Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Joe Lundberg | Running out of Superlatives to Describe the Warmth

Mar 14, 2012; 10:03 AM ET
Wednesday, 11:30 a.m.
Another passle of records were either tied or broken on Tuesday all across the country. At least 40 locations reached new highs for March 13 in over a dozen states from the eastern Rockies to parts of the Northeast. And more will go down for the count today, specifically in the middle of the country between the Rockies and the Appalachians. There's just no hint of arctic air from the Rockies on east, or deep into Canada for that matter.
I'll cite as a specific example the Tuesday evening ride that I've been hosting. This is the fourth year of it, and despite the fact it was the beginning of the season, the ride was only 21 miles (for many experience cyclists, that's not very far!), and the sun set about 7:15 with a 5:30 start, we had 27 riders show up! And we did it in shorts and short-sleeved jerseys basking in sunshine and 70-degree warmth! The normal high here for the date? 45. It was a fantastic turnout on a spectacular evening, even if it was a tad windy when we started. Wow. 'Nuff said.
And this is being accomplished with the jet stream just farther north than usual. The real upper-level ridge is actually way to the NORTH in eastern Ontario and Quebec:
That relatively flat, upper-level flow transforms into a full-fledged high amplitude pattern by Sunday:
That's a strong upper-level ridge anchored over the Mississippi Valley, and it's one that will promote an expansion and growth of the current warmth. In other words, if you think we've seen a lot of records go down already, you haven't seen anything yet! Graphically, here's what it might look like:
Temperatures are already running well above normal for the first 13 days of the month. That includes a +7.6 in Minneapolis, +8.5 in St. Louis and +9.6 in Chicago. With the prospects of a week or more with temperatures at least 20 degrees above average each day in these cities and surrounding areas and only modest cooling the last week of the month, it is quite conceivable that some all-time monthly records will not just be broken, but obliterated!
The West, unfortunately, is not going to enjoy this May-like warmth. As you can see from the image above for Sunday, there's a deep trough digging into the West, and it will mean cool, wet weather the rest of the week into the weekend with unusually low snow levels to boot.
As warm as it will be from the Rockies to the Appalachians, there will be some places in the East that don't cash in on the warmth, or at least not nearly as much and definitely not the persistent warmth. In fact, if you look at New England right now, it's sunny and in the 60s in central and western Connecticut right now, while it's cloudy and 45 in Boston with a northeast wind blowing. That type of coast to inland contrast will be felt more often than not along the mid-Atlantic coast and much more so in eastern New England through the weekend. I do believe there will be more of a west wind breaking through to the New England coast sometime next week, allowing some record warmth to reach places like Portsmouth, N.H., and Boston.
In the meantime, words are getting harder and harder to choose to describe this warmth, as it shows no signs of letting up deep into next week.

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