Feb 22, 2012; 10:04 AM ET
Discussion
The La Nina continues to weaken, and as you can see in the video, the ocean temps are coming up which means we will probably be neutral or even go into an El Nino by late spring. The implications of the La Nina weakening and going away are major for the rest of the year. I really thought that the pattern would have changed by now and that we would see a negative NAO and at least one big storm, but I guess that is not going happen. I got the La Nina weakening right but the pattern changing wrong.
Here's my concern for the rest of the year. I don't believe the year will feature extreme events. The severe weather system will be normal or perhaps below normal, and the hurricane season will probably be below normal in regards to the number of storms. However with that said, perception is everything when it comes to the weather. It will only take one tornado to wipe out a town for the perception to be that the season was active again. It will only take one hurricane to hit the U.S. coast for the perception to be the hurricane season was active. So while I think the year as a whole is not going to be very extreme as we had seen last year, the perception depending on what happens might be different.
As for the weather the next couple of days, the maps below and the video show my thinking on the snow and severe weather. I don't think the Euro model is correct with a storm off the Northeast coast because again the NAO is not negative and therefore the storm should cut up through the eastern Great Lakes as the GFS and NAM show. It will snow across the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast on Friday with amounts 2-6 inches. I will show that on a map tomorrow.
Severe weather should be limited to mainly hail and high wind reports, although a few tornadoes are possible across parts of Mississippi and Louisiana Thursday
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