Wednesday, February 22, 2012

South, Tennessee Valley Severe Weather Risk

Feb 22, 2012; 9:57 AM ET
Another round of angry skies and localized severe weather will visit part of the South into Friday. (Photos.com image)
Locally severe thunderstorms will sweep through the Tennessee Valley and portions of the South.
A cluster of thunderstorms over the Tennessee Valley to the southern Appalachians today will bring locally gusty winds and hail, ahead of a larger severe weather event slated for later Thursday into Friday.
During Thursday, as a cold front dips into building warm, moist air during the afternoon and evening, look for thunderstorms to ignite from Tennessee southward to the northwest Gulf Coast area.
During Friday, the storms will re-ignite farther east or surviving storms will continue to progress eastward to the northeastern Gulf Coast and the southern Atlantic Seaboard.
Since the front is expected to make significant forward progress, odds are against widespread flash flooding, even though much of the Deep South was drenched with rain over the weekend. However, there can be isolated incidents of flash and urban flooding. Blinding, short-lived bursts of rain will be more common and mostly a risk for travelers.
In many cases, like last weekend from northern Florida to the Carolinas, the rainfall portion of the storms will be welcomed.
Since the storms will become locally severe, there is the potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail
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Concern that a strong upper-level disturbance moving in from northern Mexico will fuel the storms in the South has diminished. It appears this system will be very slow to move out of Mexico and will be too far away to add extra fuel to the thunderstorms.
Even so, there is still a risk of the strongest storms producing a few tornadoes later Thursday into Friday in the South and the Tennessee Valley.
As a result, people will want to stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions, as well as official watches and warnings as they are issued
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Farther north over part of the Ohio Valley Thursday and the mid-Atlantic Friday, the overall strength of the storm system and trailing cold front will generate gusty winds. In some cases, the wind can be accompanied by heavy showers and/or thunderstorms.
That system can bring showers and thunderstorms to part of South Texas Friday into Saturday, an opportunity for more rainfall
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