Irina a Flood Threat to Southeast Africa

Mar 5, 2012; 12:01 PM ET

Tropical Cyclone Irina was over the southern Mozambique Channel at the time of the satellite image, taken Friday, March 2, 2012 (NRLMRY image)

Irina has unleashed gusty winds and heavy rainfall to parts of Mozambique, South Africa and Madagascar this week.

As of Sunday, EST, the center of Tropical Cyclone Irina (14S) was near 27.6 south and 34.1 east, or about 120 miles southeast of Maputo, Mozambique. Movement was to the south at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 45 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Current satellite shows only scattered convection around the center of the system which continues to limit the intensity of the system.

Tropical Cyclone Irina will move in a southerly direction over the next 24 hours. Irina is expected to remain off the southern Mozambique and northern South Africa coast during this time. This will bring wind and rounds of locally heavy rain to the coast; however, given that the storm is so small, impacts will be limited to coastal areas.

A trough crossing the southern part of the continent will attempt to pull Irina to the southeast as it moves nearby, but it is expected to miss this connection and return back to the north and west making landfall on Wednesday or Wednesday night in southern Mozambique as a minimal cyclone.

Given this expected track, coastal wind damage and flooding problems are expected from northeast South Africa into southern Mozambique through the middle of the week

Irina a Flood Threat to Southeast Africa