Feb 20, 2012; 1:36 PM ET
A climate modeler from the University of Victoria, who is also a lead author of two IPCC reports has calculated that emissions from Alberta's oil sands will only have a very small impact on global warming.
Andrew Weaver and colleague Neil Stewart found that if all the hydrocarbons in the oil sands were mined and consumed, the carbon dioxide released would raise global temperatures by about .36 degrees C. That's about half the total amount of warming over the last century, according to the Winnipeg Free Press article.
When only commercially viable oil sands deposits are considered, the temperature increase is only .03 degrees C, according to the story.
If all of the abundant natural gas in the world was burned it would warm the planet by at least 3 degrees celsius. Surprisingly, burning all of the oil in the world would only raise the temperature by less than one degree C.
Emissions from burning coal are a much bigger problem
According to the paper, which was published in the journal Nature, the clear threat is the burning of coal. The research team concludes that burning all the globe's vast coal deposits would create a whopping 15-degree increase in temperature.
Excerpt from the Free Press............
"This idea that we're going to somehow run out of coal and natural gas and fossil fuels is really misplaced. We'll run out of human ability to live on the planet long before we run out of them," said Weaver.
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Note: this analysis only accounts for emissions from burning the fuel. It doesn't count greenhouse gases released by producing the resource because that would double-count those emissions. (via the Canadian Press and Winnipeg Free Press)
Clearly, there are serious, regional environmental concerns in regards to the oil sands, but this report just focuses on the potential impact on global temperatures from the emissions of the oil sands, especially when compared to the burning of coal.
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