Mar 5, 2012; 2:00 PM ET
Thunderstorms from Thursday into Friday could bring large hail to the Arklatex. Photo by Nolon B. of golf ball-sized hail that fell on Nashville, Tenn. Friday March 2, 2012.
Thunderstorms are forecast by AccuWeather.com to erupt over portions of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas beginning Thursday.
In areas recently slammed by deadly and destructive tornadoes, the quiet weather will continue for at least a few more days. The initial thunderstorm area this week will generally be well southwest of communities hit last Friday into Saturday.
A storm system forecast to drop across the West during the first half of the week will swing into Texas and the southern Plains by Thursday.
From this position, a return flow of warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, strong winds aloft and rising air over the region will provide a favorable environment for thunderstorms spanning Thursday into Friday.
While the overall intensity and exact coverage area of the thunderstorms has yet to be determined, there is the potential for a few of the storms to become locally strong to severe. Large hail appears to be the biggest threat for the Arklatex region.
At this early stage, it appears areas from northeastern Texas to central Arkansas, including southeastern Oklahoma and the northwestern corner of Louisiana, would be in the area favorable for strong thunderstorms. However, this area could shift by a hundred miles or more and be delayed or accelerated, depending on a number of factors.
There is an indication that the storm system may stall and reorganize (reload) over Texas and the South Central states in general late in the week.
According to Severe Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We will be carefully watching how the storm system plays out later this week and adjustments will be made to the forecast."
"Texas has not had a major severe weather outbreak so far this season and usually by now the Lone Star State has had one outbreak by this point," Kottlowski said.
Once the storm system begins to move again this coming weekend, thunderstorms could erupt farther to the north over the Mississippi Valley and also to the northeast in portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. However, the setup does not resemble anything close to the outbreak that occurred late last week.
Despite episodes of snow in some northern states this past weekend, the overall weather pattern appears to be more like April over much of the nation may continue to advance the magnitude of severe weather events by a month or more.
"On the other side of the coin, on a positive note, this could be another generous rainfall for portions of Texas, if the storm moves along very slowly," Kottlowski added.
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