Mar 12, 2012; 10:12 AM ET
Monday, 11:35 a.m.
And many will be broken. Shattered. Wiped out. In all my years of studying the weather, I can never ever recall seeing a run of warmth that we are now entering. And by 'run of warmth', I'm talking not just intensity of the warmth, but the duration of it. For at least the next 10 days, if not two full weeks, temperatures will average 15 degrees above normal over a huge area from the eastern Plains/eastern Dakotas and Midwest to the central and northern Appalachians. That's at least 10 days AVERAGING 15 degrees (and, in many cases, MUCH, much more) above normal. There will be some closer to 20 for the next 10 days.
The remarkable thing about it? There is unanimous agreement on it with all of the models. GFS? Check. Gfs Ensembles? Check. Canadian? Canadian Ensembles? NAEFS? Check, double check, and triple check. European? European ensembles? European weeklies? Yes, yes, and yes.
Here's a sampling of the GFS ensemble 7-day means from tomorrow through next Monday:
How about the second week? Not AS warm, but certainly very, very far above normal for the period Tuesday, March 20 through Monday, March 26:
Um, anyone think the groundhog was right at this point?
Look at a sampling of the GFS 850mb temperature anomalies for Sunday evening:
Very revealing in many ways! The core of the warmth at that time is centered over the Midwest and Great Lakes into southern Ontario, and the core of that bullseye is about 20C above the norm. That's just jaw-dropping in my book.
I, of course, am loving it. I managed to grind out my first century ride of the season on Saturday, and it was with temperatures starting in the low 30s and ending up in the low 40s, with a wind frequently gusting over 20 mph. It so happened it was the best possible time in my schedule with the least amount going on, so despite the cold, I did it. But for outdoor enthusiasts such as myself, the upcoming weather will be far, far better for such endeavors. I already know one chore that awaits me this week, and that is the annual yard and garden spring cleanup!
The unspoken issue with all of this is that it is so warm so early that there is a growing potential of problems down the road. I can already play the conversation in my mind with one of the local fruit growers when I see him - 'you're killing us! The apple trees are going to think it is May and start to bud and blossom, and there will be a frost in April.' That's one of the big problems that we face with such an insanely early start to the growing season. It's TOO early, and could lead to big problems if and when that frost does happen. And in spite of how warm it has been and will be, you have to believe it's likely to happen even in a pattern that gets back to near normal.
It will also mean an early start to the allergy and bug season. They don't tend to affect me as much, but for many that will be an issue. On the other hand, it means an early start to the grilling season. Golf courses will be opening up, if they haven't already (Jim, give me a ring - I'll be down soon!). And with the time change, we'll actually get to enjoy these nice, warm days with the extra hour of daylight tacked on to the end of the day!
Overall, I'm in favor of this pattern, though I know somewhere down the road there will be a price to pay. I hope it's not a very hefty one!
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