Mar 19, 2012; 7:27 AM ET
Comments
1. Don't let anyone kid you about using analog years to predict the weather the rest of the spring or the summer. The weather pattern that we are currently in is so exceptional and extreme, it does not match up with any analog year that I can even remember. In this pattern, you need to forecast the weather almost day to day and not try to outsmart the weather. I have heard that April is going to get cold, I have heard that the summer is going to be cold in the East, I have seen May getting cold, and I have even seen the word drought like last year being said out there. So honestly, I am not sure how the late spring and summer will play out at this point because the pattern is just so extreme and we are transitioning from La Nina to El Nino.
2. The upper-level low over Arizona this morning will produce severe weather across central Texas today. The shear is way up there, so I would be concerned for some big tornadoes with the stronger supercells. Dallas to San Antonio is in the area of severe weather. The Rapid Refresh simulated radar shows that area on my map below filling in with supercell thunderstorms later this afternoon through the evening.
3. The upper-level low will take most of the week to cross the country, so expect severe storms under the upper-level low and on the east side of the upper level. I am going to deal with the severe weather on a day-to-day basis because of all the factors and time of the year.
4. I did add a heavy thunderstorm area from the Appalachians into northern Virginia. A small upper-level low will move across central Pennsylvania this afternoon and produce scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail.
No comments:
Post a Comment