Mar 27, 2012; 7:26 AM ET
Tuesday 10 a.m.
Temperatures tumbled to the teens and 20s from New England into much of Pennsylvania last night. At Gaithersburg, Md., the low was 28 degrees, but it stayed above freezing at Reagan National Airport. Recovery starts today, with the afternoon temperatures going to or past 50 in Philadelphia, 55 in Pittsburgh and 65 in Chicago. And even though another cold front will reach Chicago late tonight and the East Coast on Thursday, the air behind that front is not as cold as the air mass now in place across the Northeast.
We know that forecast accuracy decreases with time. The predicted upper-air flow patterns on the GFS (US model) and ECMWF (the European model) for early next Thursday are in poor agreement. Here, the GFS is on top and the ECMWF version is below.
Oddly, the European model as the eastern trough farther east than the GFS has it, whereas on the West Coast, its western trough is farther west than the GFS. This means the wavelength between features is much greater on the ECMWF than on the GFS.
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