video below

 

Why Was It So Warm Wednesday

Strong Storms Forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

Stormy skies photo from Photos.com.

Mar 7, 2012; 12:05 PM ET

 

Thunderstorms are forecast by AccuWeather.com to erupt over portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas beginning Thursday.

The initial thunderstorm area will generally be well southwest of communities hit by violent thunderstorms and tornadoes last Friday into Saturday. A zone of showers and rumbles of thunder will swing into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys Thursday.

A storm system dropping across the West through the middle of the week will swing into Texas and the southern Plains by Thursday.

From this position, a return flow of warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, strong winds aloft and rising air over the region will provide a favorable environment for thunderstorms spanning Thursday into Friday.

There is the potential for a few of the storms to become locally strong to severe. Large hail and flash flooding appear to be the biggest threats for the region with localized damaging wind gusts.

Areas from northeastern Texas through Arkansas, including southeastern Oklahoma and the northwestern corner of Louisiana, seem to be the mostly likely swath with favorable atmospheric conditions for strong thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and evening.

RELATED:

Beneficial Rain for Southern Plains

On Friday, the threat for locally severe thunderstorms will shift eastward across Mississippi and Alabama.

According to Severe Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We will be carefully watching how the storm system plays and any adjustments will be made to the forecast."

"Texas has not had a major severe weather outbreak so far this season and usually by now the Lone Star State has had one outbreak by this point," Kottlowski said.

Once the storm system begins to move again this coming weekend, thunderstorms could erupt farther to the north over the Mississippi Valley and also to the northeast in portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. However, the setup does not resemble anything close to the outbreak that occurred late last week.

Strong winds over the region into tonight are not a sign of approaching severe weather, but rather merely a return of warmth.

There is an indication that the storm system may stall and reorganize (reload) over Texas and the South Central states this weekend.

It could be that energy will be released in the form of rounds of drenching rain, instead of repeating gusty thunderstorms from eastern Texas to the Ohio Valley this weekend into next week.

Strong Storms Forecast for Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas