Feb 20, 2012; 10:57 AM ET
Monday, 11:30 a.m.
The much-advertised storm came to pass over the weekend. The worst part of it from a forecasting aspect from what I can see was the northern extent of the precipitation. It never got close to the Mason-Dixon Line, and the snow vs. no snow line is clearly evident in the Monday morning visible satellite image
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Aside from that, though, the snow came as expected, as did the heavy rain farther south, and the severe weather across the South, stretching back into Texas.
The storm is gone, now, and there will be a pretty rapid turnaround in the atmosphere over the next 24 hours or so. Here are the forecast 850mb temperatures for tomorrow evening
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That freezing line a few thousand feet off the ground could translate into surface temperatures approaching 60 with full sunshine and any kind of a breeze, especially a month from now with even higher sun angles. Tomorrow that won't be the case from parts of Kentucky and eastern Tennessee into northern North Carolina and Virginia because of the snow cover, as well as a result of clouds and perhaps a shower. But that snow cover will vanish in short order during the middle of the week as the air mass remains that mild, then gets even milder by late Thursday
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I am quite confident of 60-degree warmth from portions of eastern Colorado and Kansas into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, as well as portions of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. With that kind of warmth, and a cold front approaching from the northwest, there's every reason to believe there will be another outbreak of severe weather, starting in either southeastern Texas or Louisiana, and then marching downstream across the South later Thursday and Thursday night, and heading into the Southeast on Friday.
It's the kind of air mass that has me absolutely stoked for the coming spring, not to mention summer. I was just talking with someone about planning out the riding season, and taking on challenges that are 1) way beyond our capabilities, at least current ones, and 2) were not remotely on our radar screens a year or two ago. For me, it has already been a fantastic winter riding season, as I've lapped my previous best first two months of the year in terms of miles and even ability. Bring on the sunshine, bring on the longer days, and bring on the warmth!
Sorry for my temporary diversion! I got sidetracked for a second. Speaking of best starts to the year, have you seen the precipitation totals in Southeast Texas for the year-to-date after Saturday's downpours? College Station second wettest start to a year on record; fourth wettest start at Hobby Airport; sixth wettest start at Houston Intercontinental Airport, and 12th wettest start to the year at Galveston. Granted, precipitation deficits rung up last year alone were on the order of two feet or more, but this is certainly helping to restore some water to the system that was severely drained last year. Let's hope this continues, and there's a decent chance of it Thursday, and perhaps again early next week.
While these buds of early spring weather are all well and good by my standards, I also know that it remains February, and I see Canada about to turn colder. Much colder, in fact. While this is merely a forecast of temperatures over a seven day period from the GFS ensembles, take a look at the projections for the period February 27 to March 4
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Granted, that's not necessarily a cold look across the South and in the East, but cold, arctic air will amass to our north, and any time a cold front passes late this week and especially next week, some of that cold air will come southward. Right now, much of it appears to be aimed at the West or Rockies, and less at the Plains, and even less at the East. Still, it's reason to temper the enthusiasm of a jump start to the spring season.
After all, we can't doubt Phil and his forecast, can we ?
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