Mar 7, 2012; 11:15 AM ET
Wednesday, 11:35 a.m.
Over the past week or so, there has been a lot of ups and downs in the weather. Obviously, the biggest news story was the severe weather that actually had two parts to it. The first part was comparatively minor but still contributed to the overall outbreak of severe weather during the middle and latter stages of last week. But it was very early in March, and true to form, some snow fell in a lot of places from the Midwest and across the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic states. To put it bluntly, two extremes one right after the other!
Such has been the pattern of late. The extremes will still be a part of the forecast going forward, but they will be very lopsided in favor of the warmth. And the progressive nature of the pattern that we have seen all winter long appears unending. Even though the jet stream will be bodily farther north than we'd normally see in the middle of March, it will still be humming along.
One of the very real evidences of that fast flow aloft is the upper-level trough coming across the northern Plains toward the Midwest this afternoon:
It is driving a cold front down through the Front Range of the Rockies and across the central Plains into the Midwest. That front will be off the Northeast and mid-Atlantic coast by Friday morning:
There will be a quick shot of arctic air behind this front, flying across the Midwest into the Great Lakes tomorrow into Friday, then across the Northeast into the mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. But as fast as the cold air drills in, the cold will quickly retreat. Look at how the upper-level ridge quickly pops back up in the East by Saturday evening:
Take a look again at that image. Where is the main jet stream flow? It comes in through the Northwest, then flattens out across the U.S. - Canadian border before flowing off the New England coast. That is was to the north, and that pattern of above normal heights over most of the country from the Rockies on East is likely to continue deep into next week. The side-by-side comparison of the European and GFS height anomalies for the latter half of next week looks like this:
That leads to a pattern of almost relentless warmth. Look at the Canadian ensemble 10-day forecast:
No matter how you slice it, there's a lot of warm air flooding the country right now, and despite the brief cool down late this week into the start of the weekend, it's the proverbial oasis of cold in that vast ocean of warmth. Spring is here, and it is here to stay. Next week we could be looking at widespread 70s during the second half of the week from the Plains to the East. Not bad approaching St. Patrick's Day!
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